Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ECM 00z at 144 vs 12z at 144 below. I’d say it’s defo a step towards the GFS but I can’t see it being a deep cold run. Room for improvement though hopefully.

Big diffference with energy towards the Azores on this run… from ecm which i hope will hope on the next frame

[Ali1977]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

No, it has missed the chance to get WAA up the west side of Greenland, which is so important to get anything to stick there.  

I wonder if the American METO have discounted their Op run!! It was always a long shot, but at day six there is chance of a middle ground, which may still be good 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

think it will sink sadly

Not sure.. energy towards Azores and to our direct south might help at 168

[Ali1977]

Very close to great, and some lower heights to the south stopping sinking so quickly - will be v cold regardless at the surface - even looks a little “slider” like moving forward 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Ali1977

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Very close to great, and some lower heights to the south stopping sinking so quickly - will be v cold regardless at the surface - even looks a little “slider” like moving forward 

Looks primed.... to sink.

[TSNWK]

Still climbing at 168 just all a little too Far East for the deep cold.. but that energy towards Azores and to our south is something new and it helped provide a decent 168

[Kasim Awan]

Southwesterlies at 192h but where did the vortex go?

[That ECM]

You’ve got to give the high 10 out of 10 for trying but the jet keeps winning and knocking it back down. soooooooooo frustrating but hey ho. 

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Still climbing at 168 just all a little too Far East for the deep cold.. but that energy towards Azores and to our south is something new and it helped provide a decent 168

Over to the ENS, if that GFS is anywhere close to being right then this ECM really needs to be a mild outlier !! The Clusters will be more telling though. 
If the METO Aren’t mentioning it (yet) you’d have to say the GFS is probably unlikely as most on here will know!! 

[Kasim Awan]

Ecm 216h may produce some wintry showers over the Ben Nevis mountain range.

[stewfox]

I don't often post in model output discussion because after 15 years my knowledge is some what thin.

I have learnt we need blue/mauve over us and yellow orange etc to go away if you want cold and snow

18 Jan looking promising, supporting chart attached

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

im happy with this ECM looks cold throughout,and i still think theres time for upgrade in terms of that high going north toward greenland at 168,i think this will be a outlier for mild.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
change word

[blizzard81]

Ecm is being a right old party pooper again tonight and in its desperation to be so looks an absolute dogs dinner to my eyes. It looks all over the place. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by blizzard81

[Staffmoorlands]

ECM in line with todays update from the Met Office. Mainly settled and cold with a return to unsettled and milder weather by day 10.

[blizzard81]

We need to see some improvements in the ecm ens from day 7. If that happens this evening I for one will be happy with the general 12z trends. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

still plenty of time for the ECM to look like gfs,we just need that low to be pulled back slightly west around newfoundland then we are in the game.

[TSNWK]

On the whole a pleasing set of 12z with the pendulum taking a decent swing towards cold holistically across the models up 168.. gfs and gem then light the touch paper with a decent 3 day cold blast followed by stangnent cold… ecm improved up to 168 and went a bit naff for coldies…

could be a lot worse need to keep gfs and gem and ecm improve by same margin overnight is how I call it..

Edited January 10, 2022 by TSNWK

[blizzard81]

As I've already stated the ecm op screams.... I don't have a clue! Its just a mess. It makes Boris Johnson's barnet look a fraction neat. Day 10 attached. To be honest, we could be in a much worse position than this chart but I think we should be in a much better place come day 10. Atlantic is still slack even on this weird run and just look at that cold block to the east. Impressive. 

[phil nw.]

I notice ecm finds more ridging as soon as t144 compared to yesterday's 12z for the same date.

this small improvement looks even better 24hrs on.Again we see the differences in modeling the pv.

[Anthony Burden]

ECM going in a totaly different direction tonight collapsing the high pressure at 8 to 9days out yet 168 hrs

high pressure showing strongly to the northwest.Looks odd to me,we of course will see if correct or not 

but find it unusual to see high pressure collapsing so quickly.possible outlier.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

As I've already stated the ecm op screams.... I don't have a clue! Its just a mess. It makes Boris Johnson's barnet look a fraction neat. Day 10 attached. To be honest, we could be in a much worse position than this chart but I think we should be in a much better place come day 10. Atlantic is still slack even on this weird run and just look at that cold block to the east. Impressive. 

I wonder what surface temps would be under that area of slack low pressure with uppers around -4 would not be an inversion cold but slack low pressure is cold at surface as well I think?

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

I notice ecm finds more ridging as soon as t144 compared to yesterday's 12z for the same date.

this small improvement looks even better 24hrs on.Again we see the differences in modeling the pv.

Indeed. Also, lets compare the 192hr chart from Saturdays run to the 144hr chart you posted above from today's run. Unbelievable difference. The trend is most definitely our friend at the moment. 

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I wonder what surface temps would be under that area of slack low pressure with uppers around -4 would not be an inversion cold but slack low pressure is cold at surface as well I think?

It would certainly feel cold and seasonal. 

[Cambrian]

Besides the slightly greater amplification towards Greenland, the 12z ECM op at 168h has good agreement with the 12z GFS ensemble mean, and indeed quite strikingly regarding the central placement of the high pressure heights close to Ireland and at around 1030mb, and also the shape, extent and 980mb depth of the trough heading down into central and Eastern Europe. The overall hemispheric configuration of the PV is similar enough too.
ECM op / GFS mean

 

So the ECM op and the middle of the GFS envelope pretty much in the same place and that is a slightly better place than where we were yesterday for prospects of getting some proper cold air down from the north. Still 7 days away with broad spreads across the models so plenty of time for further movement. It will be interesting to see if this is correct and a consensus for a near miss, or part of a longer trend towards a proper cold snap in a week’s time.

[Staffmoorlands]

15 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

ECM going in a totaly different direction tonight collapsing the high pressure at 8 to 9days out yet 168 hrs

high pressure showing strongly to the northwest.Looks odd to me,we of course will see if correct or not 

but find it unusual to see high pressure collapsing so quickly.possible outlier.

The ECM has support from the UKMO. The GFS will be all change by 18z as usual in these circumstances 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The ECM has support from the UKMO. The GFS will be all change by 18z as usual in these circumstances 

Probably not by 18z but say by Wednesday 12z.