Storm Eunice - 18th February

[FetchCB]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The run up to this event is important in my view.  Not only have we had storm Dudley, but in my neck of the woods we have had two days recently when it rained pretty much all day (yesterday and Sunday).  If the ground is wet and soggy, it is more likely that trees may be uprooted when the really strong winds hit.  I’m probably preempting the 12z runs but I think large swathes of the south are looking at a pretty scary event not seen in recent years at all.  

If I remember correctly that was one of the factors in the number of trees uprooted in 1987..alog with them still being in full leaf of course

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, JamesC said:

I just looked back through the previous UKV runs and it does seem to be slightly downgrading each run. Compare the 6z run to the 12z, there is a noticeable difference in windspeeds. 

Possibly a trend? 

I haven't seen that at all, only minor variations for locations, but overall, nothing has changed.

[shunthebartlett92]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Not much respite on latest GFS, 12z T48:

If you can make out where the country is under all that dark red!  

Certainly no appreciable southerly move on this run.  

True, although thats not a hi-res frame there which is what i was alluding to. I believe the devastating gusts (80mph approx) are less abundant on some of the latest hi-res runs. 

[JamesC]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Perhaps that is the case for the far south, but the northern half of England looks worse as well as the extreme east of E Anglia, too. To me the strongest wind gusts are a little more widespread on the 12z.

Yes definitely more widespread but also (slightly) weaker with a northerly shift.

Look at the timeframes when the storm is off the coast of southern Ireland and compare 6z to 12z, noticeably weaker than 06z. 

[Jayces]

I see a few comparisons to the 87 storm and I just wanted to state the obvious, don't go outside unless absolutely essential. I was 17 and stupid in October 87, lived near Gatwick and was woken up at 3 AM ish by the wind so thought it would be fun to go out. Took my clunky camcorder to film but don't know what happened to the tape. I wandered round for an hour or so, struggled to stay up right much of the time and was hit in the head by a small branch which knocked some sense into me as I decided maybe it wasn't the wisest time to be outside with winds approaching 100 miles an hour.

For a teenager it was an amzing experience watching the power of mother nature, the more grown up me though realises I could easily have lot my life, I mean I wandered thtough the local woods in the middle of the night! Sure listeing to the trees fighting the gale was mad but listeing to trees coming down but not seeing them was insane.

Seeing the destruction on the way to work the next day was surreal, crossing the level crossing and looking down at number of pine trees laying horizontal across the tracks as far as the eyes could see was hard to describe.

I'm sure all here respect the power of mother nature, I know I did a lot more after that. Stay safe everyone.

 

[JamesC]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I haven't seen that at all, only minor variations for locations, but overall, nothing has changed.

Compare 06z to 12z, there is a definite small decrease in wind speed if you compare frame to frame. It is generally over a larger area but also generally lower speeds. 

I love to see extreme weather but I would hope for a few downgrades on this, there will be loss of life and property as things stand. When looking at previous storms of a similar calibre there has always been loss of life, either directly or indirectly. 

[Norrance]

21 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Hi All,

 

I don’t post so much here anymore because life…

 

however I have seen the forecast.

 

I am planning on travelling and getting an Airbnb somewhere to experience this storm, specifically the snow.

 

where is it looking best to go currently?

 

preferably somewhere with a train station so I don’t have to drive.

For the snow looking like the Scottish borders somewhere or the very far North of England but away from the coast or you could just get a sleety mess. 

[Mapantz]

Just now, JamesC said:

Compare 06z to 12z, there is a definite small decrease in wind speed if you compare frame to frame. It is generally over a larger area but also generally lower speeds. 

I love to see extreme weather but I would hope for a few downgrades on this, there will be loss of life and property as things stand. When looking at previous storms of a similar calibre there has always been loss of life, either directly or indirectly. 

Look at the raw data for your location on the met office forecast, that's from the UKV.

I've been checking in every 5 or 6 hours for the past two days, and wind speeds for this location have barely changed, and have actually increased today.

[shunthebartlett92]

 

5 minutes ago, JamesC said:

We can hope but I doubt it. 

There will be little change from now until Friday in my opinion, it might trend to a slight downgrade in windspeeds but the majority of the south will see 60 - 80+mph.

Not ideal! 

Whilst im not saying this isnt a significant weather event, i do think youve got to remember that this low is in its infancy stages, and theres a huge amount of volatility which we've seen time and time again doesnt always follow the track that people think it will. People have a reason to be concerned, but there's still a nagging doubt that the track of the low may not follow the route people think it will. For example, how many times in the depths of december or january do you see these lows go far south of the UK, or indeed develop with less severity than was shown on the models. Theres a lot of anxiety here, i can feel it, and yes whilst its likely there will be some horrible wind speeds recorded, i do think there'll be some changes in the morning.

[JamesC]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Look at the raw data for your location on the met office forecast, that's from the UKV.

I've been checking in every 5 or 6 hours for the past two days, and wind speeds for this location have barely changed, and have actually increased today.

For your area..... 

Look at the storm as a whole. 

[philglossop]

Remember 1987 and 1990 very clearly and I’d say this for time and impact is on a par with Burns Day storm. Winds over 80mph here forecast. 

[Skullzrulerz]

33 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The models ARE in agreement, about as good agreement as I've ever seen to be honest when it comes to these type of systems. 

