Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Ali1977]

Just now, throwoff said:

Major storm incoming.

Decent chance for nearly the entire country to see falling snow

Only 56 people viewing the mod thread?

Whats going on....

Most move to regionals during an actual storm or snow event!! 

[Mucka]

Long range.

While GFS toys with the idea of height rises to our NE in the 10 day range and a possible Scandi high I think another Atlantic ridge looks the more likely scenario for any new wintry potential in first half of  December, at least at first.

 

GFS runs today 10 day+ range.

 

My guess is any  blocking ridge, should it develop, will be further W in the Atlantic rather than through the UK, something not completely dissimilar to the pattern we are currently setting up though hopefully more amplified with it perhaps building into Scandi later.

That is best case scenario and quickest way out of the unsettled spell we are heading into after a chilly few days with a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow and frost.

Although I expected this to be more NW flow with a mix of Arctic and PM air I thought the pattern would remain amplified for longer but the PV has other ideas it seems.

Snow?

Looks like high ground  Northern and Central England, more especially inland NE  will be best placed but sleet/snow could fall anywhere tomorrow on blustery winds though many more especially in the W/SW will stay dry while others see rain.

Pennines looks well placed so anyone E Pennines say Braford down to Sheffield may have the best chances. 

Evaporative cooling will play a part so anywhere low lying hit with heaviest may see rain to turn to sleet and snow and back again but very hard to predict where.

 

[Beanz]

19 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Major storm incoming.

Decent chance for nearly the entire country to see falling snow

Only 56 people viewing the mod thread?

Whats going on....

Not nearly the entire country, in fact not even half of the country has a 30% chance…Looking at the latest hi -res models we don’t have the cold we need.   MetO don’t think so either in their latest warning.

”while most areas will see spells of rain, there is a small chance of this turning to to snow on Saturday morning” 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Beanz

[sebastiaan1973]

Second half of december looks like an anticyclone dominates the weather.

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Second half of december looks like an anticyclone dominates the weather.

If that’s correct ……….

[Gizzy]

2 hours ago, Updated_Weather said:

Yep don’t think I’ve seen this either.. wouldn’t want to witness it well I would, just hope people keep safe!

It seems the calm before the storm here at the moment, though the wind is now starting to pick up and clouding over.

Based on north east coast, around 5 mile inland, 100m asl, I think it is going to be a very interesting, very noisy and potentially very worrying evening and Saturday.

[damianslaw]

35 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Second half of december looks like an anticyclone dominates the weather.

That last chart is interesting a blob of orange over the Pole.. pressure exerted on the PV perhaps. If we can lower heights over southern Europe a cold easterly feed would ensue. All conjecture but perfectly plausible. Heights are low over Iberia on the middle chart.

[bluearmy]

Arwen looks to track through Yorkshire, the East Midlands and then arc se and exit approx Kent/Sussex border 

this brings higher dp’s further west and you would expect tonight’s precip will be non white to the east of that track and possibly 20 miles or so west of it in the uncertain area. 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Arwen looks to track through Yorkshire, the East Midlands and then arc se and exit approx Kent/Sussex border 

this brings higher dp’s further west and you would expect tonight’s precip will be non white to the east of that track and possibly 20 miles or so west of it in the uncertain area. 

Leicester in the uncertain area mate?!!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Leicester in the uncertain area mate?!!

Could even be too Far East at the moment !

let’s see what ecm thinks at six ……should be the most accurate track 

[Battleground Snow]

Pretty cold UKMO 144.

[tight isobar]

On 26/11/2021 at 16:14, bluearmy said:

Could even be too Far East at the moment !

let’s see what ecm thinks at six ……should be the most accurate track 

Ecm the 1 @ this point @ track @ trace.always trumps

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm the 1 @ this point @ track @ trace.always trumps

I disagree, ECM is not the best model at within 24 hours!  It isn’t what it is designed for.  

Not saying the EURO4 is of course, but here’s what it is saying re wind gusts at T20, and you can see the cumulative snow chart up to T31 looks to be in the region west of the eye of the storm in the south.  

Edited November 26, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Are we gonna get that push of Heights into scandy is the question here!

Edited November 26, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Cold Winter Night]

GFS throwing up heights again to the Northeast. Can't ignore that it is doing that consistently now.

Here at +264h. Just a little nudge North and West and we're in for fun and games.

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I disagree, ECM is not the best model at within 24 hours!  It isn’t what it is designed for.  

Not saying the EURO4 is of course, but here’s what it is saying re wind gusts at T20, and you can see the cumulative snow chart up to T31 looks to be in the region west of the eye of the storm in the south.  

15-20 cm in some spots in the south midlands according to that - imagine if that was right

[DavidS]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Are we gonna get that push of Heights into scandy is the question here!

It’s going to get pushed through, but it does keep trying.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

15-20 cm in some spots in the south midlands according to that - imagine if that was right

It won’t be! And even if it was it won’t all settle because it’ll be on wet ground to begin with.  UKMO warning has 2-5cm, 8 on high ground for this area, if it does turn significantly to snow.  Nowcasting event really from here, not much more the models can tell us.  

[LRD]

10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Are we gonna get that push of Heights into scandy is the question here!

No 

Keeps trying to do it though. Also, an ECM cluster (about 20 members) is indicating Scandi high pressure according to Gav partridge in one of his videos

 

[Methuselah]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Are we gonna get that push of Heights into scandy is the question here!

That, I think, Matt, is the $sixty-four-thousand question; because, if it does come to dominate, it could set the scene for our winter? That said, I suspect that this early in the season, it'll fail to gain much traction. Anyhow, even should it fail, this time, there are still a good four months left, in which its descendants can give us a Beast?

    

It's always nice to see -15-17C T850s so early in the season?

 

[LRD]

GFS really is trying to get a Scandi High going

Would be great to get that edging westwards with every run, eventually centring itself between Iceland and central Norway from mid Dec to mid Feb

[carinthian]

Interesting UKMO extended chart. Would indicate that the trough disturbance coming from the Atlantic is slow moving as it hits the cold uppers to the east . Some snowfall in the NE counties of England into the heart of Scotland. Still plenty of cold in place at 168t across much of the British Isles.

 C

[Mapantz]

If you want to know if it'll snow in your back yard, please use the storm Arwen thread, or your own regional threads.

Many thanks!   

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

GFS really is trying to get a Scandi High going

Would be great to get that edging westwards with every run, eventually centring itself between Iceland and central Norway from mid Dec to mid Feb

Let's begin with humbly asking for just a week or so, instead of going for a two month GIN-High straight away!

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Let's begin with humbly asking for just a week or so, instead of going for a two month GIN-High straight away!

No way! Apart from Feb 2018 (and the odd isolated wintry couple of days here and there on other occasions), I've not seen proper winter since 2013. So, I'm being greedy. I've paid my dues