SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Kent Blizzard]

Plenty of twists and turns to come no doubt, but at least some interesting weather to focus on.

Ready for a ride on the rollercoaster?

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kent Blizzard

[Freeze]

It's nice to finally have some exciting weather on the horizon! 

Quite nice today, sunny spells,slight breeze and reached 11.5c 

[Sparky68]

Back down to a seasonable 1c this morning. Not looking forward to the winds at the end of the week 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Either GFS has been drinking over night or it is trying to fall in line with the ICON. Either way... We should all start taking note from tomorrow if these charts are still showing.. IF they are would probably go down as the strongest storm I have ever experienced (28 years old) Maximum in my location was 71mph and I was around 12-14 years old I think but remember it very well... 

Although powerful.. it is short thanks to the speed the storm is moving out HOWEVER this brings added sting jet concerns 

[lottiekent]

Morning

Not sure if it’s a good thing about Friday’s storm that it should happen during daylight hours? On one hand, you can see what’s happening if damage should occur, on the other, people will be out and about which raises the risk of injuries.

This morning it’s 0.7c and still falling - actually going into the office today so looks like I’ll have to de ice the car for the first time in 2 years!

[Jimmyh]

Morning all not posted fir a while... been snoozing through the winter. If it is still this strong tomorrow I will be warning my mum to do her shopping on Thursday.

I believe and @Surrey will pick me up on this, I don't think there is much doubt GFS has definitely dropped it further south this morning. 

Think Amber warnings will be in by tomorrow mornings update. Don't think they will leave it till Thursday. Again not being dramatic but I can see red warnings going out on Thursday. 

It's still in its infancy but the fact that all of the major players have it in sight and deep shows this is one of those once in a decade two decade scenarios. 

I remember 87 and burns day storm as well. They shut the school at lunchtime. And quickly sent everyone home on the burns day storm. Buses got cancelled and walking up the hill to home was a struggle. Lights flickering and the phone wires pinging. 

87 obv was so different. I will never forget my dad going out about 2 am to make sure everything was secure. Woken by the howling wind which just got stronger and stronger. About 5 am I was watching out the window when the whole of Croydon had a power cut. Even in the darkness you could see trees down as where they were no more silhouette of them. 

More watching today. Let's enjoy the 17 degrees today and prepare for Friday's storm. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

@Jimmyh Amber warnings will probably go out late tomorrow or on tomorrow mornings 10am update and review... 

Red warning maybe but you would kind of need the charts showing now to still be there Thursday. Then a red warning will probs be issued sometime Thursday..  although a rare beast and I've never seen a red warning for wind in our region before.

GFS has shifted south slightly..  more in-line with ICON be good to see ECM and Arpege do the same and try get some good cross model agreement.

One thing for sure, if these charts are showing tomorrow evening..  that leaves little wriggle room for big downgrades in wind speeds so we need to take note.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

ECM has gone further south slightly... seems a trend at the moment not good.. alignment between models is slowly taking place 

For my location and anyone in and around the Thames Valley. That is near perfect direction of wind to funnel it down. Direct southerly I'm protected in my location from the worst but direct westerly fully exposed..

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Surrey

[LightningLover]

And yet another uptick in Intensity for Coastal east sussex from the ICON... I spy a 101mph near Beachy head!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

32 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

And yet another uptick in Intensity for Coastal east sussex from the ICON... I spy a 101mph near Beachy head!!

Im going for a ICON GFS blend here... Somewhere in between.. ICON has been poor with tracking low especially a few winters back it was so far out compared to the GFS and even the ARPEGE. 

That said, there is no reason that the southward shifts continue and it misses us altogether and Northern France take the brunt. 

[Sparky68]

44 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

And yet another uptick in Intensity for Coastal east sussex from the ICON... I spy a 101mph near Beachy head!!

KM or MPH ?

[LightningLover]

1 minute ago, Sparky68 said:

KM or MPH ?