Not a single model goes below 75mph winds for the south, and quite a few are significantly stronger.

Are they gusts or sustained winds? 

If it's still like that tomorrow, I start to prepare and such.

30 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

I think most of them are broadly in agreement though?

 

 

I think there's still some details to be sorted, though models have the tendency to downgrade theses storms in my area.

[JamesC]

2 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

 

Whilst im not saying this isnt a significant weather event, i do think youve got to remember that this low is in its infancy stages, and theres a huge amount of volatility which we've seen time and time again doesnt always follow the track that people think it will. People have a reason to be concerned, but there's still a nagging doubt that the track of the low may not follow the route people think it will. For example, how many times in the depths of december or january do you see these lows go far south of the UK, or indeed develop with less severity than was shown on the models. Theres a lot of anxiety here, i can feel it, and yes whilst its likely there will be some horrible wind speeds recorded, i do think there'll be some changes in the morning.

So implying that all of the models are wrong along with MO and other weather agencies (excl possibly some ICON runs)?

I love your optimism! I personally think that this storm will hit and hit hard. 

[shunthebartlett92]

Just now, JamesC said:

So implying that all of the models are wrong along with MO and other weather agencies (excl possibly some ICON runs)?

I love your optimism! I personally think that this storm will hit and hit hard. 

ive listened to the met offices releases on this, including a twitter seminar thing today and theres still a huge amount of uncertainty. 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Are they gusts or sustained winds? 

If it's still like that tomorrow, I start to prepare and such.

Those are gusts. I personally don't think this is going to be in the same sort of ballpark as the historic storms  (87 and 90) but I think perhaps something a little more severe than Kryill 2007 and probably decently above the St Jude's storm from 2013. A system in that ballpark (lets say A tier rather than S tier) is still going to cause large problems.

I think there is enough scope that even if it was downgraded it will still be a pretty significant storm for the south, especially inland. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by kold weather

[Man With Beard]

A welcome very slight downgrade from the GFS (unless you want to see the forces of nature unleashed"), perhaps 3-6mph slower than the previous few runs:

Still more powerful than Storm Arwen, which got a red warning and pretty horrendous damage in the ourple zone - this is how the GFS saw that one 24 hours beforehand

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A welcome very slight downgrade from the GFS (unless you want to see the forces of nature unleashed"), perhaps 3-6mph slower than the previous few runs:

Still more powerful than Storm Arwen, which got a red warning and pretty horrendous damage in the ourple zone - this is how the GFS saw that one 24 hours beforehand

Sustained downgrade or slight wobble? That’s the question. The low looks a tiny bit flabbier in general on the 12z.

[Frostbite1980]

What concerns me is the latest 12z is probably a half way house, there are some ensembles that make a lot less of the storm but there are also a fair few that are a lot stronger. All we can hope is the less vicious members are right! 

[Ross90]

My prediction, increasing slight downgrades run on run until Friday morning. Inland areas won't go above 80mph, probably 65 - 75mph for most and maybe around 90 near southern and south west coasts.

[JamesC]

1 minute ago, Ross90 said:

My prediction, increasing slight downgrades run on run until Friday morning. Inland areas won't go above 80mph, probably 65 - 75mph for most and maybe around 90 near southern and south west coasts.

Spot on in my opinion, 2nd this. 

Will still be an interesting storm! I work on a construction site in Surrey and we have just built two 35 storey towers, I'll be standing on the capping slab at the top at peak wind intensity!

Can't wait. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

ARPEGE 12z also a slight tone down on max wind gusts, though still widespread 75-80mph inland gusts forecast.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[GSP]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A welcome very slight downgrade from the GFS (unless you want to see the forces of nature unleashed"), perhaps 3-6mph slower than the previous few runs:

Still more powerful than Storm Arwen, which got a red warning and pretty horrendous damage in the ourple zone - this is how the GFS saw that one 24 hours beforehand

Hope it’s a trend. Let me see that’s about 6 more runs at 6mph less each run we will end up with 50mph gusts. Think most could cope with that! I think they’ll be a few prayers going on though!

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

My prediction, increasing slight downgrades run on run until Friday morning. Inland areas won't go above 80mph, probably 65 - 75mph for most and maybe around 90 near southern and south west coasts.

Your basically describing storm Kyrill there from 2007, which according to the UKMO would have been a red warning had the system existed.

So whilst not as extreme as what is being shown atm by some models, what your describing in the south still justifies a red warning.

I also broadly think your not going to be far wrong, though I'd up the winds to 70-80mph, for most.

[birdman]

8 minutes ago, JamesC said:

Spot on in my opinion, 2nd this. 

Will still be an interesting storm! I work on a construction site in Surrey and we have just built two 35 storey towers, I'll be standing on the capping slab at the top at peak wind intensity!

Can't wait. 

Won't the site be closed due to health and safety? 

[Mike Poole]

ARPEGE 12z from T37 to T57:

 

What would appear to be the case is strongest winds along the south coast first, then pouring across the midlands south during the day, and I don’t think GFS 12z is that dissimilar, so we can start to imagine where the red warnings might be issued - I think many places might see one, the difference is perhaps in the timing they apply for, which could differ quite a bit depending on location.