Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM t72

 

that’s open to tweaking both ways.

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Who predicted a front loaded winter?

 

BFTP

Mea culpa, Fred, I must have misconstrued the term '2010 redux'? Happy New Year!

[SLEETY]

Is gfs showing the way forward at the end,with huge pattern change,with maybe Atlantic ridge joining forces with Arctic High ?maybe Europe will go extremely cold with  temps way below average as in parts of Canada currently

Edited January 1, 2022 by SLEETY

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Mea culpa, Fred, I must have misconstrued the term '2010 redux'? Happy New Year!

I didn’t see that, but the runs last month certainly indicated that possibility.  Have we got another model farce developing before us???

 

BFTP

[MattStoke]

24 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Can people stop mentioning about BBC.. 

Time will tell what happens but we need to see consistency and agreement in place from models..

relying on a BBC forecast or Met O forecast at this stage is pointless.

Especially as they just copy the ECM, which people still don’t seem to realise.

[Duane S.]

Control hinting towards that Scandi high option… ?

[minus10]

Call me naive but I find it incredible that one of the main models...the global forecasting system gfs is showing this at 72 hours

Yet it is fairly likely that it wont happen as there is not model agreement although some are moving towards it as i understand. 72 hours? 3 days and it is still incapable of predicting a reasonable understanding of what is going on. If this was 10 days or more yes as we all know ,,,bucket load of salt etc but 3 days? 

I know this type of scenario is extremely complex to forecast however within this timescale ....i suppose the higher resolution models are more suited...certainly interesting model watch for short term...

[Floatylight]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Call me naive but I find it incredible that one of the main models...the global forecasting system gfs is showing this at 72 hours

Yet it is fairly likely that it wont happen as there is not model agreement although some are moving towards it as i understand. 72 hours? 3 days and it is still incapable of predicting a reasonable understanding of what is going on. If this was 10 days or more yes as we all know ,,,bucket load of salt etc but 3 days? 

I know this type of scenario is extremely complex to forecast however within this timescale ....i suppose the higher resolution models are more suited...certainly interesting model watch for short term...

This was showing a week ago then got dropped.

Now come back again.

Which I find quite interesting. 

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Call me naive but I find it incredible that one of the main models...the global forecasting system gfs is showing this at 72 hours

Yet it is fairly likely that it wont happen as there is not model agreement although some are moving towards it as i understand. 72 hours? 3 days and it is still incapable of predicting a reasonable understanding of what is going on. If this was 10 days or more yes as we all know ,,,bucket load of salt etc but 3 days? 

I know this type of scenario is extremely complex to forecast however within this timescale ....i suppose the higher resolution models are more suited...certainly interesting model watch for short term...

Trouble is if it was the Autumn we wouldn't give a damn but because it's Winter ( loosely ) we scrutinize every frame of every run . Snow is so difficult to forecast in the UK in terms of where it falls or if it's sleet or just rain. But I do agree it's incredible at just 72 hours we are struggling with model agreement 

[Ali1977]

As a mean that is amazing 

[feb1991blizzard]

This is the most interesting chart, if somewhat out of the reliable, when people talk about split trop pv's, this is a genuine, unusual one.

[mountsbaysnow]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

As a mean that is amazing 

Arrrraaagh west Cornwall

.....WHY.......

Edited January 1, 2022 by mountsbaysnow

[chris55]

That is a little beauty of a feature from GFS, intense channel low wrapping in some cold Arctic air, a classic TBH

Lots of variables would need to come together just right for it to verify, depth of low is an important one, to weak and it’ll skirt south and not have the spin to undercut the cold air into the system. 
 

One to watch for sure

[NorthYorksWeather]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

As a mean that is amazing 

Thats the control run bud.

Whilst Im here il add NMM at 72 hours.

[Hotspur62]

56 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Who predicted a front loaded winter?

 

BFTP

Think from memory CC was talking about a front loaded winter and was a whisker from being correct until it went Pete tong around 20th December model wise

 

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Thats the control run bud.

Whilst Im here il add NMM at 72 hours.

Mean

[ANYWEATHER]

Better get the snow shovel out for Tuesday......

[Frostbite1980]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Better get the snow shovel out for Tuesday......

Is that the M4 i see?

[Jason M]

16 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Better get the snow shovel out for Tuesday......

After such a prolonged spell of summery temps I suspect that if these charts are correct (which they probably aren’t) there is very little chance of much settling snow. Probably would be one of those scenarios where the equivalent of 5 inches of snow falls but only deposits a thin slushy mess at best. 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2022 by Jason M

[Notty]

54 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Call me naive but I find it incredible that one of the main models...the global forecasting system gfs is showing this at 72 hours

Yet it is fairly likely that it wont happen as there is not model agreement although some are moving towards it as i understand. 72 hours? 3 days and it is still incapable of predicting a reasonable understanding of what is going on. If this was 10 days or more yes as we all know ,,,bucket load of salt etc but 3 days? 

I know this type of scenario is extremely complex to forecast however within this timescale ....i suppose the higher resolution models are more suited...certainly interesting model watch for short term...

As I recall, very recently all the other models were saying cold and GFS said no and then they all flipped 72 hours out. Will the GFS be right again this time …

[northwestsnow]

Apps again  not remotely interested from what I can see, and TBH they are probably more accurate than some of the models we see.

Still ,I'll watch and Hope the 12z's upgrade later ..

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Apps again  not remotely interested

I'll take that as a positive, then!

[Stu_London]

Away from the top elevations, I am not buying.

Whenever we have a marginal situation like this the models tease - a sleetfest at best for most.

[Updated_Weather]

On 01/01/2022 at 12:38, northwestsnow said:

Apps again  not remotely interested from what I can see, and TBH they are probably more accurate than some of the models we see.

Still ,I'll watch and Hope the 12z's upgrade later ..

Apps will never be interested until literally a few hours - day max! Although Met O and BBC both show sleet for me in Essex.. Never take it seriously.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Apps again  not remotely interested from what I can see, and TBH they are probably more accurate than some of the models we see.

Still ,I'll watch and Hope the 12z's upgrade later ..

XC Weather looks good