Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[offerman]

 Good Morning,

 Ok, so looking at the latest set of charts what happened to those armageden charts showing deep cold and snowfest N/E with entrenched LPs coming down.

 These were showing for a few days in a row but i was saying to some posters take with a pinch of salt due to being so far out and 9.5 /10 or more just get watered down to nothing.  Is so rare they verify even more so from that direction with such an enormous flood of cold and instability and expanse of Isobars. 
 

Watered down is what exactly has happened even still so far out with that 8 day time frame from the previous 10-15 original charts showing the snowfest. 
 

Again, it’s just better / more important to focus on the nearer 3 day out really to see more confident signs of what to expect.  Even in that short window things can and will change. 
 

wish everyone a nice weekend. ( was nice to see some snow falling here yesterday ( after the initial rain) large flakes . Relaxing to watch, hypnotising really, just love it. 
 

 

 

 

[Chesil View]

So Ecm at day 10 sniffing out the same green high scandi trough( pv lobe) pattern that gfs showed a couple of days back to start this latest chase.

Curiouser and curiouser

 

[That ECM]

19 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

so thats about as good as it gets this morning,a half decent looking day 10 chart from the ECM.back to square one in chasing long range charts......feels like it!

We have been chasing day 10 plus charts since Christmas. Still little continuity between them. We keep looking and hoping. Alternatively concentrate on charts upto T72 but I see little fun in that unless it’s trying to workout which areas will get snow.

Edited January 8, 2022 by That ECM

[weathercold]

Can’t say it’s a surprise to see such poor charts this morning. I’ve been highlighting this for days.

Appreciate in a thread titled hunting for cold it’s difficult at times to remain balanced, we’ve all been guilty of it. Sometimes experience and a gut feeling tell you whether or not a cold outcome is likely or not.

Whilst I appreciate this will be unpopular it’s also right to call it how I see it and not sensationalise needlessly.

The next 10 days (as far as we can realistically look) has little to no chance of any deep cold. Beyond that I still fail to see anything which offers a route to a freeze which many crave.

Nearly mid Jan not seen a single flake here just outside London. Jan cold prospects look very poor imo. Hard slog right now with the winter clock ticking away…we live in hope of something resembling winter into Feb - with no SSW realistic imo, we are clinging to hope more than anything right now.

All the best 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Paul
Sorry but enough of the bickering - comment on what the charts are showing by all means, and report the posts you think are out of line, but you need to stop commenting on what you perceive other people to be doing.

[offerman]

2 hours ago, weathercold said:

Can’t say it’s a surprise to see such poor charts this morning.

Appreciate in a thread titled hunting for cold it’s difficult at times to remain balanced, we’ve all been guilty of it. Sometimes experience and a gut feeling tell you whether or not a cold outcome is likely or not.

Whilst I appreciate this will be unpopular it’s also right to call it how I see it and not sensationalise needlessly.

The next 10 days (as far as we can realistically look) has little to no chance of any deep cold. Beyond that I still fail to see anything which offers a route to a freeze which many crave.

Nearly mid Jan not seen a single flake here just outside London. Jan cold prospects look very poor imo. Hard slog right now with the winter clock ticking away…we live in hope of something resembling winter into Feb - with no SSW realistic imo, we are clinging to hope more than anything right now.

All the best 

Absolutely bang on with that post. The charts just don’t favour and prog and consistency right now. 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Paul

[Bradowl]

2 hours ago, weathercold said:

Can’t say it’s a surprise to see such poor charts this morning.

Appreciate in a thread titled hunting for cold it’s difficult at times to remain balanced, we’ve all been guilty of it. Sometimes experience and a gut feeling tell you whether or not a cold outcome is likely or not.

Whilst I appreciate this will be unpopular it’s also right to call it how I see it and not sensationalise needlessly.

The next 10 days (as far as we can realistically look) has little to no chance of any deep cold. Beyond that I still fail to see anything which offers a route to a freeze which many crave.

Nearly mid Jan not seen a single flake here just outside London. Jan cold prospects look very poor imo. Hard slog right now with the winter clock ticking away…we live in hope of something resembling winter into Feb - with no SSW realistic imo, we are clinging to hope more than anything right now.

All the best 

I'll settle for yesterday's set up for remainder of winter, cold Westerly winds with frequent snow showers, I know it's little use to those in South East but it's great for us Yorkshire folks. 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Paul
Removed part of quoted post which has been edited out.

[That ECM]

15 minutes ago, weathercold said:

 

The next 10 days (as far as we can realistically look) has little to no chance of any deep cold. Beyond that I still fail to see anything which offers a route to a freeze which many crave.

You can only look realistically at the next ten days but you then go on to say you can’t see anything beyond that. So should we only look 10 days? Or is it ok to go beyond this? You imo are as guilty at guessing what may come later in the month as anyone plucking fi charts that show deep cold.  

 

I agree with your thoughts upto 10 days beyond that I will keep an open mind and see what comes. No deep freeze is the norm but that’s why we look, for not the norm.

