Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Lukesluckybunch]

have to look more likely to the northeast on this run,might be ok will see

[carinthian]

Morning all. A bit of an update from the team. Reasons to be joyful this morning from the NWPs ? Certainly so from the UKMO , which gathers the switch to cold at some pace. Looking at the latest fax chart , there is some input to show both a advance of what I would take as the Arctic front and also the Atlantic front heading from the SW approaches. Looks like the clash of the different types is to take place Christmas Night into Boxing Day. Of course , the ECM jet is so different with its jet position compared to GFS and wants to keep any attempt of cold domination over the British Isles  to its Northern Reaches. So there still remains a doubt but the signals are now positively turning to a cold transfer into most of the British Isles by the end of Boxing Day.

The team have access to a powerful  fine mesh snow computer which it uses to provides the resort with amazing snow predictions with its close grid co-ordinates. It also has a facility to produce outer perimeter results with its early runs (ERL) providing snow fall amount predictions with -in the (36-60 hr) time span. So we are not in that time zone just yet. However, the snow forecasting tool has a wider grid co-ordinate that flags up potential snow with-in its outer reaches. So looking at the British Isles, it currently shows the greatest snow potential Christmas Night into Boxing Day in a zone  with a more acute NW/SE alignment than yesterday, looks like County Sligo, North Wales, Southern Pennines into North Midlands, but the experts think this could correct very quickly with events gather a pace now. All sounds very exciting for you lot !

Hope this helps.

C

[sheikhy]

Icon looks a big upgrade at 90 hours??!!!

[Coxxy657]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This tpv segment is headed into scandi and Russia 

if ya change the view to Europe, a little bit breaks off and ends up just above the uk

Edited December 21, 2021 by Coxxy657

[bluearmy]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Icon looks a big upgrade at 90 hours??!!!

Big is an overused word on here but yes, it’s edged in a better direction with the wedge a little stronger and the low further west 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon looks a big upgrade at 90 hours??!!!

agree.isobars more southeast direction,lower pressure of continent...easterly flow xmas day on this one!..sorry guys well almost didnt slide properly

Edited December 21, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[geordiekev]

Do you think Bookies have seen this mornings GFS, talk about Scrooge

[sheikhy]

Actualy i will say its moved towards what the ecm shows at 120 hours!carbon copy in actual fact!!!especially with that high over the pole!!oh boy

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Actualy i will say its moved towards what the ecm shows at 120 hours!carbon copy in actual fact!!!especially with that high over the pole!!oh boy

do you like this run?sheikhy

[The Northern Ramper]

2 hours ago, jordan smith said:

The UKv for Christmas day, cold for the majority by the evening.

Precipitation..

Cold but poor for snow for my location, a white Xmas would have been nice.

[Fozfoster]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What are you basing a ‘cold snap’ on?  A cold snap is 36-48 hours.  A week I’d call a spell.   

ECM aligning with others, but tbf I think let’s see what 12z on Wed show.  There’s still more movement in all this.

Very good start today though.

BFTP

Hi BFTP so what’s 5 days then

[The Northern Ramper]

38 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Being in the middle of the UK ish one thing i have observed is that when this system approaches ,no matter how far north its forecasted limit is,its northern extent nearly always ends up further North.

Good radar watching.Looking forward to your musings as we approach 00 hrs

It needs to be about 200 miles further north for us.

[The Eagle]

ICON continues to be consistent this morning. Minor intra run fluctuations as normal but these are inconsequential really. Been far better than the rest for persistency. Whether it's ball park in the end remains to be seen but based on previous 'events' I have high confidence it won't be far away. We shall see.

[The Northern Ramper]

39 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

WRF NMM 0z for Christmas Day evening

 

WRF NMM 0z for early Boxing Day

Some of the more high res models ( eg NMM are now coming into range for Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Worth keeping an eye on over coming days as the cold air heads South and the rain turns to snow at boundary x

Looks to suggest showers from the east hitting the Pennines?

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

do you like this run?sheikhy

Its okay over the uk becuase there is more disruption and its moved everything west but it looks more like ecm than gfs and ukmo overall!!!the fact is that there was some pretty big changes early on in the run which kinds looked for the better!!

[jethro]

37 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Winter is Dec Jan and Feb .  This 21st thing seems to be an import from the USA. 

All stats regarding winter include just those months .

Nope. It's astrological, dates from pre-history times, shortest day always marked the first day of winter - Stonehenge will give you a clue as to how long this date has stood as a benchmark. The modern Dec, Jan, Feb is simply an invention to neatly divide the year up, invented and adopted by meteorological societies.

[Liam Burge]

Good wake up call this morning! Checked a few different weather apps and most of them are in agreement for me to have some snow on Boxing day. Would anyone be able to tell me which weather forecasts are the most accurate and which ones are normally the least accurate? Just so I know which ones to pay attention too.

[sheikhy]

I say if and a big if!!but if the gfs 06z continues on from its 00z run then i see no other than an embarrassing back down from ecm later on!!!very rarely that happens!!

[geordiekev]

54 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

what on earth is it up to !! two days in a row the morning run been this way....can anybody enlighten me @Kasim Awan?

Noticed this going on for years, afternoon evening upgrades followed by balloon bursting morning runs. Not sure if data issue but verification stats lower on 6zs I believe Paul said a few days ago. Weekends similar too

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

I say if and a big if!!but if the gfs 06z continues on from its 00z run then i see no other than an embarrassing back down from ecm later on!!!very rarely that happens!!

stranger things have happened but I think with UKMO on board with gfs etc - we are okay, I think ECM will eventually find its way

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

I say if and a big if!!but if the gfs 06z continues on from its 00z run then i see no other than an embarrassing back down from ecm later on!!!very rarely that happens!!

yea as i said earlier this morning,despite all the background signals gefs gfs op control etc.sadly i have a feeling ECM is onto somthing here,dont think the 6z will be as good.

[Lloyd1]

Ecm latest run is shocking even for last couple of days of Dec, hopefully we don’t follow suit

[mbrothers]

On 21/12/2021 at 09:27, Lukesluckybunch said:

yea as i said earlier this morning,despite all the background signals gefs gfs op control etc.sadly i have a feeling ECM is onto somthing here,dont think the 6z will be as good.

Anything scientific?

[feb1991blizzard]

whats the panic about the ECM op?, its out of kilter with eps which although not as good as 0z GEFS, they were a massive shift towards them.

Edited December 21, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Dave Kightley]

Will these be cold enough?

 

UKV very good for Southern England at midnight Boxing Day btw.. new to Netweather extra.. I finally joined 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Dave Kightley