Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Dennis]

well maybe we get some good help in december 

[LRD]

A single frame in FI, I know, but I'm only posting this to highlight the continued FI trend in GFS for some kind of high pressure to our NE

Of course the trend might be wrong but it's showing at the minute

[Methuselah]

GFS at T+240:   To GFS at T+384: 

Surely those T850s must call for the first NW Group Drool of the season? And ski resorts wouldn't do too bad, either way!

[tight isobar]

On 26/11/2021 at 16:37, Mike Poole said:

I disagree, ECM is not the best model at within 24 hours!  It isn’t what it is designed for.  

Not saying the EURO4 is of course, but here’s what it is saying re wind gusts at T20, and you can see the cumulative snow chart up to T31 looks to be in the region west of the eye of the storm in the south.  

Wasn’t talking about snow/precipitation charts just today’s raw - operational, that’ll be the one closest to the nark of track etc for the nxt 12/24 hrs!..@ always is @12z imo of course.

[Cold Winter Night]

14 minutes ago, LRD said:

No way! Apart from Feb 2018 (and the odd isolated wintry couple of days here and there on other occasions), I've not seen proper winter since 2013. So, I'm being greedy. I've paid my dues 

That's true.

Just imagine what that would look like though. It would blow 1947 and 1963 out of the water, or more accurately, off the ice!

It's interesting nevertheless that GFS won't give up on those heights to the NE for several runs in a row now.
Those can deliver straight away via a Scandi High, or later on, by way of a Ural High putting pressure on the Strat vortex, if we need that.

[minus10]

30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS at T+240:   To GFS at T+384: 

Surely those T850s must call for the first NW Group Drool of the season? And ski resorts wouldn't do too bad, either way!

One thing for sure...there is going to be plenty of 'weather' as we head out of November and into December....and not all of it mild by all accounts. Very unsettled/disturbed picture unfolding for next few weeks....making up for previous benign Autumn (mainly). To those in the North East (Scotland & England) , stay safe tonight and tomorrow...

[Catacol]

10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Last night's ECM update shows the blocking signals of the last couple of ECM updates have gone now, and we're left with a sea of +NAO right through December.

With no zonal wind weakening forecast either, we could be seeing December end up being what autumn should have normally been?

I had a bit of a debate with Marco on Twitter about this. That ensemble chart has only a single day where the +NAO bar hits 50% (to my approximate eye anyway.) The remaining solutions outnumber it, and each are likely average to cold solutions for the U.K. As it happens I do think +NAO patterns will dominate for a while after week 1 of Dec but it definitely isn’t a forecast of a zonal washout and with the prevalence of blocking throughout the year so far I don’t think we will face too many days of roaring westerly or south westerlies.

What a pity the storm this weekend isn’t a month later. Would be a wintry cracker. That is the frustration with any wintry synoptics in late Nov or early Dec - they are just not quite able to deliver away from favoured spots. But a very interesting start to the season for sure.

[Dennis]

All the best to my UK friends into the night 

 

[Methuselah]

I just thought I'd compare the GEFS 12Z ensembles for Moscow and Bedfordshire:

    

    

[Battleground Snow]

Weak scandi surface high showing up on the ECM now

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, Dennis said:

All the best to my UK friends into the night 

 

I'm beginning to like you more and more Dennis...such a level headed and pleasant individual you are...best of luck to you also...not as though you'll need it in Norway...but you get my drift.

Ecm not without interest...namely a 2nd cold shot around day 5...further into the run perhaps a hint of another!!

But more pleasing to my eye is the fact the vortex looks much more disorganised.

[northwestsnow]

EC raises eyebrows tonight!

day 10 disclaimer...

[Tim Bland]

11 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM is similar to the above for tonight / tomorrow but next Friday caught my eye!  The front hitting the cold air gives a widespread covering as it pushes through. Would probably end up marginal but one to watch after this weekend… 

ECM this evening almost identical to this mornings run regarding Next Friday…

[LRD]

ECM 240 NH view

Interesting

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM this evening almost identical to this mornings run regarding Next Friday…

Makes a mockery of the rubbish tonight!!!

[Dennis]

10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I'm beginning to like you more and more Dennis...such a level headed and pleasant individual you are...best of luck to you also...not as though you'll need it in Norway...but you get my drift.

Ecm not without interest...namely a 2nd cold shot around day 5...further into the run perhaps a hint of another!!

But more pleasing to my eye is the fact the vortex looks much more disorganised.

true it will be a interesting week ..... @MATTWOLVES

[SqueakheartLW]

On 26/11/2021 at 16:58, carinthian said:

Interesting UKMO extended chart. Would indicate that the trough disturbance coming from the Atlantic is slow moving as it hits the cold uppers to the east . Some snowfall in the NE counties of England into the heart of Scotland. Still plenty of cold in place at 168t across much of the British Isles.

 C

Hope this is right. I am right where that red circle is

[blizzard81]

A much better ecm op run tonight. Next Friday's chart from tonight's compared to last night's. 

[minus10]

Of interest is how far the hp has been displaced sw at the end of the 12z run....

 

 

[Staffmoorlands]

After a dry autumn we are very much moving in to a very unsettled period with longer spells of rain and gusty winds. Temperatures generally above normal especially overnight. Hopefully, settling down in time for a frosty Christmas. Very much like the recent Met Office winter and contingency forecasts.

 

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, would have liked to see a couple more frames on this one:

JMA to T264 same evolution:

Both have a split trop vortex, it is inevitable that the purples are going to get more and more in play as we move into winter, it is a question of where they are.  Just going off these runs, and the fairly substantial numbers of GFS runs that have threatened a Scandi high, the Greenland lobe of the vortex, such as it it, seems to be the catalyst to push heights into Scandi.  This looks to me like an increasing signal into FI on the models and is definitely one to watch.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A much better ecm op run tonight. Next Friday's chart from tonight's compared to last night's. 

Yes mate it looks a hell of a lot better than some of the output we have seen recently...vortex looks more out of sorts.

That mid Atlantic ridge again trying to flex its muscles,and I have a feeling the strength of this could be making some eat there words...

If we could shift those Low Heights and vortex segment coming out of NE Canada we would be looking good for another push of Heights into Greenland there.

Much to ponder...but those Heights situated around the mid Atlantic could be coming to our rescue more than once for the foreseeable!

Edited November 26, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Alexis]

24 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

After a dry autumn we are very much moving in to a very unsettled period with longer spells of rain and gusty winds. Temperatures generally above normal especially overnight. Hopefully, settling down in time for a frosty Christmas. Very much like the recent Met Office winter and contingency forecasts.

 

 

? Temperatures look average at best.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The mean highlights that secondary colder shot mid next week,and tbh it ends on better note than the 0z did...nothing overly mild there to my eyes.

Not much in the op and the mean.. certainly a colder op than the 0z run.

Steady as she goes right now.

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread T240:

Note split trop vortex, yes more purple now as we head towards winter proper, but still split.  Still a signal on the Atlantic ridge but the spread shows the uncertainty here, so it might be on the move…to Scandi (like much other output) - well we’d need the clusters, including the T264+ cluster, because that is the relevant timescale.