MPH

[NO LONGER POSTING]

ECM  9am Friday  - MPH

Edited February 15, 2022 by Surrey

[saint]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

ECM  9am Friday  - MPH

So looking at 70mph+ broadly across the region as it stands Friday using that chart?

[lawrenk]

1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

And yet another uptick in Intensity for Coastal east sussex from the ICON... I spy a 101mph near Beachy head!!

Looking pretty horrific as it stands for our neck of the woods. Hoping this slides ever further south (sorry to our French friends!)

[Kent Blizzard]

It's a good job the trees aren't in leaf, that doesn't mean they can't fall though, especially watch out for shallow rooted conifers. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

17 minutes ago, saint said:

So looking at 70mph+ broadly across the region as it stands Friday using that chart?

Yeh similar thinking to met... 

60-70mph inland

80-90mph exposed and coasts..

Very slight chance of a rouge 80mph inland 

[Mark Bayley]

Snap shot for Friday so far: 

ICON: 50mph gusts quite widely, 60mph to 70mph on the south coast

ARPEGE: 60 to 70pmph gusts quite widely, perhaps 80mph north of the Thames  / SE corner for a time

GFS: 60 to 70pmph gusts quite widely, perhaps 80mph north of the Thames  / SE corner for a time

GEM:  70 to 80mph gusts quite widely

UKMO: 70 to 80mph gusts quite widely, perhaps 90mph+ on the south coast for a time 

So all models bar the ICON show potentially damaging winds for a time. Expect orange warnings tomorrow across our whole region unless there is a dramatic shift towards the ICON (though would still expect orange warning close to the south coast)

 

[lewis028]

Fingers crossed Icon is on the money. Out on its own at the moment Not only would we then have less potentially damaging winds, most of the precipitation will be snow too.

Can see this going down to a nowcast event when the low appears on the radar/satellite images, only a correction 100 miles north or south can make a huge difference with the winds/precipitation. 
More interesting weather for sure! But also quite worrying! 

Edited February 15, 2022 by lewis028

[rubble79]

When was the last time we had winds like this in the SE? I’m thinking it was around 9 years ago? I know we’ve had a few storms since but I can’t recall the winds being at this strength 

[suffolkboy_]

11 minutes ago, rubble79 said:

When was the last time we had winds like this in the SE? I’m thinking it was around 9 years ago? I know we’ve had a few storms since but I can’t recall the winds being at this strength 

28th October 2014 was the last time I experienced such winds in Suffolk, and that was very localised as it was due to a sting jet. 10 miles up the road it was just an average autumn storm. This willow branch flew over 50 yards and nearly hit my grandmothers house. 
 

Im sure there were sustained winds over 40mph in January 2018 (obviously gusting much more) but I was on holiday in Australia at the time and missed it. 
 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by suffolkboy_

[suffolkboy_]

Dan Holley talking up Friday’s storm for the East more than the national forecast. 

[Eagle Eye]

Guess who forgot to take a picture today in daylight and so am just going to talk about the light lasting a little longer in the distance.

[Lauren]

We've just put some new fence panels in. If they get blown down again, I will be fining Eunice and Dudley.

[Soaring Hawk]

Ironically, I recently got a tree surgeon quote to lop off 3-4 metres from the exceptionally high eucalyptus tree that is the closest to the conservatory of the back garden big trees; they can't do it until the latter half of March.   Am now suffering from IMBY nerves and hoping Friday's storm will be more around Icon's wind speeds than the other models.  

Haven't managed a weather report for ages due to work demands and exhausted when not working.  Today's high temperature was 9°C at 12:00 coinciding with the first drizzle after a gloriously sunny start to the day and an overnight low of 2.3°C  at 2am.   Breezy day with winds from either a SW or WSW direction gusting in the 20's with a couple of higher gusts of 30mph - even at those speeds the thrashing eucalyptus looks scary.  Currently wind reduced to an average over 2 minutes of 7.5 and 10 minute average of 6.3mph from the WSW.   Pressure is 10041.4hPa falling slowly.  4mm of rain has fallen since midnight, taking February's total up to 17.6mm, exceeding the January month total by 3.6mm.