 

[mulzy]

2 hours ago, weathercold said:

Can’t say it’s a surprise to see such poor charts this morning.

Appreciate in a thread titled hunting for cold it’s difficult at times to remain balanced, we’ve all been guilty of it. Sometimes experience and a gut feeling tell you whether or not a cold outcome is likely or not.

Whilst I appreciate this will be unpopular it’s also right to call it how I see it and not sensationalise needlessly.

The next 10 days (as far as we can realistically look) has little to no chance of any deep cold. Beyond that I still fail to see anything which offers a route to a freeze which many crave.

Nearly mid Jan not seen a single flake here just outside London. Jan cold prospects look very poor imo. Hard slog right now with the winter clock ticking away…we live in hope of something resembling winter into Feb - with no SSW realistic imo, we are clinging to hope more than anything right now.

All the best 

Possibly (your bolded statement) but what the models have started to pick up on is significant surface cold under the area of high pressure.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Paul
Removed part of the quoted post which was edited out in the original

[IDO]

Those GFS op signals for a more amplified flow were way in FI with little consistent support and this new GFS is notorious for trolling us with great charts. With no background noise for height rises they were always a long shot, much like the ghost MJO push. It looks like a humdrum mix for the next 16+ days with HP, westerly, maybe a cold backend low.

The GEFS mean suggests that the main tPV lobe crosses from the NW to NE then eases back in the upcoming period. With no strong tropical forcing the tPV is at ease to go with the flow of the NH:

D8-16 mean> 

Certainly, we are struggling with no SSW and no clean MJO signal and it may simply be a case where we have to wait for the tPV to wane, enabling the Azores & Pacific HP cells to be more influence as they were in late November. AT the moment the tPV is the boss.

[Ali1977]

Today’s Mogreps are much colder than yesterday’s !! A colder high I guess 

[weathercold]

11 minutes ago, That ECM said:

You can only look realistically at the next ten days but you then go on to say you can’t see anything beyond that. So should we only look 10 days? Or is it ok to go beyond this? You imo are as guilty at guessing what may come later in the month as anyone plucking fi charts that show deep cold.  

 

I agree with your thoughts upto 10 days beyond that I will keep an open mind and see what comes. No deep freeze is the norm but that’s why we look, for not the norm.

 

My point here is that despite some other posters promoting deeper cold possibilities I couldn’t really see where they were coming from. For sure much can change post 10 days (for better or worse - yes incredibly even for us folk down south it could be worse than what we’ve seen thus far).

I try to look at probabilities based on all available evidence and my thoughts were bashed simply because they don’t forecast what some are craving.

If we look back at the last few days (even with the odd positive gfs run) we’ve seen absolutely zero consistency across a NWP suite and with that models such as ECM have been barely interested in deeper cold possibilities.

Things may well change for the better, who knows - it’s all guesswork. My call is based on gut feel and the way things are playing out currently. 10 days is a safe call ish, takes us to the second half of Jan with zero deep cold prospects in sight. You’d be a brave person to call Jan a below average month from here let alone one with deep cold possibilities.

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by weathercold

[Lukesluckybunch]

54 minutes ago, That ECM said:

We have been chasing day 10 plus charts since Christmas. Still little continuity between them. We keep looking and hoping. Alternatively concentrate on charts upto T72 but I see little fun in that unless it’s trying to workout which areas will get snow.

Exactly I'm the same I always look for the nirvana charts..even if it's displaying at day 10 haha

[weathercold]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Exactly I'm the same I always look for the nirvana charts..even if it's displaying at day 10 haha

Life living in the UK sadly - we are all guilty of it. Chasing my first snowflake …

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The models imo are settling in the idea that there is no nirvana within next 10-14 days.  The idea of HP covering UK (particularly southern half) with LPs rolling over top north of or through Scotland then SE towards E Europe seems about right.  A pattern that’ll fix in for a while before we see the HP eventually backing west.  Hopefully we can get some cold nights under clear skies out of it.  Might get some winter golf out of this

 

BFTP

[Battleground Snow]

ECM day 11 would have been very cold for what it's worth and GFS ensembles are still generally cold around the 17th, which was the earliest we were expecting significant cold/snow anyway.

The told you so posts are really starting to grind this thread down, especially when something over 240 hours hasn't happened yet.

It's a very fluid situation still with the models trying to work out ridges  inbetween lobes at range

Edited January 8, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[That ECM]

26 minutes ago, weathercold said:

My point here is that despite some other posters promoting deeper cold possibilities I couldn’t really see where they were coming from. For sure much can change post 10 days (for better or worse - yes incredibly even for us folk down south it could be worse than what we’ve seen thus far).

I try to look at probabilities based on all available evidence and my thoughts were bashed simply because they don’t forecast what some are craving.

If we look back at the last few days (even with the odd positive gfs run) we’ve seen absolutely zero consistency across a NWP suite and with that models such as ECM have been barely interested in deeper cold possibilities.

