Model output discussion 11/12/21

[Ali1977]

I think the lower heights have helped, and will stop the high sinking so quick. Poss cold from NE here!! - maybe a big GEM ‘esk 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

18z...

can we get that high into scandy ...

[Kasim Awan]

Much better resolvement of the potential shift towards Scandi. Should be eough to bring in an easterly before xmas (on this run).

[tight isobar]

On 11/12/2021 at 22:32, Kasim Awan said:

I'm liking the lower heights in the med on this run.

- but I’ve ignored any Iberia influences, as given the polar holding pattern, any prop up is not the be all. It either amplifies and tracks north.. or collapses And stagnates!!- even myself cold hard as.. has to gage the crossroads now.. it’s jackpot or.. a dead gold fish..

Edited December 11, 2021 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

With a DB Pacific frequency, it has to keep the interest.. pure impact on the vortex. It’s an all layer effects there!

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

- but I’ve ignored any Iberia influences, as given the polar holding pattern, any prop up is not the be all. It either amplifies and tracks north.. or collapses And stagnates!!

I agree but it never is a yes or no, nor a "first attempt or nothing" thing when getting the blocking in. The gfs 18z is basically a more developed version of the ecm 12z op which, imo, was more inline with the gem 12z and ukmo...in terms of the pattern change to a more Iceland / Norway based high and low dive sw

From my seat all models are at various stages of correctly modelling this, as per above, ecm is a very clinical model so it is likely 1/2 between a greenie and a norway / iceland high which could be why it was poor. I'm hopefull for the ecm 00z, though nothing is set in stone we have seen these patterns fail before.

[blizzard81]

Even the pub run can't pull one out of the bag.

[frosty ground]

The energy over the top phase gets trotted out every year but the real issue is getting the jet to curve back. Hey that and you get advocating cold air 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS

 

[Ali1977]

Renewal of the WAA I to Greenland, liking this run. So close to an easterly flow, it’s a cold hp for sure 

[tight isobar]

Knat bite tweaks, @highlighted.. via advection gain.. and it’s into the freezer.. it’s as close for gain as I can remember in a long time!!.. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by tight isobar

[Scandinavian High.]

South east England on the verge going in to freezer.

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Knat bite tweaks, @highlighted.. via advection gain.. and it’s into the freezer.. it’s as close for gain as I can remember in a long time!!.. 

Nowhere near imo. We need big adjustments on tomorrows outputs. 

[NewEra21]

You'd be mad not to be happy with this chart just a few days before Christmas. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

You'd be mad not to be happy with this chart just a few days before Christmas. 

I wouldn't trust the gfs to properly handle what will happen from then onwards in the later stages of the run.

[tight isobar]

On 11/12/2021 at 22:56, blizzard81 said:

Nowhere near imo. We need big adjustments on tomorrows outputs. 

Really?- as we know it’s obviously about height placement/ exactions.. it’s as I said tweaking of “in grand scale “ quite minimalist values.. taking the upper valuations @ 850s note this well.

[northwestsnow]

Last one from me tonight ...

GFS 18Z Christmas Eve 9pm..

brutal ! 

-4

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 11/12/2021 at 23:01, NewEra21 said:

You'd be mad not to be happy with this chart just a few days before Christmas. 

The only people happy with that would be the Greek and Balkan snow lovers.

[feb1991blizzard]

Decent enough 18z though funnily enough.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

I wouldn't trust the gfs to properly handle what will happen from then onwards in the later stages of the run.

I wouldn't trust the pub run to have handled anything properly beforehand either

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Last one from me tonight ...

GFS 18Z Christmas Eve 9pm..

brutal ! 

-4

I’d take that waking up on Xmas day , nice white frost , little wind

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Decent enough 18z though funnily enough.

The high pressure around Iberia is so limiting. Imagine how much different it would be with lower pressure there.

[Battleground Snow]

Mjo 8 vibes deep in FI

[blizzard81]

What we all need is some stonking 00z op runs in the morning. Backed up by decent ensemble suites. Too much to ask for? Seriously though, this is a critical juncture. 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Lots of different scenarios continue with this very substantial high pressure,GFS pub run 

continues with this cold / very cold period all be it 240 hrs plus.My take is the EQBO / La -Nina / MJO 7/ 8 

coming to fruition although battling a strong Polar vortex will take centre stage.Very exiting times coming

up perhaps some record low temperatures broken,the proof will be of course in the pudding.

[Ali1977]

Deep FI looks good - so much to sort out but as mentioned earlier I think tomorrow we need upgrades if we are going to have chance on snow on Xmas day - frost is looking very possible though!! Beyond xmas is obviously still up for grabs