SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Reefseeker]

12 minutes ago, NYCSnow said:

Just started raining here in Surbiton, getting very dark. Doesn’t look too exciting at the moment though.

The smell is amazing !

We were watching the clouds this afternoon to the north east from the duckponds park feeling rather envious. 

Nice to get a few blobs even if, as you say, it doesn't look too dramatic for now. Beggars can't be choosers and whatnot.

Edit: Still going quite strongly

Edited August 15, 2022 by Reefseeker

[NYCSnow]

9 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

We were watching the clouds this afternoon to the north east from the duckponds park feeling rather envious. 

Nice to get a few blobs even if, as you say, it doesn't look too dramatic for now. Beggars can't be choosers and whatnot.

Edit: Still going quite strongly

Yep, got quite heavy now suddenly, can almost hear the garden breathing a sigh of relief! 

[weirpig]

Still dry here but can certainly see dark clouds upon yonder 

[scrat]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Still dry here but can certainly see dark clouds upon yonder 

'upon yonder'....I like that!  

I see you are in Richmond; it's my wedding anniversary tomorrow and my reception was held in Richmond Upon Thames....happy memories.  Hope it's still as lovely as 19 years ago?!

[Polaris]

Blue sky here. Beautiful summer evening 

Another rainless day in Bedfordshire 

[Norfolk Sheep]

If anyone's desperate...

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/italy/tuscany/florence-centre.html

[Jimmyh]

Fabulous cloud burst at Regents Park. Lovely cloudy and sunny warm evening playing cricket. Very disappointed no lion roars tonight. Walking back to Baker Street tube utterly drenched. Wasn't time to smell the word I can't say lol. Impressive. Few clals od thunder and people standing under trees wtf . I said to one girl I wouldn't stand there as it just went over the top of us. More of the same please 

[Mesoscale]

This weather is frustrating, when places in Nevada, Arizona and Senora in Mexico can get huge thunderstorms but in Herts, Bucks, Ox (and other counties) we cant even get a shower, something is terribly wrong! (Obviously, the devastating floods are not wanted, but we need the rain.)

[Polaris]

16 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

This weather is frustrating, when places in Nevada, Arizona and Senora in Mexico can get huge thunderstorms but in Herts, Bucks, Ox (and other counties) we cant even get a shower, something is terribly wrong! (Obviously, the devastating floods are not wanted, but we need the rain.)

It’s the U.K. mate. A bore fest compared to over the pond. 
 

Not expecting anything other than light rain and maybe something steadier coming from the Atlantic on Thursday. Business as usual.  

[Captain Shortwave]

A high of 30C today, no rain here sadly. I did get a couple of flashes of lightning on the NE section of the M25 heading home around 7pm.

[Norfolk Sheep]

24 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

This weather is frustrating, when places in Nevada, Arizona and Senora in Mexico can get huge thunderstorms but in Herts, Bucks, Ox (and other counties) we cant even get a shower, something is terribly wrong! (Obviously, the devastating floods are not wanted, but we need the rain.)

The downside of being an island with a strong Atlantic influence!

Now, if we were part of the Balearics, September would be rather special...

[biddie]

Looks like some very heavy rain  north of London pushing north east right now developing as it goes . Can't see any strikes yet 

[Mesoscale]

1 minute ago, biddie said:

Looks like some very heavy rain  north of London pushing north east right now developing as it goes . Can't see any strikes yet 

I was going to ask if anyone has seen any lightning, I have been watching but it is a bit too far away for me as some cloud is getting in the way of my line of sight. 

[lottiekent]

40 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

The downside of being an island with a strong Atlantic influence!

Now, if we were part of the Balearics, September would be rather special...

Not even any proper Atlantic influence the last few months (year?) though really. February was the last proper wind storm I think?

[Tn9]

8 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Not even any proper Atlantic influence the last few months (year?) though really. February was the last proper wind storm I think?

