Storm Eunice - 18th February

[JamesC]

1 minute ago, birdman said:

Won't the site be closed due to health and safety? 

No we are almost finished so mostly contained. 35 floors up (400ft or so) it will be relatively safe as well as nothing can fly into me! Will be quite an experience.

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ARPEGE 12z also a slight tone down on max wind gusts, though still widespread 75-80mph inland gusts forecast.

Still going for 4-5hrs of gusting into the 70s for London as well.

Going to be a very windy day on Friday, and I still think we are probably looking at a 1 in 5/10 year event for the south (can't rule out something more but atm I don't think it will be getting that severe)

[IanT]

19 minutes ago, JamesC said:

So implying that all of the models are wrong along with MO and other weather agencies (excl possibly some ICON runs)?

I love your optimism! I personally think that this storm will hit and hit hard. 

What is modelled is at the high end of historical experience, especially perhaps given the large area under threat. But there is more scope for downgrades than upgrades. It’s time to watch the runs, not yet time to “rush preparations to completion”…

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Still more powerful than Storm Arwen, which got a red warning and pretty horrendous damage in the ourple zone - this is how the GFS saw that one 24 hours beforehand

Thought I'd add this when drawing comparisons with Storm Arwen using GFS: 

- The maximum gust from Storm Arwen not up a mountain was 98mph

- This is how GFS looked 3 hours before it happened:

- This is how the GFS looked 2 days before it happened (so similar timeframe as we're looking at now)

  

So it actually intensified the modelling inside the final 48 hours. Doesn't always happen like that though. But I found it interesting to see what the GFS colours resulted in for a situation where there is hindsight.

 

[Dundeeguy]

58 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I am travelling north to Scotland in the early hours of Saturday morning after the storm has passed through so my concern at that time is snow across the high level routes (eg A66). I am hoping it will have melted or turned to rain by then?

Sorry but absolutely no chance of snow melt up on high roads in Scotland. Roads will very dangerous after snow batters Scotland on Friday 

[Lorraine]

Hi all

Thought I'd say hi , Just having a read to see what's on it's way. Looking quite interesting 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

I know this isn’t the main focus given the potential situation through much of England but how confident can we be of my forum name being realised on Friday? Seen a few forecasts hinting at snow right through the central belt from the east, which for Glasgow is pretty ideal if you want decent snowfall.

[weirpig]

No let up on the ukmo 12z  very high winds anywhere in England and Wales  for quite a few hours  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not much respite on the UKMO

[jellybaby1969]

3 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

I know this isn’t the main focus given the potential situation through much of England but how confident can we be of my forum name being realised on Friday? Seen a few forecasts hinting at snow right through the central belt from the east, which for Glasgow is pretty ideal if you want decent snowfall.

Looks like many places in Scotland will see snow accumalting very quickly.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not much respite on the UKMO

Yep very high winds  open to change but England Wales  anywhere will have disruption

[Midlander]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not much respite on the UKMO

At least that hasn't downgraded, if I can't have snow I'll have a good windstorm.

[cookie27]

I think what might turn out to be interesting is the amount of taller buildings we have since last major storm this south. Places like Shard must be expecting 100mph winds at that high up, infact something like 11 buildings over 200m in London. Let's see if they were built to withstand this extreme event.

 

Also, wanted to add given the timing and strength it's certain Met Office will change the Amber to Red, I expect tomorrow morning. And might be a government warning advising people to stay indoors as this will be epic event by the looks of it. 

 

Something the models aren't going for and considering that it's a rapidly declining low is that it further depends still after landfall and as it enters North Sea, but might pick this up once it's properly formed and track is tied down.

 

[Mike Poole]

UKMO 12z T38 to T54:

 

I’ve run this one slower on the animation as it is probably likely to be more accurate than the GFS or ARPEGE at this range.  You can see the eye of the storm develop and evolve through the run, and the winds gusts are higher than those from the other models, so this run is on the more severe end of the envelope of uncertainty at the moment, but those purples crossing western and southern England will be very hazardous, keep safe everyone.  

Edited February 16, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Sainsbo]

Possibly an even stronger storm on the 12z UKMO - large swathe of 80-85mph+ gusts inland. Will be interesting to see how the evolution differs to the GFS which seems have tempered the strongest gusts.

 

[cookie27]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Yep very high winds  open to change but England Wales  anywhere will have disruption

I just saw this and did intrigue me greatly at that 200kph in the Atlantic...is that possible another low forming right behind Eunice or 'stingjet' that might be dragged across south england after Eunice.

[Froze were the Days]

50 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not much respite on latest GFS, 12z T48:

If you can make out where the country is under all that dark red!  

Certainly no appreciable southerly move on this run.  

Isn't 965mb deeper than previous runs and ecm 0z run? and isn't GFS meant to have a better handle within 72hrs on such tracks of low in that timescale?

[GSP]

16 minutes ago, cookie27 said:

Also, wanted to add given the timing and strength it's certain Met Office will change the Amber to Red, I expect tomorrow morning. And might be a government warning advising people to stay indoors as this will be epic event by the looks of it. 

 

Yep, at least we are used to and had plenty of practice in staying indoors!

Edited February 16, 2022 by GSP

[jamesbhx]

Just now, Sainsbo said:

Possibly an even stronger storm on the 12z UKMO - large swathe of 80-85mph+ gusts inland. Will be interesting to see how the evolution differs to the GFS which seems have tempered the strongest gusts.

 

Tend to agree, UKMO 12z stronger for the south east. A few frames later on from your chart shows Brighton at 90mph peak gust.

[GSP]

Eye, eye!

[James Maidstone]

5 minutes ago, cookie27 said:

I just saw this and did intrigue me greatly at that 200kph in the Atlantic...is that possible another low forming right behind Eunice or 'stingjet' that might be dragged across south england after Eunice.

These are max gusts from the whole of the storms evolution, so the 200kph is the storm passing through there SW of Ireland in the early hours of Friday and the associated gusts with it.

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Isn't 965mb deeper than previous runs and ecm 0z run? and isn't GFS meant to have a better handle within 72hrs on such tracks of low in that timescale?

At this range I’d go with UKMO, has 968 T40:

GFS as far as I know still over develops lows in 4 days time, but under 2 days to go, all the main models ought to be pretty close even with this level of uncertainty.  

[cookie27]

2 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

These are max gusts from the whole of the storms evolution, so the 200kph is the storm passing through there SW of Ireland in the early hours of Friday and the associated gusts with it.

Ah ok get that, my french isn't very good lol

[Paul_1978]

25 minutes ago, Dundeeguy said:

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

Paul_1978: I am travelling north to Scotland in the early hours of Saturday morning after the storm has passed through so my concern at that time is snow across the high level routes (eg A66). I am hoping it will have melted or turned to rain by then?

Dundeeguy: Sorry but absolutely no chance of snow melt up on high roads in Scotland. Roads will very dangerous after snow batters Scotland on Friday 

I think I might be better going up the A1 all the way up to Edinburgh and across the Forth Bridge rather than the A1, then across the A66 and up the M74. 

I was intending to set off at about 03:00 on Saturday morning.

[saintkip]

Is it common for trains to be cancelled due to the wind? Last thinkg I want is to get to London on train and then be told the train to Edinburgh is cancelled, might just drive up.