SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Marie]

I remember the storm of 87 , it was very frightening , we lost our garage roof , guttering fell through our front room window . I couldn’t believe the devastation the following day .  Are we comparing this storm to the storm of 87 ?  I really hope we aren’t expecting the same .Stay safe everyone 

[lassie23]

14 minutes ago, Marie said:

I remember the storm of 87 , it was very frightening , we lost our garage roof , guttering fell through our front room window . I couldn’t believe the devastation the following day .  Are we comparing this storm to the storm of 87 ?  I really hope we aren’t expecting the same .Stay safe everyone 

I was woken by the sounds of breaking glass in 87, I thought the world was coming to an end I was young though lol

[hotsummer]

Hi all, been quite some time since I posted. Mere observer! Anyway…

So I’m wondering why there appears to be only an amber warning for tomorrow despite apparent likely wind speeds?

I’d have thought with those speeds… 

- and a large and densely populated area

- a large (very) urban areas 

- and tall/densely packed buildings in parts creating increased local speeds with the fact there is a greater population ^

…would result in an increased risk of injury etc. More buildings to be damaged means greater risk of flying debris (notwithstanding garden items), and with more people meaning a higher chance of someone copping it. Or is it that the winds aren’t so likely to cause quite this despite the greater chance of something flying and hitting someone or a moving car etc. 

I see reasons for it in the SW. Looks very bad, but it’s hardly looking much less around the SE - the most densely populated part.

I’ve seen us with gusts of over 50mph and it’s been ok. I don’t know if it’ll get much over that. To me it seems it could be unlikely if I take warnings at face value. Public perception is key here I feel.

I can only assume it won’t be quite that bad on this basis. And seemingly this is the perception. This is hardly the amber first warning we’ve had for weather and the events have never posed much of an issue. So people get complacent with that level. 

Having just got in I saw numerous bins out on the paths and drives. Soon they’ll be parted from their owners. Park bins with some tied up bags next to them too, and a few very full but this isn’t too unusual with the local parish! Not only that but I’ve also seen someone on my Twitter feed wishing their SW followers luck for tomorrow seemingly unaware that we’ll have a little more than a breeze here! And with so much more around is this a good thing to have millions thinking? 

So yeah, it must be the risk isn’t great enough and it won’t be quite that bad?? 

Having read on here I get the feeling it will be bad, but then more officially less so! 

Edited February 17, 2022 by hotsummer

[bobbydog]

I reckon it could be busy at work next week...

I work for a fencing supplies company...

[Kent Blizzard]

54 minutes ago, Marie said:

I remember the storm of 87 , it was very frightening , we lost our garage roof , guttering fell through our front room window . I couldn’t believe the devastation the following day .  Are we comparing this storm to the storm of 87 ?  I really hope we aren’t expecting the same .Stay safe everyone 

I wouldn't like to say yes or no.

87 the only good thing is it was during the night, tomorrow is during the day which gves me concern not just for our region.

Satellite seems like it's a touch further North.

[Tn9]

3 hours ago, Mark Bayley said:

Seems some of the models have moderated winds slightly. Still 60 to perhaps 70mph across my parts of London. Could be up to 80mph for a time in other parts of the region. Don't think we'll see a red warning but it will be close. In any case expect a few fence panels down, bins over, branches / the odd tree!

If you look at gfs 18 run Tuesday today's 12 z it's actually more intense it under cooked it really (that's a first I hear you say ,)so using that logic another little disturbance runs across our patch late Saturday afternoon ..maybe that will deepen more too?? Then another period of heavy gusts in on cards 

Tbh all.day Sunday out to say.Monday eve  is blowy 

Edited February 17, 2022 by TN9

[Norfolk Sheep]

13 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I wouldn't like to say yes or no.

87 the only good thing is it was during the night, tomorrow is during the day which gves me concern not just for our region.

Satellite seems like it's a touch further North.

Further north isn't necessarily a good thing (depending on how far north) as strongest winds are on the southern side.

[Kent Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Further north isn't necessarily a good thing (depending on how far north) as strongest winds are on the southern side.

Exactly, I think we have a few more hours yet to be certain.......late night again lol

[bobbydog]

Arpege has 80mph gusts widely across the South East around midday.... 

