Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Gowon]

Not bad this morning. The ECM has finally moved towards the GFS at 72/96h with the high slightly further North which leads to a more amplified solution later on, so at least the cold possibilities has improved slightly now with the ECM less flat

[johncam]

So where do we go from here 

[Phil Blake]

26 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

oh dear guys,its quite worrying that ECM run was a cold outlier!

Trend setter. It's good to see the high res not as flat. Moving in the right direction

[frosty ground]

14 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

this mornings..how bad could it be!

Not sure because there is no chart attached to your post?

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure because there is no chart attached to your post?

I assume you mean this chart?

not exactly end of the word stuff is it?

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

I assume you mean this chart?

not exactly end of the word stuff is it?

Mean looks better than the Op, the Op gets heights going to early which move East. Hopefully the mean is more in keeping any heights further West.

[Staffmoorlands]

9 minutes ago, johncam said:

So where do we go from here 

Models continue to suggest a prolonged settled spell lasting until at least middle of January. 2nd half is still up for grabs

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yep it looked decent at that point,infact the whole run wasnt too bad..look for improvements coming days

I think the jet is too powerful and is causing a lot of our problems with heights 

[mulzy]

13 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

I think the jet is too powerful and is causing a lot of our problems with heights 

Indeed.  The northern arm remains strong into the medium term.  There is little chance of HLB at present with fragments of the PV lurking at the higher latitudes.  Wedges are our best bet, but we need a lot of luck for things to fall perfectly.

[Ali1977]

More precip coking on over island than forecast 

[sheikhy]

Cant believe am saying but it SEEMS like the gfs trumped the ecm in regards to stronger scandi heights at only day 3 and 4!!!the turnaround across scandi on the ecm when you compare todays 72 hour chart to yesterday mornings 96 hour chart is quite remarkable!!!can we get the high even further west?!!

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

More precip coking on over island than forecast 

And looks further north!!!!

[Ali1977]

Just now, sheikhy said:

And looks further north!!!!

Yeah hoping it stick on that trajectory, and doesn’t lose strength!!

[mountain shadow]

56 minutes ago, johncam said:

So where do we go from here 

No where fast. 

Still little chance of Northerly blocking before month end with the jet powering away as ever.

This is the search for cold thread though, so posting t+300 GFS charts showing bitter cold keeps us interested I suppose.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM at 192 hrs beginning to read the script,while GEFS ensembles continues it’s cold

theme from around 15th/16 th mean below average and some ensembles looking very cold.

Lets see if ECM can nudge it’s way towards GFS.

[Lukesluckybunch]

lets see if we can see better signs of blocking towards greenland or at least further north on the 6z..as has been the case for a few days now the cold is due to arrive after or around 16th17th!

[danthetan]

I think the HLB would be a tough ask moving forward but if we can get the trough to anchor over Scandinavia and drop into Europe we could get a cold pool going on the continant also any energy moving over the top of the high to the west would have more chance of pulling cold air in our direction as it dropped into Europe. 

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

So where do we go from here 

Down to the lake, I fear.

MLB perhaps. High pressure around about the UK, but not enough amplification to advect truly cold air in. Hopefully settled and dry though. Could be worse.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION SIR???

[Quantock]

8 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Down to the lake, I fear.

MLB perhaps. High pressure around about the UK, but not enough amplification to advect truly cold air in. Hopefully settled and dry though. Could be worse.

 

Aye aye aye aye aye aye...

Hopefully the cold air will arrive if the jet calms down - that looks like the key at the moment 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Yep, let’s do try keep this to the models please all. Thanks. Some of the posts, such as those discussing past Winters, belong more in the Winter Chat, Moans and Ramps thread really.

We would hate to have to also lock anyone up in our dark, gloomy, Netweather dungeon. (And trust me, you don’t want that as there’s not even any windows to see whether any snow is falling ) 

[Stu_London]

46 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

That was now 11 years ago; and when we have not had a winter that could reasonably be described as "cold" or at least bringing a significant cold spell to the UK since 2012-13, you have to think is it even possible to see a spell like Dec 2010, a winter like 2009-10 or even a winter like 2012-13 ever again.

Feb/March 2018 was more severe than anything that 2012-3 threw up (although I accept that March 2013 was pretty exceptional, probably not far off Dec 2010, in terms of being noteworthy) Also last year was colder than average and away from the south there were multiple snow events with perhaps 20+ days of snow lying in some areas. 

In terms of the current situation, I fully expected the GFS to run away from the cold theme in FI. I would say there is a 50% chance of it bringing it back in the next 2-3 days. Whether it then verifies is by no means certain, however one thing that I have noted is that there is far more cross model harmony in the period up to 96-120 hours than there was with the failed Christmas hunt for cold, which I think gives a better chance of day 7/8/9 charts being somewhere near verification than if this were not the case.

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Cant believe am saying but it SEEMS like the gfs trumped the ecm in regards to stronger scandi heights at only day 3 and 4!!!the turnaround across scandi on the ecm when you compare todays 72 hour chart to yesterday mornings 96 hour chart is quite remarkable!!!can we get the high even further west?!!

IMO always was.  Post below from 23/12.  I have somewhere that I mentioned a transitory Scandi HP in this period too.  Happy with the outcome and any removal of the cold is anticipated.

 

BFTP

 

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted December 23, 2021

Location: Redhill, Surrey

Ok let’s put in here.  Chance of transitory cold period Jan 4-10 then westerly dominance to prevail as per lrf rPM or PM air.  Major storm period end Jan into Feb….very newsworthy! ( be prepared)!  Feb will flip flop, Latter 3rd of Feb….bitterly cold NE flow.  Early March to continue cold

BFTP

Edited January 7, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Lukesluckybunch]

guys potentially somthing brilliant coming up here on the 6z after 216h!

[johnholmes]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

IMO always was.  Post below from 23/12.  I have somewhere that I mentioned a transitory Scandi HP in this period too.  Happy with the outcome and any removal of the cold is anticipated.

 

BFTP

 

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted December 23, 2021

Location: Redhill, Surrey

Ok let’s put in here.  Chance of transitory cold period Jan 4-10 then westerly dominance to prevail as per lrf rPM or PM air.  Major storm period end Jan into Feb….very newsworthy! ( be prepared)!  Feb will flip flop, Latter 3rd of Feb….bitterly cold NE flow.  Early March to continue cold

BFTP

well done but beware boasting about a success.