Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Kasim Awan]

Looks like we've come to some sort of agreement.

Weaker front with precip stalling over the s mids & s wales. Potentially further south.

On gfs 18z op we're not talking less snow in the south, we're talking none until you hit the hills in Gloustershire / Wales when orographic lift is enough to outweigh the poor convective rates this weak front has.

[weathercold]

You can’t polish a turd, it very much feels as though some are trying to do just that.

we are scraping the barrel right now, even if some do see a covering of snow, it will be very transitional at best.

[Sceptical]

"Long is the way and hard, that out of Hell leads up to the light”

Plenty of opportunities to come  

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The gfs 18z op -> dusting to lower levels south mids into southern counties

Due to nature of frontal dynamics (not temperature), elevation needed.

Compare accum and uk elevation map.

But you were happy with the 12z which had this…

[MJB]

Just now, Sceptical said:

"Long is the way and hard, that out of Hell leads up to the light”

Plenty of opportunities to come  

Yes there most certainly is 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Mate this whole spell has been on a knife edge for a while now looked decent at the start of all this now just looks bog standard cooler spell . Well we’re used to it by now . That’s 2 big fails already with heights failing to are NW ( the November one and now this ) bloody frustrating. Onto the next chase  

 

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Keep the faith my friend. Can't believe the despondency on here tonight. I was going to post some ecm op runs from the last few days to compare them to tonight's but I'm not going to bother as it seems some on here need a good night's kip to regain their marbles. Believe me, ecm backed down big style tonight. Gfs has bossed this one. That is something that will be built upon tomorrow. 

Gfs has moved towards ecm op.

Compare the two 120h.

No momentum with the Xmas night front

Snow negligable away from hills and a few lucky low level areas (by my ridiculous Flash standards )

- Tomorrow turnaround chance 35%

 

[jayb1989]

Well, it’s been an interesting watch over the last few days. Still a chance of some snow in certain places with some transient cold around boxing day.

However, if like me you don’t find that exciting and are after a proper cold spell, where snow falls and hangs around for 3 or 4 days and temperatures don’t rise above freezing, you might as well forget it anytime soon.

Hopefully we can get something more positive as we move into January.

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

But you were happy with the 12z which had this…

It was that bit more vigorous.

It is getting tedious people picking out every detail in my comments. Try to contribute some valid analysis.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[weathercold]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

 

Gfs has moved towards ecm op.

Compare the two 120h.

No momentum with the Xmas night front

Snow negligable away from hills and a few lucky low level areas (by my ridiculous Flash standards )

- Tomorrow turnaround chance 35%

 

I love the enthusiasm and positivity but cannot see any truly wintry Synoptics offering deep cold and snow for many, it simply does not exist currently and would be misleading to say it does.

[frosty ground]

It’s no surprise that the models are converging and no model is ever 100% right, still snow is a possibility over the Xmas period but the period after looks like we are back to square one looking for another shot at cold and snow.

next time you read incredibly high percentage chances at over 8 days away or have model output being binned for some subjective reason that “it won’t behave like that” just ignore it.

If a run is within the envelope of outcomes then it’s never bin worthy and if someone is selling you a dream of a dead vet over 72 hours away then it’s just that a dream.

 

 

[markw2680]

Blimey it’s all gone depressing in here hasn’t it. We are all weather enthusiasts in here otherwise we wouldn’t be here but blooming heck there’s so many more important things in life than to be so downbeat about the lack of cold or snow that might or might not fall. End of the day aim low and then you won’t get so disappointed when it all goes tits up.

onto tomorrow you never know might wake upto a buzzing forum again

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

I love the enthusiasm and positivity but cannot see any truly wintry Synoptics offering deep cold and snow for many, it simply does not exist currently and would be misleading to say it does.

Not sure I agree with this. The downgrade we've seen today is for xmas night - too early to suggest what will happen after. 

[Kasim Awan]

Still lots of time for a turnaround as I said. We were here 2 days ago then it suddenly improved.

Stiff upper lip guys

[ICE COLD]

One thing I’ve learnt this last week is do not trust any model or ens suits they’ve all been useless. 

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

 

Gfs has moved towards ecm op.

Compare the two 120h.

