Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[tight isobar]

On 17/12/2021 at 23:33, damianslaw said:

Every model run comes with a big disclaimer ' subject to change' and the change more so each 24 hr further into the future. 

Indeed - but if people payed more attention, to the unusual Synoptics- other than Atlantic based shunting-/ @ upper vertues  then we could have some moderate/ analysis. Because due to @whatever” your view is @ gwa/ / climate change. The normality of west- to east meteorological stamp! Has /is very different. Anyway I prey- for a little grace of formula for both height block, and minuscule morphing- because that is the ultimate slay.. or weigh... rest well

Edited December 17, 2021 by tight isobar

[Snowman.]

28 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Got a good feeling about tomorrow's output. Night all.

You little tease Kas, you’re going to need to convince @sheikhyor it’s all for nothing 

[Allseasons-Si]

Starting from tomorrows 00z runs up to Xmas day(that's 7 days):-

we have

28 gfs runs

14 ECM runs

and 14 GEM runs

that is quite a lot of runs to resolve as regards to what happens on the big day it's self.

 

 

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Starting from tomorrows 00z runs up to Xmas day(that's 7 days):-

we have

28 gfs runs

14 ECM runs

and 14 GEM runs

that is quite a lot of runs to resolve as regards to what happens on the big day it's self.

 

 

Doubt much will change when we get to 72-96hr range - so we have about half amount of those runs for the picture to change significantly.

[Windysun1]

4 minutes ago, Mandy Orme said:

I don't understand the charts or the runs but follow this thread daily to try and learn. 

This has been like reading a a gripping thriller that you can't put down. One minute it looks like I'm going to get my wish for a cold maybe snow Christmas, the next it's rain and slightly milder. 

Who knew weather could have more twist and turns than a crime novel lol. 

Fingers crossed for cold weather 

Yep this crazy site can be like that.

The weather has its mind made up along time ago what its going to do. It is the models trying to deciher what the weather is going today which has the twists and turns.

I can see sometime in the future when these super computers have found the key to unravelling these complexities it could be quiet a bit more straight forward. 

I could also see myself well dead by then too!

[SPEEDYTOAST]

Here's one of the perturbations which would cause quite an amazing divide in 850 temps + precip type over England (perturbation 20)

Southampton in Rain whilst Sheffield gets a dumping of snow 

[Allseasons-Si]

On 17/12/2021 at 23:45, Stu_London said:

Doubt much will change when we get to 72-96hr range - so we have about half amount of those runs for the picture to change significantly.

There will still be a significance at that range in terms of snowfall in the UK on the big day believe me,...if there will be one

even 24hrs out is still unpredictable where snow will fall

if the models underestimate the block(which mostly they do)then systems will head further SE and totally miss the UK,...there has been quite a few examples i can remember.

[SPEEDYTOAST]

By any chance can anyone send me the times of when charts come out? Would really appreciate it 

 

[Kentspur]

13 minutes ago, SPEEDYTOAST said:

Here's one of the perturbations which would cause quite an amazing divide in 850 temps + precip type over England (perturbation 20)

Southampton in Rain whilst Sheffield gets a dumping of snow 

Crazy the difference in air mass. As long as my bet on a white xmas in Leeds comes off its a small consolation  for a usual standard mild xmas here in NW Kent so I'd take this as a secondary prize

Edited December 18, 2021 by Kentspur

[Mark wheeler]

20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Starting from tomorrows 00z runs up to Xmas day(that's 7 days):-

we have

28 gfs runs

14 ECM runs

and 14 GEM runs

that is quite a lot of runs to resolve as regards to what happens on the big day it's self.

 

 

And 14 Navgems

[Met4Cast]

The 120hr FAX chart is pretty good. Looks like it's sliding underneath the block albeit rounder than you'd like

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

The 120hr FAX chart is pretty good. Looks like it's sliding underneath the block albeit rounder than you'd like

Not bad at all going forward

[TallPaul]

21 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Crazy the difference in air mass. As long as my bet on a white xmas in Leeds comes off its a small consolation  for a usual standard mild xmas here in NW Kent so I'd take this as a secondary prize

...and here in Plymouth, I'll gratefully take a hail shower.......Good luck all, lots to chop and change yet though!!

[tight isobar]

On 17/12/2021 at 23:44, Wold Topper said:

Do you always talk in rhymes n riddles? 

#Riddler?

Yeah occasionally, when talking to wanna be.. what’s the basis layerings for the two snaps I’ve shot??@ very basic @ raw modelling?? If no definitive answer.. then don’t come onto a model- out forum for trolling?? There’s plenty places on the web for odd , keyboard warriors that get off on hiding behind one!!!!

Edited December 18, 2021 by tight isobar

[SLEETY]

Could  be South that ends up with the snow, seen these lows modeled too far North many times before, sometimes they miss the UK  completely and if that happens, we will go in the freezer  don't rule out anything yet!! 

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Could  be South that ends up with the snow, seen these lows modeled too far North many times before, sometimes they miss the UK  completely and if that happens, we will go in the freezer  don't rule out anything yet!! 

That's generally a slider scenario running into cold air SLEETY not a low moving westwards and not disrupting.

[TallPaul]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

That's generally a slider scenario running into cold air SLEETY not a low moving westwards and not disrupting.

Hey swfc! That's the current fascination (more so for me!)...as in: Will the low move in a line W to E (barrow through), or, NW to SE...(slider)??? Heck this is no done deal...and come Xmas day...anyone for 'blindfold pin the donkey'?...

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

Hey swfc! That's the current fascination (more so for me!)...as in: Will the low move in a line W to E (barrow through), or, NW to SE...(slider)??? Heck this is no done deal...and come Xmas day...anyone for 'blindfold pin the donkey'?...

Hi. The low will move nw to se but has it gets south it interacts with a low moving down from Scandinavia. This drags it west and we need to stay on the northern edge to pull in cold wintry weather

[Mapantz]

If you take issue with a post, ignore it. If you think it is breaking the guidelines, report it. Please don't respond to the posts, it creates a chain reaction in off-topic replies, let a mod deal with it.

We're entering a period of weather that could be rather exciting, and with Christmas around the corner, members ought to be more respectful to each other to keep this a fun thread for those who post, and for those who sit at the back and read. 

[Snowman.]

As I’m out with the lads, I’m on the night shift. Another GEM will do me nicely.

Corrections SE will do us nicely.  

Edited December 18, 2021 by Snowman.

[PiscesStar]

Night guys thanks for a great day of model watching and comment x

7 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Maybe not what you wanted, but it's great for me.

Hopefully will stay exactly where it is tomorrow. 

 

[Battleground Snow]

Don't even know what to comment on the Icon, 

UKMO up in 30 mins

Edited December 18, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Don't even now what to comment on the Icon, 

UKMO up in 30 mins

It is better mate, messy but some key aspects have improved like strength of Atlantic blocking & easterly track of the low.

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO 144,

so close to a good chart, will it slide at 168?

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Dave Kightley]

Gfs colder air seems way further south by 24th but I dunno the don’t get the set up so