[crazy_diamond]

Just seen on FB

Local council Storm Eunice advice

comment reads:

”Have you seen this?”

response is

”yeah, but with it coming from Wales it might slow down by the time it reaches us.”

[MAF]

eerily calm out there tonight. even my windtunnel of a street coming off the thames has no movement in the trees. currently 8.5C and 999mb

bit like snow watching the lamp post, waiting for the winds to pick up

[Marie]

3 minutes ago, MAF said:

eerily calm out there tonight. even my windtunnel of a street coming off the thames has no movement in the trees. currently 8.5C and 999mb

bit like snow watching the lamp post, waiting for the winds to pick up

Yes I just said the same thing to my daughter , it’s very calm , even the birds were still singing at 8.30pm , very Eerie out there . I’m slightly concerned now if I’m honest , I think this storm is going to be a whopper 

[MAF]

Don't forget everyone, Life is more precious than a photo. Don't feel the need to get that one shot if it means taking a risk.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Calm before the storm today, eerily still, told all my friends about it on Instagram, twitter and WhatsApp and bothered a certain someone on WhatsApp the whole day (sorry to them not that they're ever going to see this) but I think it's worth it because they seemed to have no clue about this major storm.

[North Easterly Breeze]

Fearing the worst for those folks in coastal areas SE Essex like myself. 80mph+ looks nailed on. Stay safe, this is serious. 

[North Easterly Breeze]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Calm before the storm today, eerily still, told all my friends about it on Instagram, twitter and WhatsApp and bothered a certain someone on WhatsApp the whole day (sorry to them not that they're ever going to see this) but I think it's worth it because they seemed to have no clue about this major storm.

Vast majority of people are oblivious. As long as they can watch Netflix and cook their dinner, it’s business as usual. 

[andymcpool]

2 hours ago, Marie said:

I remember the storm of 87 , it was very frightening , we lost our garage roof , guttering fell through our front room window . I couldn’t believe the devastation the following day .  Are we comparing this storm to the storm of 87 ?  I really hope we aren’t expecting the same .Stay safe everyone 

Thought I’d dig this old classic out, it was a vicious night.

 

 

 

[Marie]

2 minutes ago, andymcpool said:

Thought I’d dig this old classic out, it was a vicious night.

 

 

 

I remember watching this programme

[MAF]

'87 was the first time i ever felt scared of the weather. lived in the top flat 5 floors up and had wooden window frames and single glazed. i actually went outside at around 4 in the morning to get out the flat as i thought the windows would blow through. had no idea of the time so walked to work using the middle of the roads to try and avoid slates, tiles, branches and debris. scary.

[North Easterly Breeze]

Must be a red warning for the SE imminently surely. Look at those numbers.

[MAF]

the one odd thing i have noticed with all the forecasts is that it will actually be quite dry tomorrow here in the SE. if it was to be heavy rain along with storm force gusts i think the situation would be a lot worse.

[If Wishes made Weather]

3 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Must be a red warning for the SE imminently surely. Look at those numbers.

I am right under that and not all that amused.  Arome is showing a similar thing as the system pulls away:

 

and the ICON is simply horrendous.

[North Easterly Breeze]

1 minute ago, If Wishes made Weather said:

I am right under that and not all that amused.  Arome is showing a similar thing as the system pulls away:

 

and the ICON is simply horrendous.

Looks pretty set now. Serious stuff. Stay safe and let’s just hope any damage is minimal. 

[Kent Blizzard]

Imagine if we had the internet in 1987!!! 

the majority of us went to bed not knowing what was about to happen...

[Soaring Hawk]

Evening all, after yesterday's fun and games of a split lip and swollen eye after being hit by a small falling branch while picking up debris from the wheelie bin that broke loose from its secure accommodation, it seems eerily calm this evening.  Top temp today recorded as 11.4°C at 14:40.  Currently 7.7°C with 81% humidity.  Wind has been mostly from a westerly direction, save a brief spell veering WNW, now from a south westerly direction and only 4mph.  No rain has fallen since midnight.   Pressure currently 1007.8hPa falling slowly - so here we go.   

My part of the NHS is letting me work from home tomorrow; laptop is on charge so I can work from my hiding place, even if the tree I'm worried about does end up falling through the conservatory....

Stay safe everyone. 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Soaring Hawk