Storm Eunice - 18th February

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, Sainsbo said:

Every 5-10 years might even be underselling it a little bit. For many this is likely to be the worst storm since Burns' Day 1990.

Might well be the case in the end, I'd just perfer not to over ramp it until we are closer to the time, it would take a relatively small adjustment in terms of formational delay to take those 80mph down to 65-70mph. Still bad of course, but not quite as noteworthy.

Just for reference here is the gusts from the Burns day storm, noting they are in knots, not mph:

Many 75-85kts in there, roughly gusting anywhere from 85-95mph. As can be seen on the models for our system, we aren't quite at those sorts of levels apart from maybe very exposed SW/Wales locations, but regardless its going to be a pretty rare event and perfectly warrants large attention.

Synoptically they aren't too different though, other than a deeper low for the 1990 system, and it serves as a good possible baseline to watch.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, andy989 said:

BBC news now reporting 100mph for wales with the possibility of a red warning. Headlines say stay indoors. 

Storm Eunice: Stay indoors warning ahead of 100mph winds

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Storm Eunice could bring power cuts and a "very rare" red warning, according to forecasters.

 

This will be Red. No question. 

Most powerful storm for decades, perhaps since the 1987 storm and during daylight hours, is a recipe for chaos.

[Skullzrulerz]

So, been seeing about this storm and looking at it briefly there's definitely some concern but I wouldn't go and say it's one of the worst storms.

Most likely downgrade before hand so not worried at the moment.

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's not even that down here, just a small breeze.

Didn't realise it's only just starting.

[Ice Day]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

I've followed the models on the internet day in day out for 20 years.

For inland areas to the south and east of Birmingham, this is the worst wind forecast I've seen on the models inside of T72.

I was just going to post something similar. In the Internet era, I'm struggling to remember something projected to be as severe, just 36 hours out. Maybe the St Jude Day storm, but I don't think so?

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's not even that down here, just a small breeze.

In all fairness the winds are only just starting to pick up, though its going to be nothing too out of the ordinary down here, classic windy winters night coming up.

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

I can see your point re it deserving more coverage but I think it's the South east bias on here and often on the news coverage of storms that irritates some people. I'm pretty sure most northern members on here would agree that if Eunice was forecast to hit north of Manchester then it would definitely not have 25 + pages. I wasn't on here in 2011/12 but there were two storms of similar strength to Eunice which mostly affected the north of England, NI and Scotland. I'd hazard a guess that those got nowhere near as much attention on here.

They did, it hit the south harder than you think, I had flickering light down in Dover for one of those. I'm quite sure those threads would have been busy. I was in regionals for that though. 

[ModestMention]

5 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

I can see your point re it deserving more coverage but I think it's the South east bias on here and often on the news coverage of storms that irritates some people. I'm pretty sure most northern members on here would agree that if Eunice was forecast to hit north of Manchester then it would definitely not have 25 + pages. I wasn't on here in 2011/12 but there were two storms of similar strength to Eunice which mostly affected the north of England, NI and Scotland. I'd hazard a guess that those got nowhere near as much attention on here.

Isn't this a community forum?

Surely it's up to it members what they discuss and which threads are more popular, If they want to discuss Eunice more then then will.

Or am I missing something?

There is a Dudley thread so Dudley can be discussed there.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

I can see your point re it deserving more coverage but I think it's the South east bias on here and often on the news coverage of storms that irritates some people. I'm pretty sure most northern members on here would agree that if Eunice was forecast to hit north of Manchester then it would definitely not have 25 + pages. I wasn't on here in 2011/12 but there were two storms of similar strength to Eunice which mostly affected the north of England, NI and Scotland. I'd hazard a guess that those got nowhere near as much attention on here.

I think like anything its when something really out of the ordinary that we get the bigger threads in these forums.

A 80-90mph storm, whilst no doubt still capable of causing big problems for Scotland, isn't really that unusual and perhaps wrongly is somewhat taken for granted as you'd probably expect 1-2 of those types of systems each winter, especially in more active years.

A storm of similar strength in the south is RARE and therefore is totally out of the ordinary and seen as extreme so it will garner alot more attention.

The fact its going to get a red alert down here in all likelyhood shows its not just a "bias" for the SE....not this time anyways, but it shows the severity of the event relative to the norm, as well as to a lesser degree that absolute severity.

[North East Blizzard]

29 minutes ago, kold weather said:

A Dudley level storm normally hits Scotland/north every season, possibly a couple of times a season in more active years. Its nothing too out of the ordinary, though of course it does merit warnings clearly.

Eunice as it is *currently* modelled is significantly more unusual. When your talking of possible 70-80mph gusts into densely populated areas that get those sorts of winds every 5-10 years or so, thats very media worthy and people do need to be given quite obvious media warnings, particularly given the area is just not used to those sorts of winds as you say.

Anyway still quite a few runs to go on the models and small shifts will make significant differences in terms of strength and location of strongest winds.

