Model output discussion 11/12/21

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

The overall picture on the ECM with high pressure moving north east towards Scandi is a big step forwards to the GEM & GFS 12z control run today. The orientation of the high has moved towards this outcome, so I think the ECM may just be playing catchup and I fully expect it to resolve in the next 36 hours or so, by which time it will have joined the gfs control & gem in a clean push of heights towards Svalbard & cold into central Europe.

Come on Kasim. You really think the GEM and GFS control have the nod on the ECM. Where is Mr Murr to remind everyone the GFS is poor. I want cold as much as everyone but I think we need to wait 5 days to see where the high pressure is going. 

[markw2680]

18 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The ECM was predicting this for the 18th of January 2013, on the 8th of January 10 days earlier:

This what verified:

This is what the gfs was predicting:

Nuff said.

 

Yes I get what your saying but that doesn’t mean any are right or wrong atm, all models are struggling with this high where it will end up etc and will not have this nailed until middle of next week if you ask me. I personally expect it to hang around for a while and then slowly sink se, that’s what would normally happen hope I’m wrong though. Time will tell

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Come on Kasim. You really think the GEM and GFS control have the nod on the ECM. Where is Mr Murr to remind everyone the GFS is poor. I want cold as much as everyone but I think we need to wait 5 days to see where the high pressure is going. 

I’ve never understood the faith put in the GEFS control run in here!  It is a low res diagnostic tool for the ensemble suite, it isn’t another op run!

Edited December 11, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Come on Kasim. You really think the GEM and GFS control have the nod on the ECM. Where is Mr Murr to remind everyone the GFS is poor. I want cold as much as everyone but I think we need to wait 5 days to see where the high pressure is going. 

It's just an interpretation - not a definite.

[Methuselah]

One thing I've learned, during my nearly eighteen years on NW, is that the 'best' model is very often the one with the most snow in its latest run? There's only really one 'option'; the one the weather takes.

[Radiating Dendrite]

This may be wrong, but surely the lack of low heights in the med is a big issue. Nothing to stop the high sinking if it meets any resistance near Greenland or Scandi. 

[johncam]

On 11/12/2021 at 19:26, Radiating Dendrite said:

This may be wrong, but surely the lack of low heights in the med is a big issue. Nothing to stop the high sinking if it meets any resistance near Greenland or Scandi. 

Yep a lot of posters have said the same 

 

 

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

This may be wrong, but surely the lack of low heights in the med is a big issue. Nothing to stop the high sinking if it meets any resistance near Greenland or Scandi. 

Yep, certainly makes everything more difficult. I've always been told you need to look for those low heights in Europe, especially Italy to prop the high up. 

Once this high can't push northwards, I can just see it sinking back into Europe. Hopefully I'm proved wrong though.

[nick sussex]

Flat upstream and different over the east Pacific sums up tonight’s ECM op.

After the models seemed to be moving in the right direction for coldies tonight’s outputs bar the GEM have been very underwhelming .

 

 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Very interesting stuff here...

[Ali1977]

EC Op vs mean at day 10. Similar our side of the pole but very different above Alaska. PV much more organised on the Op, making me think some ENS do have heights pushing further up Into the pole!! Notice the strong PV near Alaska on the Op Is sat over the Far East of Russia on the EC ENS!! 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240 (I’ve ignored the earlier ones as we kind of know where we are with those!):

I don’t want to be too parochial about this but isn’t this just 15 plots of a UK high?

Yep, I get it, they are slow moving.  T264+

What 6 clusters!  Seriously!  if you think I’m going to try and pick the bones out of that ECM, go do one.  Atlantic nowhere in any of them, even the blue bordered ones.  But we want cluster 3, 9 members, massive Greenland block…

[tight isobar]

On 11/12/2021 at 19:18, Mike Poole said:

I’ve never understood the faith put in the GEFS control run in here!  It is a low res diagnostic tool for the ensemble suite, it isn’t another op run!

Personally I avoid the control- Always have, reasons of personal choice in my part- And I get exactly what ya saying @gfs control.