No momentum with the Xmas night front

Snow negligable away from hills and a few lucky low level areas (by my ridiculous Flash standards )

- Tomorrow turnaround chance 35%

 

Oh I’m not saying a few won’t get a good covering mate . But what was on offer 5 days back was so much better . We were looking at a nice clean cold feed now we’ve got patchy uppers (excluding the scots) it just don’t cut the mustard . Lose count of the amount of failed cold spells year in year out . Have a nice Christmas everyone

Edited December 21, 2021 by ICE COLD

[weathercold]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Not sure I agree with this. The downgrade we've seen today is for xmas night - too early to suggest what will happen after. 

But to be fair is there anything on offer currently showing true winter Synoptics for many? I’m all for championing wintry nirvana charts but I’m just not seeing anything resembling this at all.

we all live in hope - right now though we are chasing shadows I’m afraid. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, weathercold said:

But to be fair is there anything on offer currently showing true winter Synoptics for many? I’m all for championing wintry nirvana charts but I’m just not seeing anything resembling this at all.

we all live in hope - right now though we are chasing shadows I’m afraid. 

It's all about the chase mate

These turdy synoptics could be a precursor... and the xmas night snow could well have one last big twist.

No one including me has said there is a likelihood of nirvana type widespread deep cold & snow. What I said is a chance of a cold & wintry episode from the east around xmas. 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, weathercold said:

But to be fair is there anything on offer currently showing true winter Synoptics for many? I’m all for championing wintry nirvana charts but I’m just not seeing anything resembling this at all.

we all live in hope - right now though we are chasing shadows I’m afraid. 

Agreed with this, for a brief time it did look interesting but this screams elevated wet snow and rain for most at lower levels. The globals generally overdo snowfall in this setup, whilst the higher resolution models generally aren't keen at all.

At least many will share the far south's rain this time round.

Edited December 21, 2021 by kold weather

[northwestsnow]

Hopefully the models extend the influence of that Greenland high on the 00z runs .

I'm still thinking these lows will correct south ...

Probably last chance saloon for Xmas day ...

[bluearmy]

Poor gefs in comparison with the past four runs 

Low uppers missing (relative)  from the day 6-8 period and also the least snowy suite over the past 24 hours ….

[weathercold]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's all about the chase mate

These turdy synoptics could be a precursor... and the xmas night snow could well have one last big twist.

No one including me has said there is a likelihood of nirvana type widespread deep cold & snow. What I said is a chance of a cold & wintry episode from the east around xmas. 

We live in hope mate …

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So here is my Christmas scene

 

No snow there.  BUT we might get some….oh no some WILL get some 

BFTP

 

[The Enforcer]

A low-resolution model cannot be relied on to pick out accurate snowfall 5+days out.

In November 2021, even the high resolution models at the beginning of that weekend said any snow threat here would be on Saturday 27th November 2021 and that Sunday 28th November 2021would be dry. It snowed on Sunday 28th November 2021.

There are 16 runs before Sunday, so these forecasts are likely to keep jumping about all over the place before then. T+0 forecasts are often wrong when it comes the the very basic question of wet vs dry and snowfall is an infinitely more complex question to answer.

It's good to be in with just a shout at Xmas for once.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Poor gefs in comparison with the past four runs 

Low uppers missing (relative)  from the day 6-8 period and also the least snowy suite over the past 24 hours ….

Big move to ecm, snowier option derailed 

[blizzard81]

14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

 

Gfs has moved towards ecm op.

Compare the two 120h.

No momentum with the Xmas night front

Snow negligable away from hills and a few lucky low level areas (by my ridiculous Flash standards )

- Tomorrow turnaround chance 35%

 

OK, you left me no choice. I couldn't disagree with you more. The ecm has handled the atlantic trough disruption (or should I say lack of until today) abysmally. 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's all about the chase mate

These turdy synoptics could be a precursor... and the xmas night snow could well have one last big twist.

No one including me has said there is a likelihood of nirvana type widespread deep cold & snow. What I said is a chance of a cold & wintry episode from the east around xmas. 

In which case perhaps you need to adjust the way you write some of your posts because scanning through them fairly quickly (which is what a lot of people do on here when it’s busy), I was  under the impression that you were of that mindset before this evening's runs which seem to have knocked your enthusiasm 

good that you’ve clarified that you hadn’t