Model output discussion 11/12/21

[Captain Shortwave]

So where are we now looking into week 2 then. The ECM and GEM yesterday were suggesting that we could get close to adverting very cold air towards the U.K. so how about today…

GEM

   
 

!!!!!!!!

Okay….. the GEM setting up a full blooded easterly for the end of week 2. Just in time for Christmas.

GFS

 

The GFS tending again to hold high pressure right over the U.K. with cooler air from the north occasionally pushing south. Most likely bringing weak fronts and clearing to sunny skies. The run up to Christmas would likely be dry and chilly.

Need to watch that week 2 trend. Again some seriously cold air is teased to drop into Europe. Can it reach the U.K?

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks very seasonal this evening !!

On this run xmas eve is a chilly one with temps probably dipping towards zero by sun set in some places...

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Cold Winter Night]

UKMO 168h, closer to GEM than to GFS, I think.

[MJB]

Control shaping up ok 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Control shaping up ok 

Looks like GEM. GFS has a habit of loosing it's grip with the blocking evolution after being the first to go all out, whilst the Euros & GEM then take over in terms of modelling ability (in instances of blocking). I think this is what we are seeing now.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[tight isobar]

So let’s cast aside the generic overall- a season where a mother lobe usually programmer trop polar v- evoles- can actually, aid for wanting soul- spilled frozen , incurring formats to nw- Europe!. I cannot remember in all my years of meteorological views, seeing a classic .. it won’t- yet it will happen!!??.. the pit stomach feeling can’t go away .. if it’s fails.. it fails BIg- if it delivers.. its .... need I say more

[NewEra21]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks like GEM. GFS has a habit of backing away after being the first to go all out, whilst the Euros & GEM then take over in terms of modelling ability (in instances of blocking).

Yep, GFS seems to get a whiff of things first. Then goes a bit all over the place for a few runs, then gradually falls back in line. 

Hopefully I've not jinxed the ECM soon....

Edited December 11, 2021 by NewEra21
Spelling

[tight isobar]

If you view the nor- hem Synoptics from now, to the rounded seaboard Pacific angle.. ignoring the Russian peninsula production, then I think you’ll gain model watching- as a cold fan coming into carlsberg , quantitative measures!- I’m positively buzzing for the Xmas period..

[tight isobar]

On 11/12/2021 at 17:26, NewEra21 said:

Yep, GFS seems to get a whiff of things first. Then goes a bit all over the place for a few runs, then gradually falls back in line. 

Hopefully I've not jinxed the ECM soon....

12z- American, is the chief whiff- and get evo maker.. when you get to a by product of range modelling.

[Lukesluckybunch]

control is looking pretty awesome at 240! 

[minus10]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looks very seasonal this evening !!

On this run xmas eve is a chilly one with temps probably dipping towards zero by sun set in some places...

 

Yes, I'll take that. Hopefully frost/maybe fog to wake upto christmas day. 

Seems once established the block very reluctant to leave our locale if evolving a bit further east on gfs 12z. Plenty of WWA up the atlantic to the west of Ireland.... 

 

[Daniel*]

Canadian model is taking me back to February 2018 this evening. Interesting times ahead, the U.K. block will not be sinking southeastwards that is clear to me with MJO now on move. Weak La Niña which is more east based, strong eQBO, relatively low solar, IOD neutral, a lot to favour a spell of -NAO seems quite likely to me as we enter 2022. Best potential in years…

 

[Battleground Snow]

11 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

control is looking pretty awesome at 240! 

Indeed, seems to be constantly better than the OP and more like the other models for the last few days for whatever reason.

 

[tight isobar]

Lastly before the raw euro @ecm mod- 12z . Yes it has some great upgrade input diagnostics. Yet via its sets is still on paper a shy,the burst amplifier after 96 hrs. For me the main raw joe public model @ /b4 96- but when fruition’s of a- deciphering situation “ such as now” the gfs.. on statistical overview.. trumps!. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM up in 15 minutes, I think the pendulum has swung a bit more towards cold over the last 24 hours.  Good model agreement for building some kind of heights into Greenland in the mid range (day 8-9 or so), it now looks like that definitely happens.  What happens after is uncertain, but at the worst, it would probably cause the UK high to migrate north - to an extent.  

Very good baseline for entering second third of December, with power to add, and little power to subtract as far as I can see.  The worst outcome 10-days from now is more anticyclonic gloom, but the potential is there for something much more enticing too.  

Roll on ECM!

