Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:

Arguably you could say the same for any extreme weather. People are struck by lightening, people are killed by extreme cold or heat. People need to take head of the warnings and give weather the respect it deserves. 

Yes, indeed. I remember coming down from Cairngorm one winter, during a blizzard: a family of 'foreigners' was still on its way up. I guess the mixture of snow, ice-pellets and a gale-force wind (together with their typically 'English' attire of shell-suit tops, shorts and trainers) soon told them to turn back?

Some folks have no respect for Mother Nature at all!

Edited February 16, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Wimbledon88]

Remember that in the 87 storm winds gusted to 94mph in Central London! Won't he anywhere near that. Though that was at 2am when folk were in bed or at least indoors. 

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Remember that in the 87 storm winds gusted to 94mph in Central London! Won't he anywhere near that. Though that was at 2am when folk were in bed or at least indoors. 

You might want to whisper that quietly, Storm Eunice is listening and might overhear you 

[pinball wizard]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interesting how the models intensify the storm as it gets to the eastern side. 87mph in the Thames anyone?

Do you have the chart for the same time showing east anglia that you could share please?

[Porto]

5 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Remember that in the 87 storm winds gusted to 94mph in Central London! Won't he anywhere near that. Though that was at 2am when folk were in bed or at least indoors. 

The ICON-EU and MET already briefly go for high 80s low 90s in the very south of London... Im not fully confident it WONT happen honestly (but still definitely on the high end of the models)

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Remember that in the 87 storm winds gusted to 94mph in Central London! Won't he anywhere near that. Though that was at 2am when folk were in bed or at least indoors. 

You’re confident!  I’m less so…the ‘87 storm came from a completely different direction (south) so you are not comparing like with like.  You are right about the time though, this one is hitting London during the day!  So lower speed gusts might have more impact, of course.  

[FetchCB]

20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I don't think they'll be widespread red warnings, I think they'll be limited. It was similar during the 2013/2014 Winter. We had numerous storms with 80mph for Southern counties, and only amber warnings were issued. A red warning was issued for some parts of Wales iirc? They had winds of 90 to 110mph.

Timing could be a major factor. To the west t will be rush hour when the worst of the winds hit whereas in the east it will be late morning. Less people on the road 

[Jimmyh]

2 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Timing could be a major factor. To the west t will be rush hour when the worst of the winds hit whereas in the east it will be late morning. Less people on the road 

Thats utterly ridiculous sorry. A lot of schools are not on half term in the east and southeast. 60-70mph winds is not nice at anytime. Especially in Central London. Me in Welling still qt 74 my on xc weather and 71 on met office app

[weatherobsuk]

If it wasn't a serious concern then i'd be laughing, but catching up on a few FB Hiking Groups and a few people today have been asking what the best routes are for Tryfan/Glyders on Friday morning because they want to 'experience' the 100mph winds  I know that Yorkshire Dales and Cumbria MRT have already been asking people to consider any outside plans over the next few days, alongside Northumberland closing-off the majority of forest routes that are still effected by Arwen.

[Liam Burge]

I'm not sure why but MetOffice keeps on downgrading the wind gusts for my area for tomorrow yet other forecasts are upgrading them? MetOffice had estimated gusts of 70mph earlier and now it's down to 59.

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Do you have the chart for the same time showing east anglia that you could share please?

Here's Suffolk. To be honest, most areas of England have a chart like this at some point.

 

[North Easterly Breeze]

32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interesting how the models intensify the storm as it gets to the eastern side. 87mph in the Thames anyone?

Ouch from Benfleet/SE Essex! 

[Jimmy0127]

Apologies if this has been asked earlier in the thread, but does anyone know where to access an archive of charts (eg T500hpa+SLP)? Would be interesting to compare and contrast.

Netweather's and Meteociel's GFS feeds seem to have been broken for a while. Thanks.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

I'm not sure why but MetOffice keeps on downgrading the wind gusts for my area for tomorrow yet other forecasts are upgrading them? MetOffice had estimated gusts of 70mph earlier and now it's down to 59.

If you are looking at an app or website, the value shown will just be the latest model run.  

To get an idea of what is really going on you need to view multiple model runs, as you can see on this thread, and watch as they converge towards Friday.  

