Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Tim Bland]

2 hours ago, okidoke said:

Well looking at the long rang model from the Met who seemed to have called it most of the winter already looks grim! ;-(

Least we forget before Christmas when we saw all those amazing winter charts they stuck to their mild forecast and was right! 

9th - 23rd January 2022

There is the potential for a short, settled spell to begin the period, before more changeable, milder condition return later in the month. Feeling colder with a risk of fog during any settled spells. Still the chance for some widely milder conditions too, bringing the risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times

I think the polar vortex is so strong and continues to be so with no or little signs of that changing which will only make zonal and southerly winds even more stronger

How often do you read this?  If you follow it regularly you will know that 2 weeks ago it was describing below average temps and widespread snow and ice for this week.  In fact on Wednesday they were talking about snow for central areas on Christmas Day… truth is they are not very accurate and haven’t  ‘called it right’ very often so far this winter and they could flip to cold and snow again any day

[fergieweather]

26 minutes ago, fromey said:

And to rub salt into our wounds!!

Hail, I think from the photos & videos I saw a few days ago of this event. Plus reportedly that camel photo is a prior one from another Middle East location a year or two ago. 

[jules216]

Just read UKMo 16-31d, gone is the cold wording altogether. In the models what we can see are 2 features that plagued our recent winters. 1.Iberian High, 2.poorly placed Atlantic trough, UK really needs all cards to allign,unbelievable. Here in Slovakia we escaped mild last minute. I mean that was close, reward is this temperature now that says it all + 15cm snow.

 

[fromey]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Hail, I think from the photos & videos I saw a few days ago of this event. Plus reportedly that camel photo is a prior one from another Middle East location a year or two ago. 

Thanks @fergieweather 

[cyclonic happiness]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How often do you read this?  If you follow it regularly you will know that 2 weeks ago it was describing below average temps and widespread snow and ice for this week.  In fact on Wednesday they were talking about snow for central areas on Christmas Day… truth is they are not very accurate and haven’t  ‘called it right’ very often so far this winter and they could flip to cold and snow again any day

Where is this strong polar vortex? it looks raggedy and it avoiding Greenland like there's no tomorrow. The whole of the runs for the next 12 days look unusual and interesting. I think we will hit the jackpot for cold later next month. Nothing is normal

[Derecho]

27 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

The solar flare and sun spot posts are always a good indication thaf it's looking bleak  

Or it's used as an excuse for a cold punt that has gone wrong lol

[Battleground Snow]

Greenland heights increasing run to run,

Yes I know they shouldn't be trusted and Iberian heights are still present before someone calls me out.

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Greenland heights increasing run to run,

Yes I know they shouldn't be trusted and Iberian heights are still present before someone calls me out.

It looks like the Alaskan heights are about to spill into the pole!! 

[blizzard81]

So cruel. Is it going to be one of those 'nearly' winters again. 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

So cruel. Is it going to be one of those 'nearly' winters again. 

Yes it’s very close. Thankfully it’s already bad for the U.K., so let’s pretend this is what we all want and we may lose it last minute to a big freeze

Shetlands will be cold 

Edited December 26, 2021 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

Here we go again, round 2 of chase the 78-79 setup and just miss out has started.

[fergieweather]

35 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How often do you read this?  If you follow it regularly you will know that 2 weeks ago it was describing below average temps and widespread snow and ice for this week.  In fact on Wednesday they were talking about snow for central areas on Christmas Day… truth is they are not very accurate and haven’t  ‘called it right’ very often so far this winter and they could flip to cold and snow again any day

Hi Tim, in all fairness to UKMO these updates you mention are just one of the many forecast duties performed by (I assume still - certainly was, quite recently) a deputy chief forecaster on a busy shift of many pressing tasks, some of greater immediacy. They're predicated on the 2x weekly updates of extended ECMWF output, plus -  when/if relevant - any conflicting strong signal from Glosea6. Thus the continuity of overall emphasis won't necessarily change day-to-day, as that would become an unfathomable mess reacting run-to-run. In similar vein, the BBC Monthly outlook is also tied to ECMWF updates, albeit over many recent weeks they've (DTN) purposely leaned to caution over that model's solution(s) beyond a ~2 week lead due to poor performance, heading instead in favour of statistical models/analogues. So the UKMO longer-lead switches aren't down to forecasters being volatile(!), but instead the modelling. They're compiled in good faith from the available evidence as they see it, in simplified format, very much as are the BBC ones (ie translating into a public-facing style the more 'technical' sub-seasonal forecasts that DTN issue 2x weekly). It can be a poison chalice writing these, especially in winter. Cheers.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Hi Tim, in all fairness to UKMO these updates you mention are just one of the many forecast duties performed by (I assume still - certainly was, quite recently) a deputy chief forecaster on a busy shift of many pressing tasks, some of greater immediacy. They're predicated on the 2x weekly updates of extended ECMWF output, plus -  when/if relevant - any conflicting strong signal from Glosea6. Thus the continuity of overall emphasis won't necessarily change day-to-day, as that would become an unfathomable mess reacting run-to-run. In similar vein, the BBC Monthly outlook is also tied to ECMWF updates, albeit over many recent weeks they've (DTN) purposely leaned to caution over that model's solution(s) beyond a ~2 week lead due to poor performance, heading instead in favour of statistical models/analogues. So the UKMO longer-lead switches aren't down to forecasters being volatile(!), but instead the modelling. They're compiled in good faith from the available evidence as they see it, in simplified format, very much as are the BBC ones (ie translating into a public-facing style the more 'technical' sub-seasonal forecasts that DTN issue 2x weekly). It can be a poison chalice writing these, especially in winter. Cheers.

