Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Mike Poole]

I just wanted to comment briefly after @Catacol excellent post in the other thread, which I don’t seem to be able to link.

I have in recent months completely given up on the GSDM as a forecasting tool.  I spent quite a lot of time gaining understanding of what is not a particularly easy concept, and I now reckon it was time wasted.  There are two reasons for that, the first is simple, the GSDM charts, and even AAM charts are not available any more for mortals like me.  But secondly, and more importantly, I am concerned that it doesn’t actually have much predictive capability, and proponents of it suffer from the benefit of hindsight - it seems to be a very good vehicle for pointing out after the fact why other people’s forecasts were wrong.  Not so much, for giving genuine insight into the future weather patterns, better than the models can do.

So I won’t be bothering with it any more.

[blizzard81]

Anyway onwards and upwards...... EC46 put to one side. Something in the more reliable timeframe. First day of winter 21/22.

 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Anyway onwards and upwards...... EC46 put to one side. Something in the more reliable timeframe. First day of winter 21/22.

 

Would be gaining deserved attention if it wasn't for this weekend

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Would be gaining deserved attention if it wasn't for this weekend

 

You are absolutely spot on. 

[Griff]

GFS doesn't know when to quit... 

Seems familiar all be it less amplified... Mini round 3 but milder? 

[blizzard81]

I have a gut feeling that the models, whether it be ops, ens, clusters or whatever haven't got a clue as we approach mid December. I think the reason for this (always a reason) is that we have quite a solid cold block building to our north east but the tpv seems to want to ramp up to our north west. Which will win out? Let battle commence as they say. Tonight's ecm op and seemingly its ens went full on for the vortex from the west. Will it be that simple? Something tells me.... No. 

Edited November 25, 2021 by blizzard81

[Griff]

  OK it's just for fun and my way of saying fi is throwing up some interesting scenarios. 

Vortex on the move yet again... 

[Uncertainty]

 

Is anyone else watching this?

That Arctic high? 
 

It’s not going to verify like that but fascinating that such a scenario is even on the table, very odd indeed…
 

 

[tight isobar]

I’ve snapped this frame : marker for the reason of the endless possibilities of a disruptive tropospheric polar vortex, and as b4 the outer equations @Especialy - Nina responses hold a lot of characteristic weight, to the non tuning of model alignment. And that is for around mid December, and the possibilities of the drainage of the temporary limit home based vortex.. looks to me - that-the bailiff wanted her out!!! We’ll go into mobility for sure.. but not for long.. I’m sure.!! @ pack those other upper layer bags missus , and look for residences elsewhere

Edited November 25, 2021 by tight isobar

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Uncertainy said:

 

Is anyone else watching this?

That Arctic high? 
 

It’s not going to verify like that but fascinating that such a scenario is even on the table, very odd indeed…
 

 

I am

 

[tight isobar]

On 25/11/2021 at 22:59, Griff said:

  OK it's just for fun and my way of saying fi is throwing up some interesting scenarios. 

Vortex on the move yet again... 

These Synoptics are of regulatory momentum right now, and have been in single sector courses for a while.. mid December, is to say the very least.. an interesting trigger point!!

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

These Synoptics are of regulatory momentum right now, and have been in single sector courses for a while.. mid December, is to say the very least.. an interesting trigger point!!

This could be epic!  

Edited November 25, 2021 by Griff

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

  OK it's just for fun and my way of saying fi is throwing up some interesting scenarios. 

Vortex on the move yet again... 

Nice Arctic high too, I wouldn't put  too much faith in the ec46... It's often wrong, even when it's showed constantly blocked charts over the years I've never had much confidence in it. This year there are so many conflicting drivers I'd pay even less attention to it's output than usual 

[Uncertainty]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

I am

 

Snake eyes?

Two black holes orbiting E and W of our domain is a real collectors item, especially given climatologically (Nina aside) you’d expect their signs to be reversed!

[tight isobar]

On 25/11/2021 at 23:05, Uncertainy said:

Snake eyes?

Two black holes orbiting E and W of our domain is a real collectors item, especially given climatologically (Nina aside) you’d expect their signs to be reversed!

. Again we face a bizarre season.@winter with conflict- and miss modelling at a short range.. as we gain.. keep this in mind @ la- Niña consequential.

Edited November 25, 2021 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Snake eyes?

Two black holes orbiting E and W of our domain is a real collectors item, especially given climatologically (Nina aside) you’d expect their signs to be reversed!

It’s day 14 of a gfs op - they probably will be by the mornings run ! 

[tight isobar]

The 2m, temperature plots .. and again they are telling short/mid term.. through the euro view it’s dip n, dive. With even current raw models tipping the knife edge notions of possible tap ins ..@rest well @ major blocking formats to be resolved.

Edited November 25, 2021 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ok folks its been a day of not so good model watching..poor 46 for instance...and stronger signs of a strong tpv around NE Canada as an example.

But do remind oneself that models are like underwear...they change on a daily basis...(at least I hope they do)

Not even December yet so let's get ready for some potential action this weekend,before it becomes less cold next week...well for the south anyway,if anything it looks to stay cold further North!

Brilliant late sypnotics from the 18z run...amazingly the vortex looks sliced in several pieces with a good chunk dropping through scandy...baring in mind how these models are going from showing a roaring vortex to an abliterated one over the course of a few days!

So it's goodnight from him,and its goodnight from me...to coin a phrase from the great 2 Ronnie's.

Anyway that's the end of my babbling...the missus is nagging me now

Edited November 25, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[tight isobar]

On 25/11/2021 at 23:21, MATTWOLVES said:

Ok folks its been a day of not so good model watching..poor 46 for instance...and little signs of a strong tpv around NE Canada as an example.

But do remind oneself that models are like underwear...they change on a daily basis...(at least I hope they do)

Not even December yet so let's get ready for some potential action thus weekend,before it becomes less cold next week...well for the south anyway,if anything it looks to stay cold further North!

Brilliant late sypnotics from the 18z run...amazingly the vortex looks sliced in several pieces with a good chunk dropping through scandy...baring in mind how these models are going from showing a roaring vortex to an abliterated one over the course of a few days!

So it's goodnight from him,and its goodnight from him...to coin a phrase from the great 2 Ronnie's.

Anyway that's the end of my babbling...the missus is nagging me now

The polar high won’t go away either.. and ties in with probable Pacific differentiations - via Nina construction

[Uncertainty]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s day 14 of a gfs op - they probably will be by the mornings run ! 

Yup hence the collectors item

Saying that if it keeps chucking out similar fayre over the coming days esp in Atlantic profile will have to take notice… it can spot a trend in that sector pretty much all it’s good for…

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What a very interesting start to winter this is. Don’t think I’ve ever seen so many northerlies crop up like this in quick succession. Also to note the small possibility of a scandi block forming later on next week will be good one to keep an eye on. 

However, as much as I like the cold, I much prefer an easterly, as they tend to be less powerful than northerlies like the one we are seeing. I’d ideally like to not see a repeat of this one coming in the next few days, as next time, we may not be so lucky in these parts. Grim and haunting memories of 2013 and 1953 suddenly hit home when they happen. We’ve been let off the hook big time in avoiding the big tides this time around. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The here and now...some really damaging winds being progged for tomorrow night. 70-80mph fairly widely?

[Battleground Snow]

Control throwing out something interesting in FI too

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS sniffing Scandi heights again in FI this morning…

[nick sussex]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

GFS sniffing Scandi heights again in FI this morning…

Interesting trend ! The jet digs south into central southern portions of the USA day 10 into 11 which helps and the main PV edges a bit further to the nw.