Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Duane S.]

Very Interesting GFS strat charts this morning, even at 60N (see below) that registers as an official SSW…

Does seem extremely, well, extreme though . Certainly one to watch as the ECM comes into range in about a week.

Dubious extremities aside, it backs up my post last night ref. an expected warming early Jan and how good that would (could) be in terms of timing . As in, I highly doubt the trop could hold the fort on its own without some eventual assistance from the strat going through this winter.

Edited December 19, 2021 by s4lancia

[fromey]

34 minutes ago, Rayth said:

The absolute brakes have been put on the zonal winds 

 

 

Has some just drawn a red line on there?? Is that for real??

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure I get this forecast looking at the recent gfs runs 

do you have a base date and time ???

Yes i thought that - That is a ridiculous SSW, i admit i havent been looking at the height charts in the strat, only the meteociel GFS 10mb temp, but there is nothing on any run ive seen yet that suggests a technical reversal SSW in that fashion has been modelled.

[bluearmy]

the fog is still evident ……… ec and Ukmo very much on the same page at day 6 

the eps clusters are split in the day 5/7 period in equal thirds ….. going to need to wait another day or two for clarity (and even then there will no doubt be a moveable snow line somewhere across nw europe)

[Chesil View]

I see Man with Beard just beat me to it but its true the  Ecm mean at day 7 has the fabled channel low.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Very Interesting GFS strat charts this morning, even at 60N (see below) that registers as an official SSW…

Does seem extremely, well, extreme though . Certainly one to watch as the ECM comes into range in about a week.

Dubious extremities aside, it backs up my post last night ref. an expected warming early Jan and how good that would (could) be in terms of timing . As in, I highly doubt the trop could hold the fort on its own without some eventual assistance from the strat going through this winter.

 

3 minutes ago, fromey said:

Has some just drawn a red line on there?? Is that for real??

 

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes i thought that - That is a ridiculous SSW, i admit i havent been looking at the height charts in the strat, only the meteociel GFS 10mb temp, but there is nothing on any run ive seen yet that suggests a technical reversal SSW in that fashion has been modelled.

Unless someone can put something on here to clarify, we’ll assume that Steve Murr has hacked into Hannah’s site …..

[Rayth]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure I get this forecast looking at the recent gfs runs 

It’s on her site as current but it’s simply incorrect ……

Nothing is date stamped as far as I’m aware , it’s from Hannah Attards site which updates daily at 00:00

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I see Man with Beard just beat me to it but its true the  Ecm mean at day 7 has the fabled channel low.

How cold will the near continent be?  I think a quite specific channel runner will be required to be widespread snowfall 

[ghoneym]

This is the latest 10hpa wind speed on ozone watch.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,yes utter confusion this morning with the charts,perhaps looking at the fax 120 hrs 

you get a better idea showing occluded fronts pushing up into the south from Atlantic low.

I will stick to my guns and say the cold block to the north and east will keep any precipitation 

limited to the extreme south.

[TSNWK]

On the ECM this morning I was thinking over breakfast.. yes it's all consuming at times our winter hobby  

ECM has a little tendency for over  amplification in later Stages, so with a glass half full mindset I'm saying that the west based nao shown from 168 is because of that and for once it will be in our favour as the pattern drops back south and east. 

Have a good day.. I really enjoy this distraction and knowledge being gained here.  

[goosey007]

50 minutes ago, Malarky said:

For anyone just joining us this morning… we’ve had a cracking GEM, a decent UKMO, middling ECM, and a GFS that looks to have found a new version of physics.

After a few runs yesterday where the block seemed to be strengthening in all the right places, that signal appears to have waned somewhat.

Nothing disastrous is showing on any model in the reliable timeframe.

Game on. Knife-edge. This is why we love this.

Great update/overview.......

[Chesil View]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How cold will the near continent be?  I think a quite specific channel runner will be required to be widespread snowfall 

I agree Blue even channel lows have an envelope of possibilities. I remember one that heralded a Red warning for 6-12 inches of snow in Dorset in Jan 2010 but the angle of approach took it slightly further east and we didn't get a flake.

Still having counselling for that one.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[MJB]

First place I look is the ENS if I haven't viewed the charts as they roll out . OP and Control on the high side , still looks good to me and with the Zonal winds falling off the cliff , exciting times.

Anyone got the ECM ENS ? I know our friend Luke said they weren't good then he vanished without the evidence Mlord.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

First place I look is the ENS if I haven't viewed the charts as they roll out . OP and Control on the high side , still looks good to me and with the Zonal winds falling off the cliff , exciting times.

Anyone got the ECM ENS ? I know our friend Luke said they weren't good then he vanished without the evidence Mlord.

The basics for London.00z

[damianslaw]

There is a strong resemblance to the charts of late Dec 2000 at the moment. 

[MJB]

Gem ENS from Retron over at TWO , they aint bad 

[markw2680]

Well after last nights 18z run we all just new it would all take a slight backwards step this morning. Nothing is ever simple in the uk is it? Oh well expect more swings to come. Probably be a few poorer runs today and then just as some will say that’s it it’s nailed the models will start to push south once more. There’s plenty of time yet so just stay calm and carry on

[ghoneym]

Hannah's site time stamps updates for midday and then midnight so are a bit more up to date than the NASA ozone site(updates typically between 14:00 & 1300). Seems wildly different but let's see what they show this afternoon once the NASA site updates.

Edited December 19, 2021 by ghoneym

[goosey007]

42 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Nice...saved me a lot of scrolling! 

Agree totally Mr Malarky can you summarise every morning at 9 for next few days please would save me an hour of pain trying to work it all out by the posts ....had it all this morning GEM narnia to posts about Xmas cold cancelled forever .....however reading between the lines snow is comming come on !!!!!

Edited December 19, 2021 by goosey007

[Beanz]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Well after last nights 18z run we all just new it would all take a slight backwards step this morning. Nothing is ever simple in the uk is it? Oh well expect more swings to come. Probably be a few poorer runs today and then just as some will say that’s it it’s nailed the models will start to push south once more. There’s plenty of time yet so just stay calm and carry on

Well it’s not called the pub run for no reason…at your peril with the 18z 

[Duane S.]

Focusing obsessively at each run’s exact track of the low pressure systems is all a bit pointless (other than from purely a JFF aspect), and must actually be quite exhausting! Yes, trends can be gleaned for sure, but corrections, even quite large ones, can and often do happen inside 24 hours in these type of set ups.

The focus needs to be on the, soon to be, retrogressed block. If we lose the large-scale influence of this over the Christmas period, it becomes more difficult to pull out a memorable UK-wide cold spell. The more force exerted southwards towards the uk the better. Obviously, within reason, but the envelope doesn’t (yet) have an option where it drops back over us (and even that is no disaster). For me, I want to see a ‘nosing down’ ridge and the rest ought to follow.

Not that the weather is ever that straightforward of course!

[SnowBlake]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There is a strong resemblance to the charts of late Dec 2000 at the moment. 

Even the mods churn out one liners without charts to back them up

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How cold will the near continent be?  I think a quite specific channel runner will be required to be widespread snowfall 

Some very cold nights on near continent. Brussels…

 

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Agree totally Mr Malarky can you summarise every morning at 9 for next few days please would save me an hour of pain trying to work it all out by the posts ....had it all this morning GEM narnia to posts about Xmas cold cancelled forever .....however reading between the lines snow is comming come on !!!!!

Um I don't agree with summing up views. A) how do you learn from headlines. B) slightly dismissive of the time many put to analyse and post. Just block the noise and keep the substance.