Things may well change for the better, who knows - it’s all guesswork. My call is based on gut feel and the way things are playing out currently. 10 days is a safe call ish, takes us to the second half of Jan with zero deep cold prospects in sight. You’d be a brave person to call Jan a below average month from here let alone one with deep cold possibilities.

 

I rarely make forecasts I look for themes and continuity from the models. When there is little I try and keep an open mind. What cause more angst in here is people punting an outcome someone challenging it and then ego takes over.  People love calling one model better than another but after awhile you realise that they all get it right and wrong sometimes as one. 
 

There is a very good saying which applies to this imo. Anyone saying they can predict the future is a liar even when they are proved to be correct on occasions.

Edited January 8, 2022 by That ECM

[IDO]

12 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM day 11 would have been very cold for what it's worth and GFS ensembles are still generally cold around the 17th, which was the earliest we were expecting significant cold/snow anyway.

The told you so posts are really starting to grind this thread down, especially when something over 240 hours hasn't happened yet.

It's s very fluid situation still with the models trying to work out ridges  inbetween lobes at range

I think the 17-18th is when the low is modelled to bring us some colder air as it shifts east. ECM op and GEFS mean at D10:

It is being modelled as a transient feature and the variance of colder uppers is to be expected at this range. I do not think it is a game changer as it was modelled a few days ago, unless we get a backtrack from the output? I am sure we will get shots of cold during the rest of January, but those looking for a blocked wintry spell may have to be patient; the models are not consistent with that.

[frosty ground]

2 hours ago, weathercold said:

Can’t say it’s a surprise to see such poor charts this morning.

Appreciate in a thread titled hunting for cold it’s difficult at times to remain balanced, we’ve all been guilty of it. Sometimes experience and a gut feeling tell you whether or not a cold outcome is likely or not.

Whilst I appreciate this will be unpopular it’s also right to call it how I see it and not sensationalise needlessly.

The next 10 days (as far as we can realistically look) has little to no chance of any deep cold. Beyond that I still fail to see anything which offers a route to a freeze which many crave.

Nearly mid Jan not seen a single flake here just outside London. Jan cold prospects look very poor imo. Hard slog right now with the winter clock ticking away…we live in hope of something resembling winter into Feb - with no SSW realistic imo, we are clinging to hope more than anything right now.

All the best 

I’ve also seen people say there is no sign of cold in the models which wasn’t true, I’ve then seen that goal post moved to the realistic time frame which was true, but on the other hand I’m struggling finding 10 days of mild weather which was promised and yet to be delivered.

the next ten days look average at best turning more frosty as time passes with the exception of today and it looks like the GFS picked the right horse as other models are now following its lead 

 

the potential cold snap between the 16th and 20th is still in the ensembles so we have to ask do you actually look at the charts before commenting on them? 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Paul
Removed the part of the quoted post which has now been edited out. Also, removed your response to it - the bickering style stuff is really unneeded - please just comment on the models.

[Penrith Snow]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

Those GFS op signals for a more amplified flow were way in FI with little consistent support and this new GFS is notorious for trolling us with great charts. With no background noise for height rises they were always a long shot, much like the ghost MJO push. It looks like a humdrum mix for the next 16+ days with HP, westerly, maybe a cold backend low.

The GEFS mean suggests that the main tPV lobe crosses from the NW to NE then eases back in the upcoming period. With no strong tropical forcing the tPV is at ease to go with the flow of the NH:

D8-16 mean> 

Certainly, we are struggling with no SSW and no clean MJO signal and it may simply be a case where we have to wait for the tPV to wane, enabling the Azores & Pacific HP cells to be more influence as they were in late November. AT the moment the tPV is the boss.

That 10 day+ mean is a shocker with the PV slowly draining from Russia back to Canada, it can spell only one thing a return to westerlies late January after a period of high pressure.

So disappointing but you can see from this where the MetO are getting their MRF from.

It's going to be a long month.

Andy

[chris55]

GFS op on the mild side from day 8, some much colder runs in the pack

ECM not without interest going into days 8-10

Nothing to get to excited about but at least something to focus on cold wise as we go forward. 

[Ali1977]

Cold surface temps later next week, these are max temps freezing fog 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cold surface temps later next week, these are max temps freezing fog 

This has been on the cards for a few days especially with the GFS output, for people that can read charts that is.

to be fair the ECM has been dragged to the same conclusion only recently.

once the mild 10 days was a bust the next target was cold then super duper cold.

[TEITS]

Just a quickie from me.

Anyone making any prediction right now for the medium range is foolish in my opinion. The differences between the 12Z & 0Z ECM are stark especially when viewing from the N Hemisphere charts. I know some will disagree but when you have such differences in the operationals I tend to pay little attention to the ensembles. I realise I am going against the whole purpose of the ensembles but that is my experience. Posting ensemble means like the GEFS is even more pointless.

So I remain open minded to many possibilities. Many more weeks of winter left yet.

[Staffmoorlands]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cold surface temps later next week, these are max temps freezing fog 

Those temps are way lower than what the ECM are showing. 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Those temps are way lower than what the ECM are showing. 

Can you show us?