Lots of good info their Fergie thanks , nice to see you commenting again. Hopefully you can keep us informed of any “potential cold” that you know many of this forum crave, and not get grief when it’s generally and most likely to go wrong

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Eskimo said:

The solar flare and sun spot posts are always a good indication thaf it's looking bleak  

I personally blame Jeff Bezos

[lassie23]

Dam internet almost quadruple posted  London could still hit 16c this week bbq newyear

[Battleground Snow]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here we go again, round 2 of chase the 78-79 setup and just miss out has started.

Having another think about it in FI, gives us something to look at least

[Gregulator]

We need a decent cold spell, I've so many hats gloves and scarves piled up from my yearly Christmas gifts.

 

[Tim Bland]

A few runs now have shown a wintry 1st weekend of Jan ..  

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lots of good info their Fergie thanks , nice to see you commenting again. Hopefully you can keep us informed of any “potential cold” that you know many of this forum crave, and not get grief when it’s generally and most likely to go wrong

I'm not sure it's helpful for people to pander to these unhealthy cravings

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Hi Tim, in all fairness to UKMO these updates you mention are just one of the many forecast duties performed by (I assume still - certainly was, quite recently) a deputy chief forecaster on a busy shift of many pressing tasks, some of greater immediacy. They're predicated on the 2x weekly updates of extended ECMWF output, plus -  when/if relevant - any conflicting strong signal from Glosea6. Thus the continuity of overall emphasis won't necessarily change day-to-day, as that would become an unfathomable mess reacting run-to-run. In similar vein, the BBC Monthly outlook is also tied to ECMWF updates, albeit over many recent weeks they've (DTN) purposely leaned to caution over that model's solution(s) beyond a ~2 week lead due to poor performance, heading instead in favour of statistical models/analogues. So the UKMO longer-lead switches aren't down to forecasters being volatile(!), but instead the modelling. They're compiled in good faith from the available evidence as they see it, in simplified format, very much as are the BBC ones (ie translating into a public-facing style the more 'technical' sub-seasonal forecasts that DTN issue 2x weekly). It can be a poison chalice writing these, especially in winter. Cheers.

Hi Ian, thanks for the insight. Wasn’t a dig at the forecaster who writes them,  more a response to ‘winter is over’ posts citing the meto long range as evidence. As you say these are compiled based on the data at the time…and that data / model outputs are liable to change. On our tiny island we are vulnerable to small changes so it’s a difficult task …that’s what makes it so interesting ! 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not sure it's helpful for people to pander to these unhealthy cravings

Unhealthy cravings, sound more like a battered Mars bar than a deep freeze - but I get what you’re saying. 

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Hi Ian, thanks for the insight. Wasn’t a dig at the forecaster who writes them,  more a response to ‘winter is over’ posts citing the meto long range as evidence. As you say these are compiled based on the data at the time…and that data / model outputs are liable to change. On our tiny island we are vulnerable to small changes so it’s a difficult task …that’s what makes it so interesting ! 

Hi Tim, yup - absolutely. For those of us who accept the meteorological calendar as a mere statistical construct & instead pay attention to the astronomical version, winter '21-22 is in its mere infancy and where we've ended-up by March is intriguing - if currently imponderable - speculation. On face-value, so many pointers favour a colder outcome (broadly so, especially for parts of Europe but with UK periodically being in-play). However, to what extent that relies on outcome with the stratospheric polar vortex & the degree of offset (to otherwise cold historical analogues) from background climate warming is a learning curve we are now riding-on through the coming weeks!

[jamesthemonkeh]

4 hours ago, geordiekev said:

So bookies have paid out on Dublin, Manchester & Glasgow, still waiting on Leeds, seems to be only those cities in the pink & sleet discounted. So close on many other North of Birmingham ❄

Do we know about Sheffield?  I had Manchester too but bet still unsettled.

[sorepaw1]

Just for observational fun ,

Maybe another Hunt for cold coming up, 

Chins up Round 2 maybe.

I never normally post past T240.

It's Christmas and I need a bit of festive cheer. 

Enjoy rest of Christmas everyone 

Stay safe.

[Frosty.]

Merry Boxing Day… …anyway…Praise the lord the Gfs 6z op is not a completely mild crap fest.! …hallelujah.. try spelling that correctly when you’re pished!