Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Ali1977]

Right here we are, some day 6 ENS (semi reliable ) . There are others also good !! The “spaghetti “ will be amazing for the 06z!! 
I think you’ll agree, the Op is supported. 

[TEITS]

I love it when we see these changes within the reliable timeframe. This is what makes following the models such great fun. The thrill of the chase is sometimes just as enjoyable as the actual weather itself.

No idea if the 06Z is correct because as I said a few days ago we have seen some poor consistency from all models.

[andy989]

Its great to see this at day 6 not day 10 BUT, we should wait for multi run, multi model, multi day consistency before walking through the gate of the garden path. I do hope its a genuine flip, the genuine flips do tend to happen at short notice. 

[TSNWK]

06z gives us a week long freeze up from top to bottom for at least a week starting in 6 days.   

What could possibly go wrong

But if the models create it then it has to be an option and the branch and trigger is underway at 4 days.  The rest that follows is completely logical .

[That ECM]

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Right here we are, some day 6 ENS (semi reliable ) . There are others also good !! The “spaghetti “ will be amazing for the 06z!! 
I think you’ll agree, the Op is supported. 

Nice.. looking at those the 06z is not an outlier at day 6 in the cold group but I would not be surprised to see a few lines below the op

[SqueakheartLW]

What suddenly happened to the GFS on the 06z.

Rest of month looked written off as a bore fest under HP on the 00z.

Then this happens.

A mean 850hpa temp of -7.3C on the 06z vs a tame -3.4C on the 00z

Whatever you do GFS, don't suddenly flip back again.

[Ali1977]

Ice days from Tue for most . No point looking at snow, I’m sure there would be snow events within that run that aren’t modelled. If this is still there on the 12z it will make up for my ski holiday to France just being cancelled on Sunday - a little anyway

[minus10]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is the 6 day mean, not a cherry picked Perb

Have to say that is a pretty amazing mean just 6 days out. Wtf , this morning was all doom and gloom ...was not expecting this. Surely there must be some sudden change in signals the model is seeing or is it purely a gfs thing.... must be raising a few eyebrows!!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Great mean especially knowing both the Op and control are way colder with -12c uppers at day 6

[SqueakheartLW]

Op just had to be a cold outlier

Was kind of expected with the way it went.

Maybe Op is the new trend setter here.

[That ECM]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Op just had to be a cold outlier

Was kind of expected with the way it went.

Maybe Op is the new trend setter here.

It’s not. Maybe not correct but not an outlier.

[Froze were the Days]

£500 of my money says 06z run is a cold outlier...we always seem to get the odd OTT run like this! we can fantasise over these type runs as a few liked to quote yesterday...ECM nothing like this.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Op just had to be a cold outlier

Was kind of expected with the way it went.

Maybe Op is the new trend setter here.

It’s not an outlier, there are 8 ENS colder

Without the EC , MOGREPS or ULMO support you’d have to think this will be downgraded vastly on the 12z but we shall see!! Maybe the 06z has new data 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

£500 of my money says 06z run is a cold outlier...we always seem to get the odd OTT run like this! we can fantasise over these type runs as a few liked to quote yesterday...ECM nothing like this.

You would have just lost 500 pounds then,

JMA pops out the low like the icon for what it's worth

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

£500 of my money says 06z run is a cold outlier...we always seem to get the odd OTT run like this! we can fantasise over these type runs as a few liked to quote yesterday...ECM nothing like this.

6z gfs latest run may be showing new data that has not yet been inprinted in the ecm. Need to see how the 12z handle it now . Very big changes early on the 6z. Fascinating stuff. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

All the teleconnections would be wrong if it occurred. 

Errr! All the teleconnections were pointing to a colder winter...E QBO for instance...last time we had a mild winter with all of these favourable signals were in the 50s!

And I must say with me being a betting man that to all of those who keep saying it won't happen because we have know luck....well there's no such thing as continuous bad luck...we have good runs and bad runs...thats the way it always goes!

The gfs serves a treat from day 6....does this look far fetched?? Well if it was day 10 I would say definitely yes..but day 6 with ensemble and mean support! I would say it looks plausible...are we looking at a 2019 event here when all models went for significant cold and snow before the icon backed off,then all others followed! But this time the flip is the other way around! 

Could be an interesting days folks.

 

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

£500 of my money says 06z run is a cold outlier...we always seem to get the odd OTT run like this! we can fantasise over these type runs as a few liked to quote yesterday...ECM nothing like this.

 

[TSNWK]

Key is the changes are very early at day 4.  So with range of ukm 96 and 120 thus afternoon which should be rated highly in my book.   

[sheikhy]

The op IS NOT AN OUTLIER just to make it clear!!there are even colder ensembles than the op!!im still saying the gfs is very wrong!!!such a shame i have to say that especially when its showing a cold spell to start at just 5 days away!!really does speak volumes about the lack of trust i have in the gfs and the model itself!!really at just 5 days out i should be having all the confidence in the gfs but its just not a good model in general!!shame really but we gota make do with what we got!!

[Froze were the Days]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

You would have just lost 500 pounds then,

JMA pops out the low like the icon for what it's worth

Well it is towards the backend of the run...anyway these individual runs mean nothing, 12z will change from this particularly in the medium term and then you'll get the ensembles backing it up or close to the mean. I never for some reason trust the 06 or 18z (no surprise there) over the 0z or 12z runs for any form of verification...

I wish there were only 2 GFS runs a day.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Froze were the Days

[Cuban Zebra]

I lot of us have been saying for a while that there is a huge amount of bottled up cold, it doesn’t take much to release it in our direction as per the 6z, it may all flip back on the 12z but it makes it more interesting than the 21 days of anti cyclonic dirge we were seeing yesterday! 
 

Also, I’d like to understand the drivers that continuously shove the vortex back over Canada despite it being pushed, pulled and split apart.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Cuban Zebra

[Trom]

Interesting to see such agreement at 168hrs across the suite.

Op has support from control and large proportion of ensembles.

Ensemble mean:

 

Standard deviation in the ensembles:

So across the ensemble members we have the most variability to our North West and relatively little to our East.

It will be interesting to see if it garners any support from other models on the 12Z or even itself in later runs.

[Froze were the Days]

35 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

This is just not going to happen in 6 days.

It just isn't.

Totally agree...okay saying it was an outlier might have been a bit too head strong but I've seen this before from the GFS not giving up on an idea until closer to the time until it switches with it's tail between it's legs! A passing glimpse of the Am shot into Europe is the form horse and thereafter who knows but the Euros not leading any sustained cold at all. 

[ICE COLD]

BLOODY NORA !!!! Looked at the output  this morning and logged off and pressed close netweather browser . Let’s just check the 6z run and it’s unbelievable. Quickly log back in and BOOM ( not FI either) just saying and with support

Edited January 11, 2022 by ICE COLD