Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Had Worse]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I’d booom this if I had any faith, I mean this is only day 6!! It won’t take a lot to give me a boom

Now if the tonight's ECM throws that option in, that would raise an eyebrow.

[northwestsnow]

Looks cold...144

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

High further NW on 12z vs 06z and the low is also further west as well. Maybe more of a direct hit but will we see P11's insanely cold uppers on the op?

Yes, this *SHOULD* be a stonker, doesn't look like any shortwave is going to cut of the flow, cold be more than a toppler on this run, or could even topple into an Easterly, 5 day potent cold spell.

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m hoping this is a decent upgrade for a northerly - we aren’t in FI here but I’ll wait to see where it goes before getting carried away!! Heights doing very well here ️️️

yep ali weve made it here on the 12z!..strong heights west side of greenland

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’d booom this if I had any faith, I mean this is only day 6!! It won’t take a lot to give me a boom

It's an LOL from me.

GFS up to its old tricks.

[Kasim Awan]

Gfs is very likely to be wrong here however it would be foolish to say no chance as it wouldn't take much adjustment.

[Ali1977]

WOW, snow lovers would pay money for this. Please have support from the ENS and ECM  No METO mention, so caution very much needed 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Ali1977

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Gfs is very likely to be wrong here however it would be foolish to say no chance as it wouldn't take much adjustment.

Hello.. why do you think linkely to be wrong? It all started to look good from around 132 and what follows up to 168 as we stand presently is what you would expect.. so I guess I’m saying why no confidence in a 132 gfs chart?

[Ice Day]

I really do like this run, but it's not to be taken too seriously at this point.  Surely a cold outlier at 180?

 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Hello.. why do you think linkely to be wrong? It all started to look good from around 132 and what follows up to 168 as we stand presently is what you would expect.. so I guess I’m saying why no confidence in a 132 gfs chart?

Ukmo & Icon have been performing better recently, and don't have anywhere near as much amplification as the gfs does.

[BelgianBlizzard]

Pub run is early today

[Gowon]

Please be true, GFS

[Nick F]

Surely with our luck 12z GFS northerly early next week won't come off and will end up like 12z ICON - further east.

[Mike Poole]

Great run so far from the GFS 12z.  Here at T144, there is a good split of the vortex, leaving just enough on the Canadian side to fuel WAA west of Greenland.  Leads to a decent and cold northerly at T180.  Good to see this in the mix.

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello.. why do you think linkely to be wrong? It all started to look good from around 132 and what follows up to 168 as we stand presently is what you would expect.. so I guess I’m saying why no confidence in a 132 gfs chart?

Let's see if there's less scatter in the ensembles before that when they come.

[Ali1977]

Just now, D.V.R said:

Please be true, GFS

I imagine it will be a cold outlier (surely will be) but there is some room for it still to be very cold even with a downgrade I think.

[ICE COLD]

Ahhhh the pretty purple colors making an entrance  

Edited January 10, 2022 by ICE COLD

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Surely with our luck 12z GFS northerly early next week won't come off and will end up like 12z ICON - further east.

Icon has far better dealing of short wave spoiler lows it has nailed every single North Atlantic storm since 2015. So will likely have the more accurate projection here.

[Staffmoorlands]

Says it all about the GFS model when we can't trust its output at day 6!  Hopefully, this time it can be correct

 

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I imagine it will be a cold outlier (surely will be) but there is some room for it still to be very cold even with a downgrade I think.

I don't think it will be an outlier, but will have a small clutch of ensembles with it, 

17th has been showing cold options for a while

Edited January 10, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[northwestsnow]

So GFS wants to bring an ice age Northerly ..

Well, one could laugh but at day 7 the building blocks are there ,and TBH GFS has been sniffing a Northerly for a while ..

As ever the ens will reveal more,perhaps...

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Says it all about the GFS model when we can't trust its output at day 6!  Hopefully, this time it can be correct

 

Agreed, now and again GFS gets it right ..

I'll hope its one of those occasions!

[Ali1977]

Mean rolling out, but to me T108 looks like an improvement around heights into Greenland 

[legritter]

I shall be sat behind the sofa tonigjt for the ECM  ,Dog as well . 

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I imagine it will be a cold outlier (surely will be) but there is some room for it still to be very cold even with a downgrade I think.

I agree. If we still end up cold, I'd rather it snow rather than just cold weather though.

Edited January 10, 2022 by D.V.R
typo

[phil nw.]

While the northerly is an outside chance we can't dismiss this run.

Modeling of the profile over the pole is always tricky but with vortex segmented as it is any gaps can be exploited by the Atlantic ridging.

It will need a few runs yet for agreement on that.It certainly won't take much more buckling of the jet as there is some deep cold lurking just to the north.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Paul
Hi Phil, haven't edited your post but just wanted to check the notifications are working ok for me on this thread.