Model output discussion 11/12/21

[Staffmoorlands]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I doubt it mate. This is likely the way forward now. 

Way too early to be this confident. 

[Nick F]

Quite the turn around by GFS 6 hours later, most of UK under sub -10C T850s by Boxing Day in a bitter easterly or northeasterly.

Lets hope 12z EC keeps the momentum going. We are a good few days off from being out of danger, i.e. the block over Greenland goes too far west allowing cold air / low heights to spill west from Scandinavia to our north meaning low pressure to our west and southwest with a west based -NAO. Or the blocking high collapses, which is less likely.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Nick F

[Methuselah]

Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! It took a while but now it's finally in!

    

[phil nw.]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

IThere was an event I think January 2013 whereby south east England received a good covering with uppers around -3  as a south east draw was bringing in sub zero dew points and tm2

Marginal conditions are always tricky for snow.I recall the midlands getting snowfall a few years ago with -2/-3c uppers.I guess evaporate cooling is also a factor in some conditions.Of course coastal conditions are at risk to warming of the lower layers off the sea.So many factors but in the right conditions quite modest uppers can deliver given other factors are favourable.

Edited December 16, 2021 by phil nw.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Ah so Boris storm trooper it is then ?      

[Johnp]

The problem is - this run is virtually perfect, so there’s no chance of maintaining or beating this run in the days ahead!

Prepare for some wobbles along the way, it’ll,probably be midweek before we can start being confident. 

[E17boy]

Please ECM make my dream come true in 8 days time I promise I will always be good.

[ICE COLD]

Oh my goodness I can’t contain myself . Been busy last hour so just caught up and wow . Boom boom shake the room

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

12 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The more I look the more I dislike the UKMO. That nose of high pressure coming out of Belgium and France worries me greatly. 

Don’t dislike.  You need to look at the ‘progress’…..because at t120 the isobar is 1025, at t144 it’s 1015….it isn’t nosing out, it’s dropping in pressure

 

BFTP

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

With all due respect my friend this is technically incorrect. The most important factor is the 850hPa to surface sounding profile. Uppers can be 0C but if this profile remains at or below 0C precipitation will fall as snow. This especially possible on the coast when an offshore wind is present, which prevents a surface warm layer eating away at the conducive sounding.

As has happened before across low lying areas of the South West

[Mapantz]

On 16/12/2021 at 16:41, Kasim Awan said:

With all due respect my friend this is technically incorrect. The most important factor is the 850hPa to surface sounding profile. Uppers can be 0C but if this profile remains at or below 0C precipitation will fall as snow. This especially possible on the coast when an offshore wind is present, which prevents a surface warm layer eating away at the conducive sounding.

In that set up on Wednesday, snow will not fall down here. It may do over higher ground, but not close to or at sea level.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is for NWS

 

-10 over you, any bump up from SW….buried

 

BFTP

[Paul]

Ok, apologies for the slightly inopportune timing here, but needs must, so locking this and starting a fresh thread:

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Paul