Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKV 15z run still going for widespread 70mph gusts, just about anywhere in southern parts could get to 80mph. Coastal areas going to 90mph.

Further north a 2nd hook of high wins cones through, ukv really going to town with this one, fairly wide region of 80mph winds with some as high as 88-90mph...

Yep that second hook of winds has been shown the last 24 hours, coastal NW England perhaps taking a bartering?

[Glaswegianblizzard]

28 minutes ago, Dundeeguy said:

Everywhere will be different but I’m sure some low levels will see big accumulations, up to date snow depth map 

Am I reading this correctly? Suggestion of 8-10cm of snow in Glasgow by Friday night? That’s Feb/March 2018 stuff. As was mentioned by @shuggee earlier Im surprised more isn’t being made of that, if confidence in this modelling is high (maybe it isn’t?)

[AWD]

Worth noting that cross border trains services such as Avanti and LNER are still operating to/from Scotland, through the current Amber warning (70mph+ winds) area, albeit with a significant reduction in speed, so cancellations aren't guaranteed.

They may all trundle around at 20mph for the day! 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep that second hook of winds has been shown the last 24 hours, coastal NW England perhaps taking a bartering?

Yes, this is why it looks like the highest winds will affect large swathes of England and Wales at some point.  I don’t see this aspect being downgraded now in the main models, even if the maximum gusts are (and actually I don’t think they will either).  Could anyone have drawn a storm hit any better that impacted as much of the southern half of the British isles, than this one?  Caveat - it hasn’t happened yet, but room for manoeuvre on the models now must be very limited.  

[NickyB]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep that second hook of winds has been shown the last 24 hours, coastal NW England perhaps taking a bartering?

The timing of it coincides with school kids making their way home  

[Mapantz]

South Wales looks to be a sweet spot for a red warning..

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Mapantz said:

South Wales looks to be a sweet spot for a red warning..

So do a lot of places, if I’m honest!

[stripeyfox]

Really glad I've not got to go anywhere on Friday!
 

Ex wife is away with the kids - tried suggesting she might be wise to consider heading back tomorrow night rather than Friday but I don't think she's going to listen to me!
 

Edited February 16, 2022 by stripeyfox

[Man With Beard]

Latest from ECM: 90mph plus for some SW coasts, otherwise 70-80 mph (a few spots 85mph) quite widely for England/Wales 

[Gooddaysunshine]

I’m moving house soon. Now worrying about the storms for two houses! The one I’m selling and the one I’m buying. Here looking for a downgrade...... but doesn’t look promising

[weirpig]

Latest ECm has the highest winds close to swansea  reaching just below 100mph  everywhere else  in england  over at least 60 mph  this is the north of england .  Midlands  south and Northwest  at least 70-75mph

[nick sussex]

The last horrendous storm I saw was Klaus in January 2009 when I was living near Lourdes in sw France . That knocked out power to over 1.7 million households and it took 5 days for that to come back for me .

Eunice actually looks worse as it will be covering overall much more densely populated areas and the winds look to be sustained for longer .

 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Latest from ECM: 90mph plus for some SW coasts, otherwise 70-80 mph (a few spots 85mph) quite widely for England/Wales 

 

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Latest ECm has the highest winds close to swansea  reaching just below 100mph  everywhere else  in england  over at least 60 mph  this is the north of england .  Midlands  south and Northwest  at least 70-75mph

The ECM seems to have the most pessimistic output in terms of how strong the winds are and the depth of the low of all the 12z runs.  But that is small margins, and the other models aren’t far behind.  As I said earlier, I think UKMO evolution is likely to be closest to what happens.  

[stripeyfox]

I know we're all weather enthusiasts on here - but I'd really like to wake up to a downgrade in the morning.

If this hits like some of the models are showing then there is going to be a lot of disruption, damage and probably even death for a few unfortunate people.

 

[suffolkboy_]

Just now, stripeyfox said:

I know we're all weather enthusiasts on here - but I'd really like to wake up to a downgrade in the morning.

