Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Griff]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

GFS sniffing Scandi heights again in FI this morning…

 

28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting trend ! The jet digs south into central southern portions of the USA day 10 into 11 which helps and the main PV edges a bit further to the nw.

 

 

Cool!

 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

GFS sniffing Scandi heights again in FI this morning…

It's sniffing something, although I've never heard it called ' scandy heights ' ... 

[Griff]

Gem says hi again, briefly, whilst JMA says good morning for real! 

All fi, all for fun on a Friday... 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Griff

[blizzard81]

I don't think I am the only one to be thinking this but....... Something seems to be stirring for mid December imo. 

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't think I am the only one to be thinking this but....... Something seems to be stirring for mid December imo. 

Whilst I would say there doesn't appear to be rampant zonality any time soon, there is also little appetite for favourable blocking either.

 

[PiscesStar]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't think I am the only one to be thinking this but....... Something seems to be stirring for mid December imo. 

I think the gfs has hinted at this.... Lots of ibbing and flowing if the azores high... Lots more amplification going in atm. Suggest another go around 12fh Dec, 

[Griff]

Ecm day 10 also interesting 

[Dennis]

GFS0z 

 

 

 

 

[That ECM]

On 26/11/2021 at 07:18, Dennis said:

GFS0z 

 

 

 

 

Cotswolds looking good tomorrow morning.

[Tim Bland]

ECM is similar to the above for tonight / tomorrow but next Friday caught my eye!  The front hitting the cold air gives a widespread covering as it pushes through. Would probably end up marginal but one to watch after this weekend… 

[mb018538]

Last night's ECM update shows the blocking signals of the last couple of ECM updates have gone now, and we're left with a sea of +NAO right through December.

With no zonal wind weakening forecast either, we could be seeing December end up being what autumn should have normally been?

[Eagle Eye]

I was so scared that it would fall off the charts today, thank goodness it hasn't, still a day to go you've got that band ,behind the main area in the east, that could be interesting looks to be a lot falling there 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Last night's ECM update shows the blocking signals of the last couple of ECM updates have gone now, and we're left with a sea of +NAO right through December.

With no zonal wind weakening forecast either, we could be seeing December end up being what autumn should have normally been?

It’s far from a strong signal at around 30 percent, lowering as we go on. Do t think we can take much from this.

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM is similar to the above for tonight / tomorrow but next Friday caught my eye!  The front hitting the cold air gives a widespread covering as it pushes through. Would probably end up marginal but one to watch after this weekend… 

Any chance of the 3am caption please.Looks wintry.

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I was so scared that it would fall off the charts today, thank goodness it hasn't, still a day to go you've got that band ,behind the main area in the east, that could be interesting looks to be a lot falling there 

Yep as I expected rain along the thames as the model gets closer in range typical! Enjoy the snow elsewhere

[Eagle Eye]

On 26/11/2021 at 07:53, Kentspur said:

Yep as I expected rain along the thames as the model gets closer in range typical! Enjoy the snow elsewhere

I have said that snow will stay away from water with this set up, I don't think I'll get much snow either

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't think I am the only one to be thinking this but....... Something seems to be stirring for mid December imo. 

As I mentioned the other day, MJO forcing into phase 7 may lead to the Azores high extending a ridge NE towards Scandi - as Euro trough weakens - which may allow a blocking ridge to build over Scandi as we head towards mid-Dec. This is dependent on whether the MJO wave is coherent as the GFS suggests, EC bullish with a weak signal in COD and also the TPV not extending too much across Greenland towards Norway, rather it stays centred over northern Canada.  

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I was so scared that it would fall off the charts today, thank goodness it hasn't, still a day to go you've got that band ,behind the main area in the east, that could be interesting looks to be a lot falling there 

I still wouldn't want to call this for midlands and south, away from higher ground 100m asl +. The ECM still shows a kind of "all sorts" from tonight until tomorrow afternoon, a "will it won't it" - I do not rule out some places getting an inch or two if everything falls right, but still in the "nowcast" for me. Of course, progressively more likely to be all snow the further north one is.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

I still wouldn't want to call this for midlands and south, away from higher ground 100m asl +. The ECM still shows a kind of "all sorts" from tonight until tomorrow afternoon, a "will it won't it" - I do not rule out some places getting an inch or two if everything falls right, but still in the "nowcast" for me. Of course, progressively more likely to be all snow the further north one is.

One things for sure the ecm has been playin catch up with the gfs in regards to this winter storm!the 00z ecm has pushed the winter storm further west into england just like the gfs has been forecasting for the last few days!!

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

As I mentioned the other day, MJO forcing into phase 7 may lead to the Azores high extending a ridge NE towards Scandi - as Euro trough weakens - which may allow a blocking ridge to build over Scandi as we head towards mid-Dec. This is dependent on whether the MJO wave is coherent as the GFS suggests, EC bullish with a weak signal in COD and also the TPV not extending too much across Greenland towards Norway, rather it stays centred over northern Canada.  

Looks muted or non existent to me Nick. Don't think we will get any help from the MJO in this instance...

[Tim Bland]

30 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Any chance of the 3am caption please.Looks wintry.

 

[bluearmy]

51 minutes ago, Nick F said:

As I mentioned the other day, MJO forcing into phase 7 may lead to the Azores high extending a ridge NE towards Scandi - as Euro trough weakens - which may allow a blocking ridge to build over Scandi as we head towards mid-Dec. This is dependent on whether the MJO wave is coherent as the GFS suggests, EC bullish with a weak signal in COD and also the TPV not extending too much across Greenland towards Norway, rather it stays centred over northern Canada.  

The eps are keen on dropping an upper trough through into Europe around day 12/13 

upstream will dictate if we can throw a ridge over the top of that and into scandi ……perhaps to much mobility still to allow that but it’s a chance and it wouldn’t take too much of a let up for it to stick.  Gfs is taking the spv the other side of the pole late on - that would encourage the tpv to allow height rises this side of the NH week 3. 

Edited November 26, 2021 by bluearmy

[carinthian]

Morning all . You just knew it , snow arrived overnight, the day before our ski season due to start tomorrow. Now postponed to 12 th December.

 Back to the charts below, GFS op  continues to throw up potentially exciting winter charts against its own mundane norm.  Certainly, I think something is a foot in the making of a cold block over Scandinavia. 10 days is a long way off of course but the foundations for cold are now taking place. With a jet profile shown below the cold will not disappear, however, the main tease is whether the mechanism in place can produce advection of real cold towards the British Isles ? I remain quite happy with what I see.

C

 

[damianslaw]

Interesting to see both GFS and ECM maintaining a rather amplified jet as we move through early December. Let's see if the trend continues. One key feature of 2021 as  whole has been a very weak jet.. 

[johnholmes]

With the predicted 500 mb I cannot see any deep cold or anything other than a brief N'ly in the 6-10 day outlook or indeed the 8-14 day one from today. The flow is too strong, its not mild for sure with heights over central England of around 540 DM. Unsettled, even disturbed, with surface lows a regular visitor, gales, snow for the higher hills even down to Snowdonia and the Peak District possible but also milder Tm air at times for southern areas. An active Atlantic for a 2 week spell would be my suggestion. Beyond that I leave to others.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

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Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

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