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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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DavidS Aficionado

DavidS

Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
Posted

The 6z GFS Op is a thing of beauty, but it sure is a complicated dance with the low pressure in the Atlantic alternating between cut off and not cut off.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

We have been here before in the past with this trigger. The high pushing through the trough to the west into higher latitude. 

72647361_gfseu-0-96(1).thumb.png.ee7c9345c355f0461bcb5ce65c42eeae.png

It is a feasible option so impossible to rule out. Just surprised we have not seen it in previous runs, as this suddenly appearing in the more reliable is a surprise! It is a tough one to verify but nice to see.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, IDO said:

We have been here before in the past with this trigger. The high pushing through the trough to the west into higher latitude. 

72647361_gfseu-0-96(1).thumb.png.ee7c9345c355f0461bcb5ce65c42eeae.png

It is a feasible option so impossible to rule out. Just surprised we have not seen it in previous runs, as this suddenly appearing in the more reliable is a surprise! It is a tough one to verify but nice to see.

Thank you., but maybe just for once we get something like this in the reliable pop up around 96 to 108 which is the tipping point for rest of the this fir run on the season…

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

This is just not going to happen in 6 days.

It just isn't.

I’m hunting for cold charts. found one.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

This is just not going to happen in 6 days.

It just isn't.

Then why is model chucking out…. And the trigger has popped up around day 4…. 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Day 5 mean, huge improvement with more than half similar to the Op. whether the ens have the longevity of cold we’ll have to wait another 30 mins. Could be interesting

1A0045A1-37F5-4AC1-894A-5E332A37960A.png

E03BE26F-EED4-4CA4-9364-FD4B0A162401.png

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weathercold Aficionado

weathercold

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
Posted

I’ll be honest here, I’m utterly speechless.

If it can go wrong - it will- life as a UK coldie.

Everything falls just right on the 06z…the storm off the east coast US plays ball (for us), we need a lot to go right. BUT if this does come to fruition it’s a genuine WTF moment. Models eh…

 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted
1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

6z is amazing for next week. Freezing cold winds, snow and blizzards. Bank! 

I’m sure you wrote off January

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Then why is model chucking out…. And the trigger has popped up around day 4…. 

It's the GFS!

If the ECM and UKMO shows this on the 12z, it would be the biggest turn around in Netweather history.

 

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted

The fact this is only 6 days away should raise some eyebrows, it can’t be binned. It’s possible. 
wait to see what the ensembles say - interesting 12z & ECM later.

 

On 11/01/2022 at 10:44, mountain shadow said:

It's the GFS!

If the ECM and UKMO shows this on the 12z, it would be the biggest turn around in Netweather history.

 

Possible. Can happen.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted

This is the 6 day mean, not a cherry picked Perb

B9CC0D1F-1AA9-4EFC-BB71-F22F41306F9B.png

48E39ECC-6095-4903-81B8-28D166285457.png

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

The fact this is only 6 days away should raise some eyebrows, it can’t be binned. It’s possible. 
wait to see what the ensembles say - interesting 12z & ECM later.

 

Possible. Can happen.

All the teleconnections would be wrong if it occurred. 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.40a3509542c2af1f77ca9569fd116ffd.png
 

what will follow this?  A northerly from the top of the world…that’s what.  Got to say I didn’t expect 06z to do that so early as 6 days!  I hope it confounds us all, but it is the 06z

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

Control wants to come to the party. we don’t need a hundred only 31. Bring your own booze.

CE724BEE-0E84-420F-B5CF-AD4D75EDD90B.png

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