 

[tight isobar]

On 11/12/2021 at 17:47, Daniel* said:

Canadian model is taking me back to February 2018 this evening. Interesting times ahead, the U.K. block will not be sinking southeastwards that is clear to me with MJO now on move. Weak La Niña which is more east based, strong eQBO, relatively low solar, IOD neutral, a lot to favour a spell of -NAO seems quite likely to me as we enter 2022. Best potential in years…

 

Indeed- I’m as always in this hp sarga.. I’m-sticking with folding /pushing height rises north east.!.. never ignore the Canadian either

Edited December 11, 2021 by tight isobar

[chris55]

Trend for the high to be getting colder and colder at the surface as we head into and through xmas week. Atlantic influence being reduced.

If it verified like the GFS 12z then I would reckon on lots of fog and frost for many away from coast. Potentially quite festive, even without any snowfall at this stage  
 

[tight isobar]

B4 the ec and support- the lag ssts- “now showing from the diver equatorial shop- into the upper latitudes @nina consequential. =focing in the tren of vocal 60n wind deciphering!.. and further formats of occulur maritime sea cooling in mass response. The annoms- which are even now- somewhat stale! Are screaming shut/ block formats- the only viable question/questions, are the structure basing of momentum!.. a broad- basic overview.. But.. what a place to be in .. right now

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

B4 the ec and support- the lag ssts- “now showing from the diver equatorial shop- into the upper latitudes @nina consequential. =focing in the tren of vocal 60n wind deciphering!.. and further formats of occulur maritime sea cooling in mass response. The annoms- which are even now- somewhat stale! Are screaming shut/ block formats- the only viable question/questions, are the structure basing of momentum!.. a broad- basic overview.. But.. what a place to be in .. right now

Not even Google translate is giving me anything on this one!

Edited December 11, 2021 by Radiating Dendrite

[tight isobar]

On 11/12/2021 at 18:15, Radiating Dendrite said:

Not even Google translate is giving me anything on this one!

Apologies - I commit/write from my own thoughts - I’ll take time to dissect this later -Edit; it’s even trickier with one eye in Wolverhampton @races-beer in hand, and meteocial-running

Edited December 11, 2021 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

32 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lastly before the raw euro @ecm mod- 12z . Yes it has some great upgrade input diagnostics. Yet via its sets is still on paper a shy,the burst amplifier after 96 hrs. For me the main raw joe public model @ /b4 96- but when fruition’s of a- deciphering situation “ such as now” the gfs.. on statistical overview.. trumps!. 

I've read this post back 50 times now mate and I'm more confused than ever..I thought you was talking about DJ equipment with the burst amps for a while 

To sum up to those of us on planet earth...it trends colder towards Xmas...could be some Frost and dense fog...If this were to stick during the day's,it would be very cold...beyond that things could get interesting...GEM seems keen on putting an NE/Estly our way...long way off.

Love your style tight...keep it up.

Edited December 11, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144 vs GFS, early I know for the frames that matter, they are to come, but still:

ECM looks more amplified upstream and less angry in the PV region.  Early indicators could be a good one this.

[tight isobar]

Anyway - this being the product- of my mentions. To much emphasis drawing on the Eurasia/ maritime plots- . This the blinkered , format- and is where the forming-forcing is the key holder..at east/west seaboard us- and the Pacific absorbing of oceanic evolution.. @trade winds, = non signal taking- 

Edited December 11, 2021 by tight isobar

[SqueakheartLW]

GFS 12z has a few decent members with cold solutions on them for Christmas Day. The top 5 coldest in terms of 850hpa temps are below

1st 850hpa temp -11.5C

2nd 850hpa temp -9.4C

3rd 850hpa temp -7.9C

4th 850hpa temp -7.5C

5th 850hpa temp -7.0C

Rather annoyingly there are many milder options in terms of 850hpa temps in there too and the top 5 mildest Christmas Day solutions are below

1st 850hpa temp +9.4C

2nd 850hpa temp +6.8C

3rd 850hpa temp +6.0C

4th 850hpa temp +5.0C

5th 850hpa temp +4.8C

Now we don't want any of these 5 to happen do we?

The average of all the ensembles from the 12z Christmas Day chart looks like this

This average certainly suggests high pressure for Christmas centred very much around or over the UK. Now depending on parameters at the time this could be:

1. Mild and gloomy with low cloud and murk
2. Colder and foggy under the centre of the high
3. Clear and sunny days with night frosts under an inversion

I know which one of those 3 I would go for to get the sunshine and the cold Christmas I am hoping for

Edited December 11, 2021 by SqueakheartLW

[tight isobar]

On 11/12/2021 at 18:32, tight isobar said:

Anyway - this being the product- of my mentions. To much emphasis drawing on the Eurasia/ maritime plots- . This the blinkered , format- and is where the forming-forcing is the key holder..at east/west seaboard us- and the Pacific absorbing of oceanic evolution.. @trade winds, = non signal taking- the dictator by a mile- going into winter proper.