Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[snowray]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Has icon finally gone further north?!

Nope. Incredibly consistent ICON this Winter, could it be right again?

 

[sheikhy]

Forget it just checked it!!the icon is even further south and less deep on the 06z compared to the 00z!!absolutely incredible!! what is goin on!!!we only 48 hours away!!

Good timing snowray☝❤

Edited February 16, 2022 by sheikhy

[sheikhy]

10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Nope. Incredibly consistent ICON this Winter, could it be right again?

 

When you look at the unreal strength of the winds that are forecasted you would think the big models are wrong hopefully!!i got a run on friday as well!!running against the winds is so difficult!!

[John in the frozen north]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Nope. Incredibly consistent ICON this Winter, could it be right again?

 

So are models ever "right or wrong"? The models just try to predict the most likely way that the weather will develop (as that is not decided in advance!) so you could have a model that does not do very well at predicting the most likely scenario but looks like they got it "right" because the most likely scenario did not happen. Just a morning thought. 

[bluearmy]

Latest fax is closer to ecm than Ukmo with slp less deep at 973 midday Friday 

regarding warnings - with the strongest winds coming through during the day and likely to affect heavily built up areas, a red warning is very possible come Thursday pm  when they have a strong handle on track and deepening …..

Edited February 16, 2022 by bluearmy

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Latest fax is closer to ecm than Ukmo with slp less deep at 973 midday Friday 

regarding warnings - with the strongest winds coming through during the day and likely to affect heavily built up areas, a red warning is very possible come Thursday pm  when they have a strong handle on track and deepening …..

Any thoughts on icon?!!

[snowray]

Let’s see what the GFS turns up I guess.

ICON has indeed gone further South, snow showing from around Manchester south towards the M4/M3.

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by snowray

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,Fax charts shows Eunice at 48 hrs just south of Southern Ireland tracking in a northeast direction into the North Sea bringing in 528 dam line across all parts behind it.GEFS snow row for London for a couple of days between 6 and 10  so a short shot perhaps of the white stuff still on the cards along with damaging winds.Difference in the track of Eunice from the charts still continues,could go down to the wire great watching.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Let’s see what the GFS turns up I guess.

ICON has indeed gone further South, snow showing from around Manchester south towards the M4/M3.

 

Expect a METO upgrade asap if there's confidence in that 

[tight isobar]

Icon ( one of winters top performers) has the developing  LP going South someway this morning! As AGAIN tomorrow's outs are the crucial ones!

Edited February 16, 2022 by tight isobar

[sheikhy]

Gfs further south by a bit and slightly less deep at 48 hours!!

[tight isobar]

Snow chances spiking further south also now via ens.. the circulation needs a keen eye ?, as where it snows... it snows  properly -@Blizzard conditions for sure !

Edited February 16, 2022 by tight isobar

[Turnedoutniceagain]

METO onboard for Friday - Snow and AMBER wind warnings out

Edited February 16, 2022 by Turnedoutniceagain

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

METO onboard for Friday - Snow and AMBER wind warnings out

It was always to be @ amber.. likely into red by tonight/ tomorrow! And I’d also expect a different looking chart “ in geographical terms “ at precipitation type, as we draw closer in where and exactions still up 4 grabs!

[FENDER.]

17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Snow chances spiking further south also now via ens.. the circulation needs a keen eye ?, as where it snows... it snows  properly -@Blizzard conditions for sure !

Max temps in the Midlands forecast to reach 10c on Friday.  Can't see much snow away from perhaps the highest ground.  .Buxton Flash ect

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, FENDER. said:

Max temps in the Midlands forecast to reach 10c on Friday.  Can't see much snow away from perhaps the highest ground.  .Buxton Flash ect

The system has yet to develop @ modeling in real time.. take those prediced temps with a huge pinch of salt atm!.. the makeway And landfall in placement will make HUGE differences.. the draw of pm > polar air are fine margins in these set ups.. nowhere near a done deal in this regard ..atm..!

[tight isobar]

The ens @ Friday 19 snapped.. are becoming quite telling @ drop and spike..!

[Duane S.]

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a storm with potential for so much damage in the south. This looks particularly nasty.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Denmark / the Low Countries making the headlines though.

[MattStoke]

Got my eye on a swathe of particularly strong north west winds on the backside of Friday’s system. A few of the models have 80mph+ winds right across the North Midlands from that on Friday afternoon after the initial swathe of more widespread strong winds crosses the country. That could be particularly troublesome here.
 

Am I right in thinking that’s where a sting jet would be possible?

Edited February 16, 2022 by MattStoke

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational, for sure there could be a sting / sting jet…  in the tail of this abysmal winter!…hopefully not a stingray though!…they can bee  deadly..as Steve Irwin tragically found out!     

Edited February 16, 2022 by jon snow

[CoxR]

ICON has finally caved by the looks of it

[Adam lufc]

Another opportunity missed

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, CoxR said:

ICON has finally caved by the looks of it

Yes, here T51 v 6z T57, don’t know what took it so long, it has looked well out of kilter with all the other model for days.

The focus is now on refining the track of the storm.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Snowy L]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, here T51 v 6z T57, don’t know what took it so long, it has looked well out of kilter with all the other model for days.

The focus is now on refining the track of the storm.

That still looks much better than the GFS wouldn't that be snow for North Midlands?

[Mariescb]

14 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

Another opportunity missed

Sorry, missed what exactly?