Model output discussion 11/12/21

[phil nw.]

A new thread to continue model output discussion.

A change to a high pressure pattern is expected to develop through the coming few days as pressure rises from further south .We can see this well established around our shores by the end of next week.

Cold air by then is coming south over Eastern Europe and parts of Scandinavia with the Atlantic blocked off.Any drift off the continent will cool things off at the surface for the Uk  but detail like this is best left until nearer the time.

Latest 2m temp. ens graph does show a steady cooling trend though.

As ever the position and orientation of the block will make the difference to ground conditions,let's hope a drift further north appears where we can tap into colder upper air in time.

Ok on we go then please keep just to model output discussion in this thread and use the other threads for anything else.

Thanks all.

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by phil nw.
replaced chart

[northwestsnow]

ICON looking better than the 00z run...

12z

00z

[MATTWOLVES 3]

In the words of the late great Marvin Gaye I've heard it on the grapevine.....potential disruption to the strat further down the line...one to watch,but the possibility is there.

I'm not overly convinced of a return to mild and wet into January....long way off and always sounds like the models are unsure...theres conflicting signals...let's revert back to climatology normal!

Some cracking profiles on some of the 6z ens only viewed half of them,but definitely some good trends.

On a plus side most of me Xmas shopping done thats really taken it out of me ordering everything through Amazon prime..

@Georgina thanks for the kind words in your post.

And folks take care,omicron spreading like wildfire.

Eyes down for the 12s..

 

[johncam]

On 11/12/2021 at 15:43, MATTWOLVES said:

In the words of the late great Marvin Gaye I've heard it on the grapevine.....potential disruption to the strat further down the line...one to watch,but the possibility is there.

I'm not overly convinced of a return to mild and wet into January....long way off and always sounds like the models are unsure...theres conflicting signals...let's revert back to climatology normal!

Some cracking profiles on some of the 6z ens only viewed half of them,but definitely some good trends.

On a plus side most of me Xmas shopping done thats really taken it out of me ordering everything through Amazon prime..

@Georgina thanks for the kind words in your post.

And folks take care,omicron spreading like wildfire.

Eyes down for the 12s..

 

Fingers crossed mate, as a lot of posters have said in the  past if it can go wrong it usually does for us 

[Singularity]

Feels very classic at the moment with overly progressive GFS runs set against markedly less so ECM & GEM runs. One anomaly is GEFS tending to be less progressive than GFS - something we’ve seen more often since they were upgraded last year.

The more I see, the more I feel that we’ll be unlucky/lucky (delete according to perspective) not to see a central or east-based negative NAO episode sometime between the big day & the opening week of 2022. A non event would require the MJO projections to be wrong... this is admittedly a distinct possibility given that phase 8 is at the limits of what even an east-based La Niña tends to permit. Then again, many past EP La Niña winters have seen it happen, just about, so...

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO 144,

pretty similar to the ECM and gem from this morning.

Strong block over uk and not too much vortex energy around Greenland

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO 144,

pretty similar to the ECM and gem from this morning.

Strong block over uk and not too much vortex energy around Greenland

does it look better then this mornings?

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

does it look better then this mornings?

Yes, obviously allowing for the 12 hour time difference, but stronger block and further north

This morning attached

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO 144,

pretty similar to the ECM and gem from this morning.

Strong block over uk and not too much vortex energy around Greenland

More similar to GEM than ECM I would say.

Lower heights in Eastern Europe, High more pronounced and farther to the NW than ECM.
Not a bad start to the 12z's.

It's good to have the UKMO now alongside the other models , now that 144h/168h reaches the early stages of the height developments in our part of the world.

[Mike Poole]

Good UKMO.

GFS T168 looks a good springboard, just need to keep that southern low in the Atlantic attached to the main vortex low, iron out a couple of kinks, and it’s party time in Greenland:

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

WAA 1 gets us a ridge into Greenland, where will WAA 2 get us, GFS T210:

 

And what of the evolving pattern in the vicinity of the UK?

Edited December 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[TSNWK]

More “lift” towards north on this run to my eyes.. which is good as it’s nipped in the bud the scandi flop, slide and sink shown on 06z

Edited December 11, 2021 by TSNWK

[That ECM]

So close.

[Cold Winter Night]

GFS 240h:

High extended towards Iceland:

Trough diving into Eastern Europe:

WAA towards Greenland is messy though. If that was better and if it had lower heights in SE Europe to begin with (UKMO!) it could have been a great outcome early on.

 

[January Snowstorm]

Important to always remember that FI is just that and nothing is predictable beyond 8/9 days.

For me if we are to get a route to cold I feel a Scandi High is far more likely than a Greenland one at least initially. Nice to see a very cold pool of air out East in about 9 days time.

Wednesday at the earliest before a Christmas trend is established!!

In the meantime, my worst type of weather as in anticylonic gloom!!

[Ali1977]

GEM looks much better at T182

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM looks much better at T182

 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM looks much better at T182

Day 10 set up very well

[Kasim Awan]

GEM certainly lights the easterly ❄ fire

(I see that about 5 people posted this at the exact time I did )

Edited December 11, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[BLIZZARDMAN]

On 11/12/2021 at 16:50, Ali1977 said:

GEM looks much better at T182

Now that is a beast from the east.

[Tim Bland]

Would deliver for Christmas…

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM looks much better at T182

GEM is a gem!

This is the development I am personally hoping for.

At 144h it was already the best of the bunch (minus ECM that we are still awaiting)

Lower heights in SE Europe, decent WAA.

[fromey]

With the models of the last few days I would say it’s work in progress! It’s looking good but let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we do have things going our way but this is the uk, anything can happen.

[Tim Bland]

GFS throwing out an Azores Hurricane for Christmas

[Cold Winter Night]

GFS tries again, some 5 days later than GEM.

Nevermind the details, that it keeps pushing heights North is a good sign IMO.