Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?
IGNORED

Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

Recommended Posts

Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Why? 
 

it’s only more credible because it’s the solution you want to see, we usually meet in the middle in these circumstances.

You are wrong.

A more credible model is consistent.

Gfs has more cross model support.

Model latency theory supports gfs.

 

Edited by Kasim Awan
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not even responding to this. 

A more credible model is consistent.

Gfs has more cross model support.

Model latency theory supports gfs.

Personally I think UKMO has got this nailed.  However the ECM not on board is a *big* worry.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not even responding to this. 

A more credible model is consistent.

Gfs has more cross model support.

Model latency theory supports gfs.

Excuse my ignorance but what is model latency theory?

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

Ecm doesn't quite do it for most of England on this run but as Blue often says the trend is the trend. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see it fully in line with gfs/ukmo come the 12z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not even responding to this. 

A more credible model is consistent.

Gfs has more cross model support.

Model latency theory supports gfs.

The differences are not massive on the global scale, I am not sure what model latency is BTW.

There are not to many occasions when one model is completely correct and another is completely wrong, this maybe one of those occasions but the ECM output fits into the envelope of outcomes which simply means it can’t be dismissed.

there will be a blending of outcomes at some point today.

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

In the past couple of days, GFS has been much more consistent with its operationals when compared with the ECM. This lends it a little bit more credibility than we might normally allow when comparing it to the European model.

The ECM continues to turn slowly towards the rest of the models but continues to be a little too far north with its cold on Christmas Day. It is well within the envelope of possibilities though and therefore needs respecting as a potential solution. Just because it is worse doesn't mean it can't verify like that  

As a conclusion though, I do expect it to make a few more southerly corrections, perhaps not by too much though. Will we get a middle ground or will the ECM do more of the shifting when the 12zs come around?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The differences are not massive on the global scale, I am not sure what model latency is BTW.

There are not to many occasions when one model is completely correct and another is completely wrong, this maybe one of those occasions but the ECM output fits into the envelope of outcomes which simply means it can’t be dismissed.

there will be a blending of outcomes at some point today.

 

I am not dismissing ecm either just saying gfs is more credible

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

It’s a worry that ECM isn’t on board, because luck would say the. U.K. generally ends up following the least cold model. Let’s look at the ENS, If the Op is a outlier and the next GFS holds well I’d say it could swing cold next run.  Thankfully the UKMO is cold, although it didn’t look like it would last.

Gutted about the ECM though

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
11 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Well after Thursday Friday Saturday temperature rise (no snow for us in midlands) it’s looking like a cold snap out until New Year’s Eve. 

What are you basing a ‘cold snap’ on?  A cold snap is 36-48 hours.  A week I’d call a spell.   

ECM aligning with others, but tbf I think let’s see what 12z on Wed show.  There’s still more movement in all this.

Very good start today though.

BFTP

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s a worry that ECM isn’t on board, because luck would say the. U.K. generally ends up following the least cold model. Let’s look at the ENS, If the Op is a outlier and the next GFS holds well I’d say it could swing cold next run.  Thankfully the UKMO is cold, although it didn’t look like it would last.

Gutted about the ECM though

When you compare it to yesterday, that should temper that guttedness?

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

I appreciate many are micro analysing the detail for obvious reasons. I would be if I lived further north. Big picture of nhp is very good for opportunities even if Christmas isn’t white.

797F96B4-74FA-4885-9138-760FED208DD0.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

The UKv for Christmas day, cold for the majority by the evening..

03_114_850_temps.thumb.png.84458677226df98a0b4b853b232390c2.png

Precipitation..

03_114_rain_rate.thumb.png.788c908fc439f5feacaff9a1cd221ca1.png

03_117_rain_rate.thumb.png.794418051b0462e97b926f303b65bbb8.png

Can you see boxing days charts? Looked good for the south 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TanHillWeather Rookie

TanHillWeather

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Dales, 530m (1732ft) asl
  • Location: Yorkshire Dales, 530m (1732ft) asl
Posted

image.thumb.gif.58ca14c12e59c539648b9c94a6984b7f.gif
 

GFS Ensembles solid for Yorkshire area until the big day and then they split massively. op and control in the lower section, guessing those warmer runs are similar to this mornings EC det.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Georgina Aficionado

Georgina

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Derbyshire
Posted

I have very very little knowledge not like you guys at all , but from watching the models for a few years it’s nearly always the gfs that comes into line with the ecm !

If we have a stubborn ecm it usually ends with the gfs downgrading and the ecm slightly moving towards the gfs to meet in the middle ! 
 

of course I’m probably wrong as I say not as experienced as you guys 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
iowpompeylee Aficionado

iowpompeylee

Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
Posted

Just read through 10 pages. This is a pleasure, to have this in the build up to Christmas is a coldies dream! Would love the low to keep heading south…. A few days to go yet so who knows?? I’m expecting the ECM to eat a little humble pie tonight! Looks a little behind. All the best everyone 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

I must hand it to the ECM, it takes a real tightrope walk to produce an Easterly in December with cold that close to the UK, and manages to give around average temperatures for most.

I must confess that I am sceptical of a run that manages at no point to get that low near the U.K. to interact with a trough that is sitting just the other side of the North Sea. The other models do and they pull in cold air into the U.K. There are still issues as to where the boundary is, but the ECM’s idea of there being nothing looks dubious at the moment. 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jordan S Experienced

Jordan S

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Can you see boxing days charts? Looked good for the south 

It doesn't go any further but would be showing a cold and dry rest of boxing day for most except for a few snow showers moving south over northern England and Scotland.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Early news on the mean eps days 4-6 - not a huge change, but the cold filters south much faster and the 0C (850) isotherm has cleared the south coast during Boxing day.  Better than last night's suite.

Edited by mulzy
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, mulzy said:

Early news on the eps days 4-6 - not a huge change, but the cold filters south much faster and the 0C isotherm has cleared the south coast during Boxing day.  Significantly better than last night's suite.

Well this is good news, very good news. I’m guessing the Op will be a marked outlier then? I hope anyway. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Early news on the eps days 4-6 - not a huge change, but the cold filters south much faster and the 0C isotherm has cleared the south coast during Boxing day.  Better than last night's suite.

What is the clustering between ecm op & gfs op solution within the eps?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...