I wasn’t expecting high wind gusts for tomorrow though?  Surely the action is Friday?  Any road, I’m sure this is the place where you’ll hear it first, guaranteed!  So stay tuned!  

[elfinpunk]

8 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

I'm not sure why but MetOffice keeps on downgrading the wind gusts for my area for tomorrow yet other forecasts are upgrading them? MetOffice had estimated gusts of 70mph earlier and now it's down to 59.

20 miles north of you, MetO has bounced between 63 and 68mph peak today. Despite the fact Weston Bay faces Mumbles Head it never quite hits the same heights even in a due west gale. 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Jimmy0127 said:

Apologies if this has been asked earlier in the thread, but does anyone know where to access an archive of charts (eg T500hpa+SLP)? Would be interesting to compare and contrast.

Netweather's and Meteociel's GFS feeds seem to have been broken for a while. Thanks.

NOAA:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Archives NOAA NCEP de 1836 à maintenant

ECM:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Archives Reanalyse ECMWF ERA 5 de 1950 à maintenant

I think these disappeared for a while when Meteociel had that fire, but are back now.   

[Liam Burge]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If you are looking at an app or website, the value shown will just be the latest model run.  

To get an idea of what is really going on you need to view multiple model runs, as you can see on this thread, and watch as they converge towards Friday.  

I wasn’t expecting high wind gusts for tomorrow though?  Surely the action is Friday?  Any road, I’m sure this is the place where you’ll hear it first, guaranteed!  So stay tuned!  

Yeah my bad, I meant friday.

[If Wishes made Weather]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Tableaux plot for the GEFS 12z, this is the value at each time point for the ensembles for the parameter, which is in this case, of course is wind gusts, gives an idea of the uncertainty, especially where I have indicated on Friday.  This is for somewhere close to London:

Values are in km/hr.

And look at where they bunch (higher probability of occurrence) - its about the top third.

[Liam Burge]

4 minutes ago, elfinpunk said:

20 miles north of you, MetO has bounced between 63 and 68mph peak today. Despite the fact Weston Bay faces Mumbles Head it never quite hits the same heights even in a due west gale. 

I'm not sure why MetOffice is predicting much lower wind gusts than other forecasts (xc predicting 74mph, BBC predicting 72mph, Netweather predicting 72mph)

[IanT]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Tableaux plot for the GEFS 12z, this is the value at each time point for the ensembles for the parameter, which is in this case, of course is wind gusts, gives an idea of the uncertainty, especially where I have indicated on Friday.  This is for somewhere close to London:

Values are in km/hr.

Some extraordinary values.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

I'm not sure why MetOffice is predicting much lower wind gusts than other forecasts (xc predicting 74mph, BBC predicting 72mph, Netweather predicting 72mph)

These values are not worth arguing about, the uncertainty range on them is massive, at least +or- 10 mph, they are just what models are showing I guess, so respect the uncertainty and treat them as + or - 20 mph and they are all the same, no?

[Liam Burge]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

These values are not worth arguing about, the uncertainty range on them is massive, at least +or- 10 mph, they are just what models are showing I guess, so respect the uncertainty and treat them as + or - 20 mph and they are all the same, no?

Not trying to argue. Sorry if it seemed that way.

[Electricmumma]

1 hour ago, stripeyfox said:

Really glad I've not got to go anywhere on Friday!
 

Ex wife is away with the kids - tried suggesting she might be wise to consider heading back tomorrow night rather than Friday but I don't think she's going to listen to me!
 

Yeah I’m having a similar issue with the ex husband who thinks it’s going to be easy to drive from a small rural village in east sussex to a seaside location.. around midday..

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

Not trying to argue. Sorry if it seemed that way.

Sorry, didn’t mean to imply you were arguing!  I was trying to say that with the uncertainty that is still here vis-a-vis Friday, within the uncertainty envelope, maximum wind gust data from various models or websites cannot be relied on at all!

[Liam Burge]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Sorry, didn’t mean to imply you were arguing!  I was trying to say that with the uncertainty that is still here vis-a-vis Friday, within the uncertainty envelope, maximum wind gust data from various models or websites cannot be relied on at all!

Ahh my bad, took the message the wrong way. I agree though; 60mph wind gusts are still potentially disruptive and harmful and people should take this storm seriously.