Storm Eunice - 18th February

[beckyonsea]

Just now, damianslaw said:

I'm wondering where the TV reporters have decided to set up camp this evening. Somewhere on the coast of N Cornwall or N Devon and somewhere South Wales I imagine...

There are a few crews in Clevedon (Somerset) as my mate can see them from her house.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Eunice is getting closer.

That is further north than models have it for this time. I think Mr john Holmes is right with his 5pm look at things. Only means a stronger system. Will be interesting to monitor going forward

[BornFromTheVoid]

Animation itself here again

[swebby]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'm wondering where the TV reporters have decided to set up camp this evening. Somewhere on the coast of N Cornwall or N Devon and somewhere South Wales I imagine...

Dropped off by helicopter on Lundy Island  if they are feeling particular brave/heroic/stupid.

[The Future]

Eunice above 9 for most of Us.  Also Where have the landscape posts gone? They were hill areas.

[alexisj9]

52 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

My word, you've gone low there. Possibly. 

95 here I think.

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, swebby said:

Dropped off by helicopter on Lundy Island  if they are feeling particular brave/heroic/stupid.

They seem less silly nowadays they used to always turn up to some snow bound place but dont do so now I suspect more backlash. I remember Carol Kirkwood doing a report from N Ireland in the snow but it wasnt necessary. It was just an average snowfall.

Edited February 17, 2022 by damianslaw

[cookie27]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'm wondering where the TV reporters have decided to set up camp this evening. Somewhere on the coast of N Cornwall or N Devon and somewhere South Wales I imagine...

I was just thinking the same....most likely Bude, Cardiff, Swansea and Bristol...then London gets devastated and no one there lol

[CLH]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'm wondering where the TV reporters have decided to set up camp this evening. Somewhere on the coast of N Cornwall or N Devon and somewhere South Wales I imagine...

Porthcawl looks like the 'sweet spot' here. Ogmore on Sea too. 

[The4Seasons]

This webcam is going to be an interesting view tomorrow morning for sure if you want to see huge waves. 

https://www.porthcawl-lifeboat.co.uk/live-streaming/

[CLH]

Porthcawl Live Streaming Pier Cam | Porthcawl RNLI

WWW.PORTHCAWL-LIFEBOAT.CO.UK

---

The health crisis has hit our income hard. Lockdown halted the fundraising events we rely on to power our lifesaving service. Yet our volunteer lifeboat crew has never stopped being on call 24/7, ready and...

Bookmark that for 8 am tomorrow

[malli]

49 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Perhaps we should all say what we think the maximum gust will be at our nearest weather station will be and see how good we are at forecasting?  

Doncaster - 64mph

The tail end of Eunice looks to pack a bit of a punch for South Yorkshire between 2 - 4pm.

 

[Loulucas]

21 minutes ago, Gary2701 said:

Staying put in a hotel in Compton Bassett , Wiltshire. Low voltage cable and big trees everywhere.  Candles and torches ready.  Think breakfast here tomorrow will be a cold buffet in candle light. God only knows what trees will come down.

I am about half an hour away from compton. We do have a lot of trees. I remember '87. Longleat forest was decimated. 

[Mike Poole]

Well, we have passed the tipping point for further red warnings today.  They would have had to have been issued before businesses and schools closed for the day, for those businesses and schools to be able make decisions about tomorrow and inform the necessary people about those decisions.  

We’ve seen particularly with schools that the decision has been taken to close in the regions in and close to the red zone.  I worry that with that specific red zone now identified (correctly), people in the huge amber region may take their eyes off the ball - there are amber warnings and amber warnings, this one is at the most severe end (just compare with those put out sometimes for 10cm of snow, for example) but that doesn’t seem to be being communicated.  

I think a large part of the amber region may have had insufficient timely warning - that may because of model uncertainty, and uncertainty over a sting jet, but if some parts wake up tomorrow to a red warning, then there will be no time to ‘take action’.  We will see…

[Nick L]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Well, we have passed the tipping point for further red warnings today.  They would have had to have been issued before businesses and schools closed for the day, for those businesses and schools to be able make decisions about tomorrow and inform the necessary people about those decisions.  

We’ve seen particularly with schools that the decision has been taken to close in the regions in and close to the red zone.  I worry that with that specific red zone now identified (correctly), people in the huge amber region may take their eyes off the ball - there are amber warnings and amber warnings, this one is at the most severe end (just compare with those put out sometimes for 10cm of snow, for example) but that doesn’t seem to be being communicated.  

