Model output discussion 11/12/21

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168 vs GFS:

I think the extra amplification might boost things in the next frame, but for it to go properly into Greenland there are some kinks in the isobars that need to be resolved.  

[tight isobar]

On 11/12/2021 at 18:37, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168 vs GFS:

I think the extra amplification might boost things in the next frame, but for it to go properly into Greenland there are some kinks in the isobars that need to be resolved.  

THe raw ec- has nil jet progs- however the vents/and annoms are as good for match of evolution!- and let’s call a sting jet on the Pacific rotation ay .. angular momentum is now certainly gaining— @rises into the pole are inevitable..

Edited December 11, 2021 by tight isobar

[Daniel*]

All this talk of strong vortex I’m not seeing it in tropospheric patterns, unless we’ve been transported to East Asia!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192 v GFS:

Maybe looks a bit messier on the screen, but what’s west of it suggests it might end up better in the end,  2 frames to go…

Edited December 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[tight isobar]

On 11/12/2021 at 18:44, Daniel* said:

All this talk of strong vortex I’m not seeing it in tropospheric patterns, unless we’ve been transported to East Asia!

- and this is why we may see - raw modelling of a sinking HPcell- but on this rare- occasion, it is surely miss modelling.. as again momentum- allows plenty of  scope for rises against model time frames in view

Edited December 11, 2021 by tight isobar

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192 v GFS:

Maybe looks a bit messier on the screen, but what’s west of it suggests it might end up better in the end,  2 frames to go…

ECM is definitely a delay, decent blocking around so would still get there in the end.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM is definitely a delay, decent blocking around so would still get there in the end.

looks a little dodgy here at 192,hope the high doesnt sink

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216 vs GFS:

Sitting this one out while holding out for the T240….but I’ve seen better.  

Edited December 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

All this talk of strong vortex I’m not seeing it in tropospheric patterns, unless we’ve been transported to East Asia!

My great grandfather was from East Asia id love to go and search the family history I know nothing of where he lived. The pv seems to do wonders over that side of our hemisphere in terms of snowy synoptics

Edited December 11, 2021 by Kentspur

[Staffmoorlands]

If the ECM is correct we are looking at 10 days of nothing but cloud and gunk. Double figure temperatures too before cooling off slightly. 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

looks a little dodgy here at 192,hope the high doesnt sink

No it isn't great at all but don't let this dampen your hopes.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[mulzy]

No point sugar coating things, the ECM Det is poor.  Let’s see where it fits within its ensemble suite.

[That ECM]

On 11/12/2021 at 18:55, mulzy said:

No point sugar coating things, the ECM Det is poor.  Let’s see where it fits within its ensemble suite.

Agreed.

[Kasim Awan]

The ECM was predicting this for the 18th of January 2013, on the 8th of January 10 days earlier:

This what verified:

This is what the gfs was predicting:

Nuff said.

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Daniel*]

On 11/12/2021 at 18:51, Staffmoorlands said:

If the ECM is correct we are looking at 10 days of nothing but cloud and gunk. Double figure temperatures too before cooling off slightly. 

What are you expecting within next 10 days winter wonderland? Don’t be ridiculous, it will be a high pressure dominated period we already know that. It’s Xmas to new year the real period of interest.

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM prolongs a flow that is mild high up but fairly dry at lower levels (south to southeasterly). So probably some sunshine and patchy night time frosts. It won’t be mild and cloudy as you would expect from a moist TM southwesterly.
I’m not sure what to think, the pattern has become so sedate on this run that we can drive the ridge northwards in such an aggressive manner.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

Well just about everything that could go wrong went wrong on that ec det.

Hopefully something better tomorrow...

[Ali1977]

Day 10 from the GEM, GFS, ECM, and GFS Control - at 10 days ahead they are all pretty similar really, just with different outcomes !!

ECM defo the worst looking for coldies though - outlier hopefully!! 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ali1977

[Spah1]

Is this the most boring ECM ever? Boring, non descript weather. Hoping the MJO comes into play soon or I might have to put my phone down and talk to the Mrs. 
 

 

[Nick F]

Yeah, not very exciting the EC, anticyclonic tedium, but the Atlantic is stalled and look at that cold pool day 10 over western Russia!

Another attempt at ridging NW with further wave breaking around Xmas may help get the deep cold pool move further west late December, with help of MJO lag from phase 8.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Nick F

[feb1991blizzard]

Spoiler energy south of Greenland alert!

 

[Staffmoorlands]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What are you expecting within next 10 days winter wonderland? Don’t be ridiculous, it will be a high pressure dominated period we already know that. It’s Xmas to new year the real period of interest.

I’m just summarising the model output for the next 10 days. I leave the longer range stuff for the pro’s and I understand the Met Office are not seeing any wintry weather either

[sebastiaan1973]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Is this the most boring ECM ever? Boring, non descript weather. Hoping the MJO comes into play soon or I might have to put my phone down and talk to the Mrs. 
 

 

Well, we have just arrived in phase 7, so for effect -if any- it takes 7-10 days.

[Kasim Awan]

The overall picture on the ECM with high pressure moving north east towards Scandi is a big step forwards to the GEM & GFS 12z control run today. The orientation of the high has moved towards this outcome, so I think the ECM may just be playing catchup and I fully expect it to resolve in the next 36 hours or so, by which time it will have joined the gfs control & gem in a clean push of heights towards Svalbard & cold into central Europe.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

The overall picture on the ECM with high pressure moving north east towards Scandi is a big step forwards to the GEM & GFS 12z control run today. The orientation of the high has moved towards this outcome, so I think the ECM may just be playing catchup and I fully expect it to resolve in the next 36 hours or so, by which time it will have joined the gfs control & gem in a clean push of heights towards Svalbard & cold into central Europe.

I might look like an idiot tomorrow saying this but I reckon that tomorrow’s ECM 00z or maybe the 12z will be a lot better for coldies . Maybe even stonking