Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Dundeeguy]

4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I think I might be better going up the A1 all the way up to Edinburgh and across the Forth Bridge rather than the A1, then across the A66 and up the M74. 

I was intending to set off at about 03:00 on Saturday morning.

Probably a better idea mate. M74 higher parts should be cleared but any minor roads will be a complete right off. Low levels 5cm and higher routes 20 maybe 30cm for large area of Scotland 

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

2 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Is it common for trains to be cancelled due to the wind? Last thinkg I want is to get to London on train and then be told the train to Edinburgh is cancelled, might just drive up. 

Trains will most likely be canceld friday as debris on track 

[Guest]

With the low expected to deepen by a few mb as it crosses the northern half of the country, is there a risk of a sting jet developing on the southern side?

[shunthebartlett92]

1 minute ago, Dundeeguy said:

Probably a better idea mate. M74 higher parts should be cleared but any minor roads will be a complete right off. Low levels 5cm and higher routes 20 maybe 30cm for large area of Scotland 

i think low levels, particularly close to the coast will be more sleety than anything across the central belt. 100m plus should see accumulations. But just like a channel low, the precip might not make it too far up anyway. South Scotland looks best placed imo, around galashiels etc.

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

Trains will most likely be canceld friday as debris on track 

Train leaving London 10.30am Friday, though I might just be ahead of the worst winds.

[Paul_1978]

3 minutes ago, Dundeeguy said:

Probably a better idea mate. M74 higher parts should be cleared but any minor roads will be a complete right off. Low levels 5cm and higher routes 20 maybe 30cm for large area of Scotland 

Cheers - will keep my eye on the situation! Once I'm across the bridge I'll be heading for the A90 at Perth, then A96 up into Aberdeenshire. Long drive!

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

i think low levels, particularly close to the coast will be more sleety than anything across the central belt. 100m plus should see accumulations. But just like a channel low, the precip might not make it too far up anyway. South Scotland looks best placed imo, around galashiels etc.

That's what I'm thinking - the A1 is very close to the east side and is very coastal as you get up towards Berwick so think that will be better than going across the A66 and up through Glasgow

Edited February 16, 2022 by Paul_1978

[saint]

9 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Is it common for trains to be cancelled due to the wind? Last thinkg I want is to get to London on train and then be told the train to Edinburgh is cancelled, might just drive up. 

LNER, who run trains out of Kings Cross, have already advised customers not to travel due to expected disruption on Friday. Trains often suffer during high wind events due to trees next to the lines and damage to the electric equipment. 

[shunthebartlett92]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Cheers - will keep my eye on the situation! Once I'm across the bridge I'll be heading for the A90 at Perth, then A96 up into Aberdeenshire. Long drive!

Gods country my friend! A route i was doing just last friday, lovely route it is, at least Stirling to Perth and then coming into the outskirts of Aberdeen you see the cairngorms!

 

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

That's what I'm thinking - the A1 is very close to the east side and is very coastal as you get up towards Berwick so think that will be better than going across the A66 and up through Glasgow

Yeah you should be ok there, sleetiness for much of that coastal run. Jedburgh, Moffat and Galashiels should look spectacular!

[Guest]

UKMO 12z is atrocious for many areas  Notable, remarkable, terrifying, captivating...

      

A worst-case scenario? 

 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just now, Steel City Skies said:

UKMO 12z is atrocious for many areas  Notable, remarkable, terrifying, captivating...

      

A worst-case scenario? 

 

UKV is likely to follow this I would guess

[saintkip]

2 minutes ago, saint said:

LNER, who run trains out of Kings Cross, have already advised customers not to travel due to expected disruption on Friday. Trains often suffer during high wind events due to trees next to the lines and damage to the electric equipment. 

Cheers for that, looks like we’ll be driving up.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Train leaving London 10.30am Friday, though I might just be ahead of the worst winds.

Odds are the train is still going to get hit by the 70-85mph region of wind on its way up through jone counties.

Given Scottish rail have now cancelled all services due to Dudley, I fully expect most if not all trains in the Amber zones to be cancelled, especially long distance ones.

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Odds are the train is still going to get hit by the 70-85mph region of wind on its way up through jone counties.

Given Scottish rail have now cancelled all services due to Dudley, I fully expect most if not all trains in the Amber zones to be cancelled, especially long distance ones.

Cheers

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

UKMO 12z is atrocious for many areas  Notable, remarkable, terrifying, captivating...

      

A worst-case scenario? 

 

This model was a little higher than reality during Storm Arwen - but not much

[Nick L]

17 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Is it common for trains to be cancelled due to the wind? Last thinkg I want is to get to London on train and then be told the train to Edinburgh is cancelled, might just drive up. 

Yep. There is a threshold for wind speed (I think it's 70mph) where they cancel services.

[CLH]

What's the threshold for grounding aircraft? 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

UKMO 12z is atrocious for many areas  Notable, remarkable, terrifying, captivating...

      

A worst-case scenario? 

 

Surely at less than T48 you would have to favour the UKMO model for the UK over all the others even ECM.  Its primary purpose is to forecast the UK weather after all.  But looking at the others on the 12z suite, it is the most severe, but not by that much.  What strikes me with this track is how much of the country is exposed at one time or another to the highest gusts, it could be the largest red warning ever when it is issued tomorrow about 11am….???

[Eagle Eye]

I... this is a bit more than hold onto your hats

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Surely at less than T48 you would have to favour the UKMO model for the UK over all the others even ECM.  Its primary purpose is to forecast the UK weather after all.  But looking at the others on the 12z suite, it is the most severe, but not by that much.  What strikes me with this track is how much of the country is exposed at one time or another to the highest gusts, it could be the largest red warning ever when it is issued tomorrow about 11am….???

Yes I agree. It could be the most remarkable aspect about Eunice, to be honest. The severity is on such a potentially widespread scale  

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

I’m on the coast in Pembrokeshire, scary times ahead it seems! 

[Sky Full]

3 hours ago, Snow Queen one said:

I would trade the blizzards and snow for the strong winds anyday.  I lost tiles on my roof  a ragstone garden wall was knocked down and the full length curtains i washed and left on the line vanished in 1987.  Was scariest thing i have witnessed.  Since that storm i have been very unnerved when it comes to high winds.

Two things I remember most about the 1987 storm - the extremely loud howl eerily whining around the house and roof sounding like a jet fighter testing its engines, and the flashes of light across the whole horizon as falling trees took down power lines.   I can only hope that Eunice does not strengthen to that level because the damage was awful.  Not likely to see flashes of light during the day, on Friday, of course.

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

Is there a chance the winds could weaken when they enter over the Irish Sea? I’m wondering how bad it’s really going to be. I spoke to my dad who worked on the sea all his life and is 79 in April and his reply was ‘bring it on’ :0

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Trains will either have to run with a blanket speed restriction to minimise the risk of damage or even derailment due to debris, or as others have mentioned may be withdrawn altogether. Given the scale of the forecast I’d expect the latter will happen. No point in putting safety of passengers and staff at risk unnecessarily.

Most trains in Scotland already suspended today, although that tends to be regular decision when bad weather strikes here. There was a serious accident 18 months ago caused by bad weather (albeit not wind on that occasion) and so those in charge can be quite cautious.

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, CLH said:

What's the threshold for grounding aircraft? 

It depends on aircraft type, company aircraft policy and runway length.

A plane could land into a very strong headwind, but add an element of crosswind and/or tailwind then safety policy reduces the threshold.