Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[That ECM]

Not going to be required soon. Best spreading truck ever.

[Badgers01]

On 11/12/2021 at 11:40, TSNWK said:

This for me set the alarm bells running on the 06z.  The umpth to climb up not there so flops towards scandi and then down

Just shows that despite what many are saying this far from guaranteed … when historically has a high pushed north /north west this time of year hardly ever ! 
 

it is however providing interesting model watching whatever transpires ! 

[Ali1977]

There’s a blip in the ENS mean then it gets much better, best FI set yet 

[sheikhy]

Thing is how many 1st bites and 2nd bites and 3rd bites we willing to see!!once the 1st bite fails we gona gona looking for the 2nd bite and then 3rd bite!!vicious cycle!!!we need the 1st bite to upgrade as we get closer not diminish!!!it is what it is!!!heres to some snow over the new year!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

There’s a blip in the ENS mean then it gets much better, best FI set yet 

a blip around what time frame? but we cant look deep into fi because its not very realistic

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Thing is how many 1st bites and 2nd bites and 3rd bites we willing to see!!once the 1st bite fails we gona gona looking for the 2nd bite and then 3rd bite!!vicious cycle!!!we need the 1st bite to upgrade as we get closer not diminish!!!it is what it is!!!heres to some snow over the new year!!!

yes it can be frustrating.it may be a run thats not correct,but whats more important is the trend.lets hope the 6z isnt going to be the new trend of the high just hanging over us.we need to see it move northwards in time.

[MJB]

 

You'd take the Control all day long 

[Cold Winter Night]

The good developments for coldies continued this morning.

The EPS regimes chart speeds up the climb into BLO+ territory, giving ever more support to the arrival of significant blocking in N/NW Europe. There is also a tendency at 192h now to go to a more negative NAO. The upper left corner of this chart is gold for coldies, that would be widespread blocking to the N and NE.

Then on the clusters from 192h onwards, there is a clear tendency to move the High Northward, so the mouthwatering charts we've seen on GFS and GEFS are not that outlandish.
Some of the clusters also begin to lower height anomalies over SE Europe, that's good to see.

Dutch De Bilt ensembles, although not overly impressive yet, lower temperatures in the plume run by run, losing the milder options.
I would not be surprised if one of these days, we will see the bottom fall out on a number of members, if one of the clusters sees cold getting advected from the NE. If this option of a High between Norway and Greenland, like on EC Op, catches on, it will get more likely that this will happen.

All in all, absolutely nothing is guaranteed, but it's looking better for cold around and after Christmas by the day.
In my opinion there is no need to get anxious when a lesser run comes by (GFS 6z).

[Chesil View]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There’s a blip in the ENS mean then it gets much better, best FI set yet 

Indeed the op is quite out on a limb during the second half of the ens graph far enough off the beam to probably ignore in term of forecast reliability.  The most noticeable thing about that latter section is how many runs go cold/wintry.

Another point worth bearing in mind is the number of cold / snowy spells where the models try to get there a couple of times and fail or just miss before finally getting there at the third or fourth attempt.

Nicks F's comments about the developing mjo situation give some credence to this possibility.

[Crackerjack]

13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thing is how many 1st bites and 2nd bites and 3rd bites we willing to see!!once the 1st bite fails we gona gona looking for the 2nd bite and then 3rd bite!!vicious cycle!!!we need the 1st bite to upgrade as we get closer not diminish!!!it is what it is!!!heres to some snow over the new year!!!

I second that sheikhy, but I do love an occasional poor run as it’s so much less catch up reading for me as all the people on my ‘ignore list’ rise to the surface

here’s to a snowy Xmas holiday period Be that at the start or end of the holidays. Let’s get the cold in first as they say  

[MJB]

Decent I think 

[mushymanrob]

Theres no need to panic over the odd run here and there that dont show a preferred weather type.

The Anomalies retain high pressure very close/over the UK for a pretty lengthy spell, and as such theres always the reasonable chance of something much colder developing. Even if it doesnt, at least it wont be wet and windy... and imho ACG is rather seasonal, and more likely than snow.

[Methuselah]

Well, I, for one, will not be bouncing around the walls with anticipation just yet, on the strength of one or two rogue ensemble-members -- given that (as is true whatever the output) we are talking about one run from one model:

    

PS: As much as I love snow, I only tolerate cold weather. Were it not for snowfall, I'd rather things were mild!

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[minus10]

Hi Cold Winter Night,

Thanks for the update, more positive than the general feeling on here this morning. Still learning with some of these diagrams. Can you explain "in simple terms if possible" what the regime projection chart is actually relating to , particulary EOF2 and EOF1. Is it ensemble based with a similar pattern to the MJO. ? Many thanks

Ps sorry forgot to quote you...

Edited December 11, 2021 by minus10

[Staffmoorlands]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

Theres no need to panic over the odd run here and there that dont show a preferred weather type.

The Anomalies retain high pressure very close/over the UK for a pretty lengthy spell, and as such theres always the reasonable chance of something much colder developing. Even if it doesnt, at least it wont be wet and windy... and imho ACG is rather seasonal, and more likely than snow.

There is more chance of snow in a mobile pattern especially for nothern and western areas (polar lows, cheshire gap showers etc). This high is about as bad as it gets for wintry weather at this time of year

[Midlands Ice Age]

I have just spotted my all time best cluster.

Screenshot 2021-12-11 12.42.13.png

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The eagle has landed   (right on top of the UK)

It has many of the features we could dream about including the low pressures blocking in  the high to the south, south west and more especially the south east.

