Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[sheikhy]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Yeah 6z going for Scandinavia again.. we’ll await to what extent!!

Gimme that boom chart!!!!

[nick sussex]

Similar trend from the GFS 06 hrs run .

Some help will be needed with some shortwave energy cutting se to support the high .

[tight isobar]

On 27/11/2021 at 10:25, sheikhy said:

Gimme that boom chart!!!!

Huh itsa shrinking high cell on the 6z so we’ll see !??

[northwestsnow]

Well, the GFS is officially thinking of some kind of surface high across Scandy mid term.. 

A trend perhaps  ,nothing more at this stage, but interesting...

[SLEETY]

liking all this bitter air building over Scandi.you need it severely cold over there,if you want severely cold weather over here.

Just need a decent Scandi High to bring it over here,GFS is trying again!

Edited November 27, 2021 by SLEETY

[Griff]

Keen...  

[That ECM]

Something to keep the interest. T120 plus JFF

[TSNWK]

Giving it a good go.   Will be darn cold at surface in the east. And look at those uppers just over the channel

[tight isobar]

It’s going the correct way but making a pigs ear of it.. but the taping is opening - once again

[SLEETY]

bit further north with the high and the game would be on!/Lets see this trend continue!!

[TSNWK]

Nice 06z cold northerly blast mid to end of week and then different version of heights to our north east.  And by 240 we must be close to ice days in the south east..

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Nothing in the output showing a robust scandi high building at all to be honest. We will likely see transient colder shots as the highs and lows sequence (see below), but nothing more than that at the moment in my (clearly unpopular) opinion. 

it might be unpopular, but imho its accurate. The noaa charts are a long way off a scandinavian high, and it would be highly unusual for the ops to "beat" the anomaly charts in their timeframe.

[Battleground Snow]

If the vortex from the north west wasn't putting so much pressure on the block it would have more of chance of holding. Need that to be weaker than modelled.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

it might be unpopular, but imho its accurate. The noaa charts are a long way off a scandinavian high, and it would be highly unusual for the ops to "beat" the anomaly charts in their timeframe.

Those charts never showed the mid Atlantic ridge until after the ops had for many runs

[tight isobar]

On 27/11/2021 at 10:37, mushymanrob said:

it might be unpopular, but imho its accurate. The noaa charts are a long way off a scandinavian high, and it would be highly unusual for the ops to "beat" the anomaly charts in their timeframe.

But the only scenario in which they do is on these Synoptics-@easterlys...opS always sniff the easterly component 1st .. @ usually.

Edited November 27, 2021 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

I think it was Dec 2005 when the gfs was like a dog with a bone correctly forecasting a scandi high from 2 weeks out and all of the other models (including the ecm) were dragged kicking and screaming to the same outcome. One of those rare moments gfs trumped the ecm. Especially rare back then. 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

it might be unpopular, but imho its accurate. The noaa charts are a long way off a scandinavian high, and it would be highly unusual for the ops to "beat" the anomaly charts in their timeframe.

I'm following this, @Battleground Snow and I watched with interest and a bit of head scratching last winter as the the crazy fi charts seemed to hint at surprises. This was also evident on the old thread a couple of weeks ago regarding the current spell. 24 to 48 hours there was a flip from mild to northerly. Interesting times

[Staffmoorlands]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I think it was Dec 2005 when the gfs was like a dog with a bone correctly forecasting a scandi high from 2 weeks out and all of the other models (including the ecm) were dragged kicking and screaming to the same outcome. One of those rare moments gfs trumped the ecm. Especially rare back then. 

It was a cold cloudy high from memory though in Dec 2005.Not much snow around. 

[northwestsnow]

Well..

As a coldie,I'd bite your hand off for gfs 6z...

Very seasonal weather with lots of fog and Frost I imagine...

Alternative is an alternating TM / PM Atlantic pattern...decent perhaps for hilly NW Britain ,not much use for the vast majority...

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by northwestsnow

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

It was a cold cloudy high from memory though in Dec 2005.Not much snow around. 

It wasn't a classic old skool scandi high but it certainly was nice to have in time for Christmas. 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS continue with their Scandinavian high pressure theory with low pressure to the south 

of U.K. in the 9 / 10 day range dragging some cold continental air over.Wil be checking over the next

couple of days if this maintains this scenario,also keen eye on ensembles.

[tight isobar]

Which ever way ya dress ya salad.. it’s yet another run cold cool throughout!, we just need to wait to see if we can turn that .. into colder - see ya at the 12z?

[northwestsnow]

Further to my post ...

snapshot of the benefits of removing any westerly interference at this time of year...

Short days = harsh Frosts.. 

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by northwestsnow

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all from a very snowy Eastern Alps this morning. Woke up also to pictures on the news over here showing the damage caused by the North Sea storm over Blighty. Yes, the models still not in 100% agreement of how @nick sussex short wave/ disturbance between Iceland and Ireland shown on the chart below from GFS is going to interact with the Northerly jet and the developing colder block close to the British Isles. Period 120-138 t still could lead to various outcomes out at day 5/6. Personally, still think we are better placed to end up with a (old school Scandinavian high ).

C

Just a follow up from my post earlier this morning. The GFS 06h run showing the possibility of some snow across NE of the British Isles next Friday morning ( north of the Humber Flue ).This is a similar profile indicated by the UKMO extended shown yesterday. Whether any snowfall is transient or grinds to a halt is still in the balance. However cold blocking is now becoming more prevalent in some of the runs.

 C

[clark3r]

We are well overdue an easterly in December