If this hits like some of the models are showing then there is going to be a lot of disruption, damage and probably even death for a few unfortunate people.

 

Arguably you could say the same for any extreme weather. People are struck by lightening, people are killed by extreme cold or heat. People need to take head of the warnings and give weather the respect it deserves. 

[Mapantz]

I don't think they'll be widespread red warnings, I think they'll be limited. It was similar during the 2013/2014 Winter. We had numerous storms with 80mph for Southern counties, and only amber warnings were issued. A red warning was issued for some parts of Wales iirc? They had winds of 90 to 110mph.

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The last horrendous storm I saw was Klaus in January 2009 when I was living near Lourdes in sw France . That knocked out power to over 1.7 million households and it took 5 days for that to come back for me .

Eunice actually looks worse as it will be covering overall much more densely populated areas and the winds look to be sustained for longer .

 

Yes, what I think is important from todays model runs is the extent of the country that will be subjected to potentially damaging winds at some point on Friday, that wasn’t as clear yesterday.  And as you say, in densely populated areas.  Welcome back to England, Nick!

Edited February 16, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, stripeyfox said:

I know we're all weather enthusiasts on here - but I'd really like to wake up to a downgrade in the morning.

If this hits like some of the models are showing then there is going to be a lot of disruption, damage and probably even death for a few unfortunate people.

 

From what I have seen this evening, the south west has seen a slight downgrade in terms of wind speeds.

I would even go to say that from this morning's it's looks just a tad less now.

[shunthebartlett92]

2 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

I know we're all weather enthusiasts on here - but I'd really like to wake up to a downgrade in the morning.

If this hits like some of the models are showing then there is going to be a lot of disruption, damage and probably even death for a few unfortunate people.

 

Me too mate, nothing exciting about it, if anything just making me miserable!

[AFCBSNOW]

16 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

South Wales looks to be a sweet spot for a red warning..

We look right in the firing line, I can see the Christchurch storm defence being breached and I'm sure the cherries game against forest will be off

[Thunder Snow]

Hoping to see alittle snow on Friday heres hoping.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, what I think is important from todays model runs is the extent of the country that will be subjected to potentially damaging winds at some point on Friday, that’s wasn’t as clear yesterday.  And as you say, in densely populated areas.  Welcome back to England, Nick!

Thanks . I should have delayed  my return from Cyprus ! I have a major storm phobia after Klaus . So this Eunice is doing my head in ! 

[Man With Beard]

Interesting how the models intensify the storm as it gets to the eastern side. 87mph in the Thames anyone?

[pages]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

The ECM seems to have the most pessimistic output in terms of how strong the winds are and the depth of the low of all the 12z runs.  But that is small margins, and the other models aren’t far behind.  As I said earlier, I think UKMO evolution is likely to be closest to what happens.  

I wouldn't be so sure that ECM is over egging it.

Both latest ECM and UKMO have trended slightly further north and are slightly deeper than last few runs.

We all know from seeing heavy snow suddenly start to trend away from us that once a trend starts it usually continues, there is a chance it is actually going to be worse than the ECM currently showing and we just haven't seen it modelled yet.

Obviously we are at short timescale now so not going be massive changes but I wouldn't rule out this being another 5mb deeper and strongest winds 6/7mph  more than currently shown.

Edited February 16, 2022 by pages

[AWD]

8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

From what I have seen this evening, the south west has seen a slight downgrade in terms of wind speeds.

I would even go to say that from this morning's it's looks just a tad less now.

It's very hard to envisage the word "downgrade" properly when the SW is still forecast to experience highly severe wind gusts, widely in excess of 70mph+ easily;

Whilst specific detail might show a general, very slight wane of wind gusts compared to some previous model output, it's all very negligible really and will show little difference on the ground.  70mph+ inland wind gusts (80mph+ coastal) still have a lot of the same potential in terms of disruption etc.  For many, regardless of what degree of severity you wish for, "downgrade" probably isn't a true reflection of what is meant really.

Edited February 16, 2022 by AWD