The wings are comprising of a 'warming' in both Scandinavia and also a new forming one in Canada.

Now that would really lock in the cold for a very long winter.

MIA 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[northwestsnow]

 GFS 6z aside excellent runs this morning ...

EC the stand out ...expecting upgrades for the Christmas period over the next few days as mjo moves through phase  7 ...

[SqueakheartLW]

Not so many colder options for Christmas Day today on the GFS 06z. At least if you want something dry and very cold or a chance of the white stuff that is. Far too many mild uppers charts on the 06z but most of them are dry at least. Here are the small number of colder charts with wintry potential at least

As you can see, a downgrade from 24 hours ago for the coldest options. However it is the post Christmas period that is throwing up some very interesting charts again on today's GFS extended run. As with yesterday there's some stonking charts here again and some real BOOM ones too.

P03     +390 hours away     850hpa temp -9.9C

P22     +396 hours away     850hpa temp -8.3C

P28     +402 hours away     850hpa temp -11.1C

P12     +414 hours away     850hpa temp -13.0C

P16     +438 hours away     850hpa temp -9.0C

P28     +450 hours away     850hpa temp -13.5C

P14     +474 hours away     850hpa temp -12.4C

P29     +498 hours away     850hpa temp -11.7C

P30     +498 hours away     850hpa temp -11.2C

P10     +534 hours away     850hpa temp -13.3C

P23     +534 hours away     850hpa temp -15.2C

P07     +558 hours away     850hpa temp -12.7C

P14     +564 hours away     850hpa temp -10.2C

P16     +624 hours away     850hpa temp -14.9C

P24     +624 hours away     850hpa temp -11.0C

P23     +642 hours away     850hpa temp -10.0C

P12     +660 hours away     850hpa temp -11.8C

P04     +696 hours away     850hpa temp -9.8C

Control     +702 hours away     850hpa temp -10.6C

P23     +714 hours away     850hpa temp -9.3C

P06     +762 hours away     850hpa temp -14.2C

P13     +768 hours away     850hpa temp -9.4C

P25     +780 hours away     850hpa temp -11.7C

P22     +786 hours away     850hpa temp -9.7C

P11     +816 hours away     850hpa temp -9.7C

P04     +834 hours away     850hpa temp -9.7C

P20     +840 hours away     850hpa temp -7.9C

[mushymanrob]

11 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

There is more chance of snow in a mobile pattern especially for nothern and western areas (polar lows, cheshire gap showers etc). This high is about as bad as it gets for wintry weather at this time of year

That depends on where it sits... moaning about it wont change a thing. To get cold conditions here we need high pressure to our North, and thats the point i was making. Theres plenty of time and a good realistic chance that the high will migrate Northwards. A mobile pattern like the one you mentioned would only bring transient snows like what we have seen recently. For a proper cold, snowy spell we need high pressure somewhere North of the UK, Greenland - Scandinavia. And that IS possible.

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z ensembles

to keep "the dream"  alive i'm sticking with the ECM 0z Op as my line of hope.

Looking forward to the ECM 12z to see where it puts the high pressure at 216-240 hours

Plenty of opportunity for a cold crisp Christmas week still IMO

[Cambrian]

The solid story of the next 10-15 days is a very welcome one of drying out, the total accumulated precipitation on the 6z GFS operational run is pretty much the same at day 3 as it is at day 15.

72h / 360h

 

Though not strictly meteorological charts, though sometimes important for fog, Pete @Ed Stone , this is reflected by the GFS soil moisture charts at 6h, 120h, and 240h, by which time the high pressure has done its job and doesn’t change much thereafter, the drying out as complete as it can get with such little daylight around the solstice.

6h / 120h / 240h - the pink colours show saturated ground, thankfully receding by day 10

  

Of course, the less solid story the models and us bunch are grappling with is the evolution of the high, particularly post-day 8 and where it’s going. For what it’s worth, I get the feeling that the GFS operational is over-complicating the evolution with consequent inter-run variability that’s in danger of missing the most straightforward evolution. 

The last few control runs, on the other hand, like the 6z control run here, have consistently shown the high at day 10 very near the UK and Ireland ridging north towards Iceland. Lovely crisp weather for the shortest day.

By the end of the run, at day 16,  a couple of days after Christmas, the high retrogresses west to the mid-Atlantic, elongated northwards, which brings us into a very promising looking northerly (note the polar high, tentative Aleutian ridge, split PV profile), which could well be where we’re most likely to get our next good snow from, i.e. UK high migrating west rather than north, with troughing down its eastern flank. 

Whatever happens, it’s the continuation of a fascinatingly different year of weather patterns and model outputs, with a good chance of at least seasonally chilly weather and perhaps even a wintry twist towards its end. 

[northwestsnow]

All eyes on the stratosphere....?

[feb1991blizzard]

just wondering, talking about the stratosphere, where's that ingham bloke that had connections at the uk met?, he really  accurately predicted that SSW last year.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

just wondering, talking about the stratosphere, where's that ingham bloke that had connections at the uk met?, he really  accurately predicted that SSW last year.

Not sure but those with met knowledge are monitoring 

[Eagle Eye]

On 11/12/2021 at 12:48, Midlands Ice Age said:

 I have just spotted my all time best cluster.

Screenshot 2021-12-11 12.42.13.png

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The eagle has landed   (right on top of the UK)

 

But I'm in the south not the north 

Yes certainly looking interesting, is the way I would describe it, a lot of chopping and changing to come I feel despite the fairly simple pattern from the outside view in my opinion it's very complicated and every mile change matters.