Yea we down ere don't get proper anything lol ,except the sun and stifling at that,if we miss out tomorrow then the  low isn't proper one and the the occluded front has concluded its not going to do what text book says it should and spark off some showers south of London for a change, cross fingers  

[andymcpool]

8 hours ago, TN9 said:

Yea we down ere don't get proper anything lol ,except the sun and stifling at that,if we miss out tomorrow then the  low isn't proper one and the the occluded front has concluded its not going to do what text book says it should and spark off some showers south of London for a change, cross fingers  

Yeah, must’ve counted at least four fat drops of rain last night!

[Eagle Eye]

There's a something in the channel at the moment and it looks headed for part of Kent/Sussex maybe

Told you all I would bring the Storms back with me

Will do my outlook in a few minutes or so

Edited August 16, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

There's a something in the channel at the moment and I looks headed for part of Kent/Sussex maybe

Told you all I would bring the Storms back with me

Will do my outlook in a few minutes or so

Isn't it later today once the sun has got going the storms are forecast and especially tomorrow as the heat becomes confined to the SE 

[Tn9]

6 minutes ago, andymcpool said:

Yeah, must’ve counted at least four fat drops of rain last night!

We have some beefy clusters in channel at moment but the first one has scaled itself down in area and by the looks heaviness as its approaching Brighton let's hope it doesn't become one of those days again 

[Dami]

Sadly Alexa tells me i will get thunderstorms, we know what that means.

[Captain Shortwave]

Good morning;

A bright start for most this morning, cloud will build again to bring the risk of showers/thunderstorms. Again there doesn't seem to be good agreement on where showers set up and as such it is hard to use the modes to predict the areas with higher risk of heavy rain. There seems to be two areas of interest, the first is a band of thundery rain that is moving north through the channel at the moment, how much intensity it can carry is unknown but could bring downpours south of London in particular, the second is a potential convergence line running south west to north east through the Midlands that might affect northern parts of East Anglia.

Temperatures

23-26C

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, PiscesStar said:

Isn't it later today once the sun has got going the storms are forecast and especially tomorrow as the heat becomes confined to the SE 

Yes, could be some elevated stuff this morning and tomorrow night as well but the daytime stuff is more likely to survive, will of course be hit and miss but you'd probably be quite unlucky to miss them all.

[Tn9]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

There's a something in the channel at the moment and it looks headed for part of Kent/Sussex maybe

Told you all I would bring the Storms back with me

Will do my outlook in a few minutes or so

Isn't it still relatively warm aloft in our patch compared to others ?haven't looked ee but I'm waiting for you  for detail lol,ie ,tomorrow maybe better but the  front may over come that a bit today 

[Eagle Eye]

I've gone for an enhanced risk over most of our region although a moderate for areas around London and most of EA because of the potential for two rounds of Storms highlighted by the UKV, a keen area of interest on the ECM and in the North of the moderate, the ICON D2 gives that region plenty of Storms whilst to the south it does keep that Stormless I decided to extend it south just in case. It also looks to be the area of highest shearing which as shearing increases by nighttime, should mean that the highest organisation as well as the fact that wind convergence has been spotted by the UKV and all models under developed the convergence yesterday, suggesting that that area could get some quite strong convergence, might be another area of convergence in our region that sets up but hard to tell where for now so kept it at enhanced risk. All in all, scattered thunderstorms possible today for most areas, highest coverage and organisation likely over the moderate area, doesn't necessarily mean highest lightning frequency is over that area though. Lightning frequency looks to be roughly the same in most places with the SRW to Change in updraft from outside to inside the core ratio being very similar across the whole area.

Looking at the isobars and those should be fine, just a case of what's currently over Kent pushing further North of time, shouldn't be many worries there.

And for those who want some luck, don't worry, I asked my ginger friend to cross herself, after all she seems to be Storm chasing by accident today by going on a train to London and then will stay in London till the Storms are finished, come back here and might help the SE get further needed rain from the possible overnight Storms.

[Great Plum]

Morning everyone, have driven up to my parents’ house in Suffolk yesterday and we had a very heavy shower (about 20 minutes) at The dartford crossing - the storms then went around my parents’ village but they’ve barely had a drop of rain!