[feb1991blizzard]

eps 240 mean no worse than midnight run.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240 (I’ve ignored the earlier ones as we kind of know where we are with those!):

I don’t want to be too parochial about this but isn’t this just 15 plots of a UK high?

Yep, I get it, they are slow moving.  T264+

What 6 clusters!  Seriously!  if you think I’m going to try and pick the bones out of that ECM, go do one.  Atlantic nowhere in any of them, even the blue bordered ones.  But we want cluster 3, 9 members, massive Greenland block…

WOW, cluster 3 is epic  although cluster 2 bulldozes the block!!

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240 (I’ve ignored the earlier ones as we kind of know where we are with those!):

I don’t want to be too parochial about this but isn’t this just 15 plots of a UK high?

Yep, I get it, they are slow moving.  T264+

What 6 clusters!  Seriously!  if you think I’m going to try and pick the bones out of that ECM, go do one.  Atlantic nowhere in any of them, even the blue bordered ones.  But we want cluster 3, 9 members, massive Greenland block…

cluster 4 excellent to bring down the strat vortex.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240 (I’ve ignored the earlier ones as we kind of know where we are with those!):

I don’t want to be too parochial about this but isn’t this just 15 plots of a UK high?

Yep, I get it, they are slow moving.  T264+

What 6 clusters!  Seriously!  if you think I’m going to try and pick the bones out of that ECM, go do one.  Atlantic nowhere in any of them, even the blue bordered ones.  But we want cluster 3, 9 members, massive Greenland block…

Yep Mike that cluster 3 is stonking . But there all very blocked so decent in that respect. Think we just need to be patient. I know that’s hard I’m terrible at waiting but I honestly think we can get a decent spell of weather out of this (cold and snow ) .

[ICE COLD]

Where is Nick aka @bluearmy ? Come on mate need your input

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

eps 240 mean no worse than midnight run.

 

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Where is Nick aka @bluearmy ? Come on mate need your input

Im sure he will say there are different options but a super slow sinker is favourite.

Lots of energy in that Northern arm - we look for some mjo love,  lag of 10 days , if there  is going to be some effect we might begin to see it late in tomorrow's days 10 charts...

[Uncertainty]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

eps 240 mean no worse than midnight run.

Not sure what to make of the clusters late on, I’ve been through all the members and there’s at least 15 which are zonal or stormy and 15 very very blocked and the rest are non descript! Not much of guide for the direction of travel!

@Mike Poole Atlantic very strong on a good few of them. It’s not off the table just yet sadly, but still a minority option (as is the big GH!)

Edited December 11, 2021 by Uncertainy

[Daniel*]

ECM op was colder in mid range compared to 00z but less cold in FI still gets cold though, 2 days of double digits in London: Sunday and Monday not much, struggling to see how this month will end up milder than average at least down here.

 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Uncertainy said:

Not sure what to make of the clusters late on BA, I’ve been through all the members and there’s at least 15 which are zonal or stormy and 15 very very blocked and the rest are non descript! Not much of guide for the direction of travel!

Well I would say, bring in past experience of the last year to bear, which for me, unless I get evidence anything substantial has changed, has been consistently meridional,  most of the zonal ones are for the bin!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Why is it so many heads drop each and everytime there's a bad op run! 

Whenever you feel this way fill a pint glass half way....and keep telling yourselves it's half full,not half empty....works for me everytime and you end up getting pretty drunk  

Personally I think we could be seeing some better runs from the ECM over the next couple of days..

There are hints on these long range ens of a gathering of colder options...and some of them much colder...

Have a little faith..

Edited December 11, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Kasim Awan]

A few times before, ridging into Greenland has failed, though subsequent efforts into Scandi as the high is forced east have done well. This would be somewhat of a natural progression given the low diving south into west Russiam Some of the output today hints at this Scandi development ("backup" route). Again, negatives include the lack of troughing over Iberia and too much of it over SW Greenland area. It's just a waiting game next 48 hours to see how the high movement is resolved, plenty of options on the table but personal view is that we "could" see more of the scandi (gem) option being played around with.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[DOdo]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well, we have just arrived in phase 7, so for effect -if any- it takes 7-10 days.

My bet is on an Easterly come Christmas