Model output discussion 11/12/21

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

We're having to use multiple websites this morning haha.

ECM 240 v last night

240h is pretty much a full resolvement of the scandi development in line with yesterday's other 12z output. Ecm playing catch up it's a much bigger model so can take a while to latch on if you get me.

[northwestsnow]

Really good EC this morning ,big upgrade on last nights run- we look to an improvement in the eps ..

Worth mentioning EC get progressively colder through the run - that's a trend i like to see

 

Edited December 12, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really good EC this morning ,big upgrade on last nights run- we look to an improvement in the eps ..

Worth mentioning EC get progressively colder through the run - that's a trend i like to see

 

yes its pretty decent,you can see by 240,those very cold uppers are not a million miles away!

[SLEETY]

Fantastic ECM,only going one way at the end.COLD

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Fantastic ECM,only going one way at the end.COLD

if there was another frame after 240,i would imagine it would show slight pressure rising to the northeast,that would be my guess

[ICE COLD]

There we go ECM much much improved this morning . 

MOGREPS temperatures on the slide running up to Christmas

[mulzy]

Ext mean EPS broadly similar to last few runs.  Hints of some retrogression towards Greenland in the outer reaches.  Overall looks like a decent suite.  If only the core of higher heights were 700 miles further north, it wold be perfect.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Fantastic ECM,only going one way at the end.COLD

Room for more upgrades ...

[TSNWK]

On 12/12/2021 at 07:44, mulzy said:

Ext mean EPS broadly similar to last few runs.  Hints of some retrogression towards Greenland in the outer reaches.  Overall looks like a decent suite.  If only the core of higher heights were 700 miles further north, it wold be perfect.

Thanks. Is a 700 mile shunt north within the envelope of realistic adjustment at said range?

[ICE COLD]

Some colder runs now starting to appear in the EC ens at the end just in time for Santa

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks. Is a 700 mile shunt north within the envelope of realistic adjustment at said range?

At that range, of course it is.  There is always a chance that things will correct further south though.  Too early to tell as we need to look at the whole range of medium forecasting tools to come up with a reasonable indication of what may happen in 12-15 days time.  MJO projection looks favourable as of last night - my worry is the the Strat and how that interfaces with the troposphere.   Even then, who knows?

[SLEETY]

The lack of cold air to the N and E doesnt seem to be a problem this winter looking at the Helsinki and Moscow Ensembles.So if this does comes off going to be bitterly cold!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Some colder runs now starting to appear in the EC ens at the end 

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

At that range, of course it is.  There is always a chance that things will correct further south though.  Too early to tell as we need to look at the whole range of medium forecasting tools to come up with a reasonable indication of what may happen in 12-15 days time.  MJO projection looks favourable as of last night - my worry is the the Strat and how that interfaces with the troposphere.   Even then, who knows?

 

GFS is now advertising a warming

[Malarky]

Jet stream smashed to smithereens in the next 5-10 days. What kind of accuracy can we hope for from the jet forecast?

Jetstream Forecast - Jetstream Map Updated Four Times Daily - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Check the latest Jet Stream map and forecast

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS is now advertising a warming

never really understood these charts,because you would think the blue would indicate cold,but its reversed? 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

never really understood these charts,because you would think the blue would indicate cold,but its reversed? 

It's at 10 hpa in the strat ..

Blue is cold .

[sebastiaan1973]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

never really understood these charts,because you would think the blue would indicate cold,but its reversed? 

It's temperature.

[IDO]

I think there has been a good consistency cross and inter model as to where the mid-lat high will be with some WAA stretching north of that. They are the Pacific and UK high. The GFS op, D8-16:

The problem with this pattern is that it appears to be looped with no obvious route to progress to Scandi or Greenland. All the snow is therefore as far away as we could ever get in this scenario. Even on D10 on the ECM it looks like it will follow the GFS:

Out to D16 it looks like a trop driven synoptic, troughing around the NH due to the lack of strength of the tPV. It is def our second shot at some mid-lat snowy conditions somewhere in Europe but low probability for IMBY over the next 16 days:

T850s and snow chances>

Though the high in situ means temps suppressed and feeling seasonal under the high:

We need the pattern to shift west for anything snowy in the medium term before this pattern sinks.

[northwestsnow]

From what I can see 00z EC control looks decent with HP to the North West...

Should add that's for  the 27th - Christmas looks cold BTW.. 

 

Edited December 12, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM mean ens

day 5

 

Day 10

 

High pressure slap bang over the U.K. from the end of this coming week onwards essentially. There is  perhaps a little wiggle room for the ridge to back west a bit, which should introduce cooler air from the north. Surface temperatures should fall away as time goes on with frost and fog becoming widespread.

Edited December 12, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Snowman.]

Interesting to wake up to a good set of 0z runs, they usually always spur the mood at the start of the day. 
 

Great to see the ECM looking much better than the tosh it threw out last night, GFS still being a little too progressive for my liking however at such range either one of them could be correct. 
 

Good start to the day. 

[Staffmoorlands]

Better looking charts this morning but still along way from any wintry weather. Mostly dry and cloudy.

I still prefer a more active pattern like we had at the end of November which delivered lots of snow across the UK.

Edited December 12, 2021 by Staffmoorlands

[Lukesluckybunch]

11 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Better looking charts this morning but still along way from any wintry weather. Mostly dry and cloudy.

I still prefer a more active pattern like we had at the end of November which delivered lots of snow across the UK.

would you say it will be cold also as well as dry?

[Staffmoorlands]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

would you say it will be cold also as well as dry?

The Met office are showing temperatures dropping off significantly from this Friday. It still looks frost free for many areas based on the data I have seen ( cloud cover is the issue here)

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,some firming up on northern blocking ECM/UKMO/GEM all looking good pressure rise

more over U.K. rather than to the east helping retrogression.Good to see Atlantic low over the Azores 

all helps the overall pattern,some exciting charts I feel will be showing in the next coming day’s.