Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[TSNWK]

On 11/12/2021 at 06:47, Ali1977 said:

ECM seems to be heading in the same direction, need the ball on PV to the left of the sliver of heights to hold back to allow the heights to make it as far North as possible.

On this run . You have your wish @Ali1977

[tight isobar]

Nice - And that pac punch waa- will I’m sure be the key to de- formation of the vortex- obviously getting our high- to shake hands with him- would be abominable ..@ keep watching

[Ali1977]

Nice ECM at day 10  cold uppers already arriving 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ali1977

[Kasim Awan]

Good morning!

[mulzy]

Yes, a good day 10 from ECM.  Will the high topple slightly into Scandi and give us a monster easterly - who knows?

[TSNWK]

Day 10 ECM.. not sure really.. looks like it lost its climb toward. Greenland mojo ? 

[Chesil View]

Ecm says let's go to Iceland. Very nice.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Day 10 ECM.. not sure really.. looks like it lost its climb toward. Greenland mojo ? 

It’s likely go for a second attempt , if you see that shortwave energy ne of Iceland , that’s likely to run se towards Scandi .

Upstream looks okay with that amplified wave moving east across Canada this helps to pull back too much energy spilling east into Greenland .

[tight isobar]

A good illustration here of even a mlb- with such vast and deep cold now established in the upper latts, just how quickly an- inflow of cold could easily be obtained directly to our shores . Long may the evolving- evolution continue..

[chris55]

This is a nice ECM as we head into Christmas week.  Proper job with regards to WAA no toppler there!   
 

[ICE COLD]

Good morning yes that’s right Good morning the 00z’s have only gone and thrown out some decent output ( for once ) get in there

Edited December 11, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Nick F]

Morning.

A nice tease from EC at day 10, from then on you'd want heights to drop to the S of the UK under the ridge centred near Iceland to prevent the high from sinking and allow deep cold to be advected in from the NE.

The 00z GFS briefly follows a similar route but a day or 2 later, but it then implodes and shows the danger of heights not lowering over SW Europe and the ridge toppling with the deep cold over NE Europe dropping south to to the Balkans / SE Europe rather than towards us.

Still plenty for coldies to be optimistic about, most models currently agree that the ridge extends NW towards Iceland from around the 19th - but crucially we just need heights to lower over SW Europe, otherwise the deep cold is headed for SE Europe.

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Morning.

A nice tease from EC at day 10, from then on you'd want heights to drop to the S of the UK under the ridge centred near Iceland to prevent the high from sinking and allow deep cold to be advected in from the NE.

The 00z GFS briefly follows a similar route but a day or 2 later, but it then implodes and shows the danger of heights not lowering over SW Europe and the ridge toppling with the deep cold over NE Europe dropping south to to the Balkans / SE Europe rather than towards us.

Still plenty for coldies to be optimistic about, most models currently agree that the ridge extends NW towards Iceland from around the 19th - but crucially we just need heights to lower over SW Europe, otherwise the deep cold is headed for SE Europe.

The last three frames of the ECM show the southermost low trying to nudge into Iberia. If we can get some continuation on that it could be game on.   

[ICE COLD]

MOGREPS showing temps sliding down too

[Johnp]

I know it only gets looked at when we're either bored or desperate, but Icon really isn't feeling this potential cold spell is it!

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

I know it only gets looked at when we're either bored or desperate, but Icon really isn't feeling this potential cold spell is it!

Oh well done John that’s put my sat morn in a right downer now after feeling so high about other output

[Ali1977]

Here’s the EC MEAN at 240 from the last run - let’s see if we can have those heights a little further north on this run - 

[mulzy]

Ext EPS broadly similar to last night's - the core of higher heights still hasn't reached the optimal level of latitude but the good news is the there are significantly lower heights over the Med.  Trending the correct way albeit slowly.

[Ali1977]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Here’s the EC MEAN at 240 from the last run - let’s see if we can have those heights a little further north on this run - 

 

Better mean more vertical heights on the western edge compared to the 18z below - and lower pressure round into Italy 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

I mean gfs ensembles showing me temps of 10 degrrees and 5 by night for the next 10 days!that is frikkin balmy to me!how is that even possible under a high directly over us at this time of the year!!surely there shall be some crazy inversions?!!anyone got the temps from ecm?!i was thinking sub zero at night at the very least especially with no cloud!!

[Duane S.]

Yes, certainly better signs of trough disruption on the ECM mean D10

Hopefully leading to lowered heights in Europe, the key to getting enough latitude from our MLB.

We’re in the game for sure but on a knife edge. Pacific forcing is driving this one, it wouldn’t take much at all to scupper it but it would take quite a bit to improve it to what we want (deep cold and snow). Not quite making it but a nice frosty Christmas would be my punt right now. Whilst I hope I’m wrong but still a very acceptable outcome should it to come to fruition, and who knows where thereafter into the new year…

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

A good illustration here of even a mlb- with such vast and deep cold now established in the upper latts, just how quickly an- inflow of cold could easily be obtained directly to our shores . Long may the evolving- evolution continue..

Yes mentioned the depth of cold to the NE. Likely to have the effect of enabling heights to advect NW quicker than anticipated..  hence the models now showing such a move in just over a week's time which is within the semi-reliable timeframe. Looks like a deep trough forming to the NE cut back jet loop - UK can easily tap into very cold uppers without the high needing to make it to Greenland as shown by ECM this morning.

[Ali1977]

33 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I mean gfs ensembles showing me temps of 10 degrrees and 5 by night for the next 10 days!that is frikkin balmy to me!how is that even possible under a high directly over us at this time of the year!!surely there shall be some crazy inversions?!!anyone got the temps from ecm?!i was thinking sub zero at night at the very least especially with no cloud!!

EC ENS are certainly cooling down , this was last nights so possible colder than this.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ali1977

[knocker]

Despite some trough disruption/wave breaking towards the end of the ten day period causiung a slight wobble vis the position of the surface high

The ext mean anomalies this morning indicate little change with the NH profile

And the clusters pretty much support this view, albeit they will of course have various options

 

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by knocker

[damianslaw]

Core of heights heading to Iceland as someone else said. Light NE drift could be the order of the day as we approach Christmas. Wintry flurries perhaps for the SE?