We've already had a storm like that up here, and another not far behind, a friend lost his whole roof and has been living in a hotel since, 1000's of trees down throughout the North East, and many buildings devastated A red warning was issued for the November storm, I guess because it didn't affect large swathes is the reason it didn't make many headlines at the time, but some were without power for quite a considerable amount of time. 

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, North East Blizzard said:

We've already had a storm like that up here, and another not far behind, a friend lost his whole roof and has been living in a hotel since, 1000's of trees down throughout the North East, and many buildings devastated A red warning was issued for the November storm, I guess because it didn't affect large swathes is the reason it didn't make many headlines at the time, but some were without power for quite a considerable amount of time. 

Yes and I followed that thread, probably didn't post in it, can't remember now, but it had literally no impact where I live. So would have had not much to say.

[Snowjokes92]

7 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Yesterday the trend was that the storm was tracking more across the south on each run. It’s looks to be tracking a little further north again this morning. Looks very worrying. 

Im a bit concerned now. Its slightpy trended north this brings more of the north of england in line, seems there will be no escape from this one. These things usually downgrade near the time frame, but its seems to be bring more areas in line and the intensity more or less the same, if not worse. Red warnings tomorrow?

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

We've already had a storm like that up here, and another not far behind, a friend lost his whole roof and has been living in a hotel since, 1000's of trees down throughout the North East, and many buildings devastated A red warning was issued for the November storm, I guess because it didn't affect large swathes is the reason it didn't make many headlines at the time, but some were without power for quite a considerable amount of time. 

Also it was in the news down here for ages, due to the power problems, both storm were.

[Paul]

UKV 12z continues the theme of pretty unpleasant viewing for Friday. 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ukv

 

[Midlander]

ICON 12Z (Prefer Weather Outlook as can see it in mph)

[claret047]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

BBC Lunchtime 1.30pm forecast with Chris Fawkes said 'potentially' could be one of the worst storms for the last few decades' with associated winds widely from 70-100mph gusts...not sitting on the fence there! 100mph gusts mainly towards the south west exposed areas.

I very much doubt anyone will be sitting on the fence on Friday, they would be blown off it!

[pinball wizard]

14 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I was just going to post something similar. In the Internet era, I'm struggling to remember something projected to be as severe, just 36 hours out. Maybe the St Jude Day storm, but I don't think so?

Anyone got any charts or wind speed data from St Judes storm?

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, claret047 said:

I very much doubt anyone will be sitting on the fence on Friday, they would be blown off it!

Fence probably won't be there to sit on.

[Cloud 10]

On 16/02/2022 at 15:09, Skullzrulerz said:

So, been seeing about this storm and looking at it briefly there's definitely some concern but I wouldn't go and say it's one of the worst storms.

Most likely downgrade before hand so not worried at the moment.

 

I admire your nerve.

 

If i lived in Cornwall i would be out buying some new underpants.

 

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, pinball wizard said:

Anyone got any charts or wind speed data from St Judes storm?

Would also be interested in these, specific the last hour, just as it cleared.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

We've already had a storm like that up here, and another not far behind, a friend lost his whole roof and has been living in a hotel since, 1000's of trees down throughout the North East, and many buildings devastated A red warning was issued for the November storm, I guess because it didn't affect large swathes is the reason it didn't make many headlines at the time, but some were without power for quite a considerable amount of time. 

Yeah storm Arwen definitely was a strong system, though it was more the direction of the winds that caused the real problems rather than the relative strength of the system itself, causing it to hit places usually more sheltered. Besides, it did get a LOT of attention in the media, though Omicron was just blowing up at the time so maybe not as much attention as normally would expect.

A similar power system going into the south of England is rare more for the absolute strength of the storm, and such a system would give the 90/87 storms a run for their money and those two are widely considered some of the most extreme wind events in modern history for that part of the country, so thats the sort of level its at.

 

[cowdog]

5 minutes ago, Paul said:

UKV 12z continues the theme of pretty unpleasant viewing for Friday. 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ukv

 

First time the top of the scale is hitting the North of England. Its definitely moved North, at least on UKV.

[James102]

20 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

I can see your point re it deserving more coverage but I think it's the South east bias on here and often on the news coverage of storms that irritates some people. I'm pretty sure most northern members on here would agree that if Eunice was forecast to hit north of Manchester then it would definitely not have 25 + pages. I wasn't on here in 2011/12 but there were two storms of similar strength to Eunice which mostly affected the north of England, NI and Scotland. I'd hazard a guess that those got nowhere near as much attention on here.

That may be justified to some extent because many Things That Will Blow Down in 70/80mph Gusts have already blown down over recent years in the north, whereas the south has accumulated a big store of these things since 1990.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Also it was in the news down here for ages, due to the power problems, both storm were.

Had hurricane-force wind in February 1989, and have never seen so many trees come down, in such a short time, before or since. But, seeing as it was only across Northern Scotland, no one outwith the readership of the Press & Journal ever knew it happened!

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Anyone got any charts or wind speed data from St Judes storm?

I've not got it to hand but I believe most inland places were in the 65-75mph range for peak gusts. Some coastal areas in the south went quite abit higher though, especially exposed parts.