Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I do miss the laughter emoji 

 

[johncam]

High sinking South again.............

[mushymanrob]

Not read all the comments, too many, but from my POV high pressure in December sat over the UK = Anticyclonic gloom likely...

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

High sinking South again.............

Was just gona say following on from my previous post the gfs 06z is the PERFECT example!!!!not saying it will play out like that but the fear is always there!!!lets hope its wrong!!

[NewEra21]

Hoping this run is a bit of a mild outlier, seems a bit different from the past few runs.

[Staffmoorlands]

7 minutes ago, johncam said:

High sinking South again.............

Dreadful 6z GFS. Cloudy mild high - Yuk

[NewEra21]

This run does seem to be at the top of the pack

 

[Chesil View]

We'll stick with the Ecm for now Shall we. Lol

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Dreadful 6z GFS. Cloudy mild high - Yuk

looked ever so dry the high hardly moved throughout the whole run,but i wouldnt think it would be mild .maybe temps of 5-8c nationwide.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Think that run will be near the top of the ensembles. Shows just how important it is that we get the high North. If it fails, it will just fatten up over us and we'll have gloomy 5c weather!

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

looked ever so dry the high hardly moved throughout the whole run,but i wouldnt think it would be mild .maybe temps of 5-8c nationwide.

The only thing that weather is good for is travelling around the festive period (if we're allowed too)!

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

This run does seem to be at the top of the pack

 

Its been at the top end very early on for the last few runs!yet the ensembles are lower!weird!!

[sebastiaan1973]

In my opinion the latest GFS is a downgrade, please notice the shape of the cyclone west of Greenland and the winds south of that. More in a west to east direction, in stead of south to north.

[Daniel*]

On 11/12/2021 at 08:43, Ali1977 said:

EC ENS are certainly cooling down , this was last nights so possible colder than this.

Aye for London btw

[NewEra21]

Let's just hope that 06z wasn't a trend, after somewhat consistent runs showing the high getting further north and into GL. This run is a kick in the teeth and a reminder to us all just how fickle this whole situation is. Lets hope for a better 12z.

[Staffmoorlands]

GFS widespread 7-10c for Christmas day. 

 

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi Nick,quality information regarding Northern blocking can you say if both years when that happened was there

an EQBO /La-Nina/MJO-6-7

Dec 2005 was both weak La Nina and eQBO, MJO was in COD mostly that December, so had little impact.

Rather underwhelming 06z GFS op for snow lovers.

But, the bigger picture is looking good - although the RMM plots are still hesitant, the VP200 indicates to me the MJO wave moving east through the western Pacific into phase 8 region. 

There is a tropical cyclone  forecast to develop from 96W and head west towards the Philippines - which may be why the models are stalling/slowing the MJO eastward progression in phase 7. But the TC may, in combination with MJO wave driving over western Pac, serve to amplify the Aleutian High poleward - which will generally amplify the troughs and ridges downstream too. So the Pacific is looking to help longer term with a more amplified flow working through to the N Atlantic and while putting pressure on the TPV.

 

[Battleground Snow]

Time to wheel out p1 when the OP is poor

Edit, control run has the 2nd bite that @Mike Poole has been monitoring

Edited December 11, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[TSNWK]

On 11/12/2021 at 10:20, tight isobar said:

Lol- 6z blanks Greenland - and goes all Scandinavian- the probably route in fairness..

This for me set the alarm bells running on the 06z.  The umpth to climb up not there so flops towards scandi and then down

[tight isobar]

it’s 1 run - from perhaps the most progressive/ mobile searching run of the suites @6z. Go easy on yaselfs ere !!!

[NewEra21]

I know the weather does whatever it wants and not what any of us want. But I'd rather just have a few lows coming off the Atlantic than this potential mild gloomy high just sitting over us for a few weeks before eventually sinking.

At least behind lows there's always a chance of a decent 24-48hr toppler. Don't get me wrong I don't want anyone to get flooded out over Christmas etc. Just hate the thought of this high sitting here, bringing mild gloominess for a few weeks and then just sinking.

Rant over, sorry guys!

[Staffmoorlands]

5 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I know the weather does whatever it wants and not what any of us want. But I'd rather just have a few lows coming off the Atlantic than this potential mild gloomy high just sitting over us for a few weeks before eventually sinking.

At least behind lows there's always a chance of a decent 24-48hr toppler. Don't get me wrong I don't want anyone to get flooded out over Christmas etc. Just hate the thought of this high sitting here, bringing mild gloominess for a few weeks and then just sinking.

Rant over, sorry guys!

I agree. Nothing worse than a mild & cloudy high for a week or two as shown on some models. ECM offers a glimpse of hope for some colder weather over the Christmas period but I am not too hopeful of this at the moment 

[MP-R]

On 11/12/2021 at 09:09, Nick F said:

Dec 2005 - high built N over UK towards Iceland on Christmas Day - similarly strong TPV over Greenland, deep cold sinking south over NE Europe. That evolved into a ridge building N of the UK and into Norway allowing a brief but cold easterly after Xmas, brought some snow to parts of the east and SE. 

25 Dec 2005

27 Dec 2005

Followed by possibly the shortest breakthrough of the Atlantic ever. Wouldn’t mind a longer version of that scenario with the cold pool running a bit further west a la 1991.

As anything cold still looks at least a week away, it’s encouraging that from midweek it’s looking drier again so good for getting outdoors more easily. Fingers crossed for frost, fog and plenty of sunshine!

[ICETAB]

Pert 17 for Xmas Eve please...

[Bricriu]

In fairness this GFS run seems to be in line with the UKMO long range thinking. The form horse is the high to stick around close by and then sink. I suspect this evenings ECM run will show something similar. It's Frustrating.  I wish we could reverse the spin of the globe. MattWolves, can you make it happen with your positivity. Just like to add your posts nearly always make me laugh. Thanks for that