I think a large part of the amber region may have had insufficient timely warning - that may because of model uncertainty, and uncertainty over a sting jet, but if some parts wake up tomorrow to a red warning, then there will be no time to ‘take action’.  We will see…

I've seen them issued for less than half of that before.

[seb]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, we have passed the tipping point for further red warnings today.  They would have had to have been issued before businesses and schools closed for the day, for those businesses and schools to be able make decisions about tomorrow and inform the necessary people about those decisions.  

We’ve seen particularly with schools that the decision has been taken to close in the regions in and close to the red zone.  I worry that with that specific red zone now identified (correctly), people in the huge amber region may take their eyes off the ball - there are amber warnings and amber warnings, this one is at the most severe end (just compare with those put out sometimes for 10cm of snow, for example) but that doesn’t seem to be being communicated.  

I think a large part of the amber region may have had insufficient timely warning - that may because of model uncertainty, and uncertainty over a sting jet, but if some parts wake up tomorrow to a red warning, then there will be no time to ‘take action’.  We will see…

Red warnings have been issued outside business hours before. I think the news is out there now and responsible businesses have planned ahead.

It’s not like school closures for snow are announced the day before in most cases…

Edited February 17, 2022 by seb

[Stubbette]

Our Cheshire kids are annoyed because their Devon cousins all have school cancelled! Have just moved house and been inspired to set up the weather station in the back garden rather than unpacking the socks!

[SnowBear]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, we have passed the tipping point for further red warnings today.  They would have had to have been issued before businesses and schools closed for the day, for those businesses and schools to be able make decisions about tomorrow and inform the necessary people about those decisions.  

We’ve seen particularly with schools that the decision has been taken to close in the regions in and close to the red zone.  I worry that with that specific red zone now identified (correctly), people in the huge amber region may take their eyes off the ball - there are amber warnings and amber warnings, this one is at the most severe end (just compare with those put out sometimes for 10cm of snow, for example) but that doesn’t seem to be being communicated.  

I think a large part of the amber region may have had insufficient timely warning - that may because of model uncertainty, and uncertainty over a sting jet, but if some parts wake up tomorrow to a red warning, then there will be no time to ‘take action’.  We will see…

Might not be so critical with text, phone and email nowadays? Even if a red is issued this evening an email can be sent before the morning. 

[Man With Beard]

33 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest UKV maintains the theme of gusts widely in excess of 70mph+ over vast swathes of Southern England and South Wales.  Gusts in excess of 80mph around exposed coastlines;

I do wonder if there's enough there for a red warning on the south coast too, considering the 12Zs. Confidence increasing of 85mph gusts, maybe even more

[Jayces]

23 minutes ago, Cassivellaunus said:

Think met office have called this wrong, think all of south and south West and east should be red. If they change to red later tonight or tomorrow morning they have left it way to late. Even if we're talking 80mph gusts which is likely going to be a lower estimate. This is going to bring down many trees and debris on the roads and turn over lorries and vans. I can see many fatalities under trees on the roads and people should have been warned to stay in. So many people dismissing this as an average storm I feel sorry for all those working on roads tomorrow I would refuse to work if I was a driver. Hope I'm wrong

Comms always seems to be an issue in so many aspects of life. In this particular case I think from the Meto's point of view, their thinking is (and in speculating here) that they've given a very large amber warning, only one away from red and the associated text guidance is very clear what this means so people should heed this and take appropriate precautions.

Clearly some institutions are doing this, others not so much.

The thinking from the Meto beyond that is I imagine if things develop enough to warrant a red warning then they will give it. They don't want to water down the severity of this by giving it to early when it's not warranted, otherwise people will just ignore them.

I guess the Comms issue is the wider general public and expecting them to have noted the amber warning and therefore be monitoring for a potential red, most other than us enthusiasts here won't be doing that.

As others have said, that are stuck in a difficult place I think.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Jayces
Spelling

[swebby]

4 minutes ago, The4Seasons said:

This webcam is going to be an interesting view tomorrow morning for sure if you want to see huge waves. 

https://www.porthcawl-lifeboat.co.uk/live-streaming/

Plenty of good web cams in the Scilly isles.

e.g 

Tresco Cam | St Mary's Hall Hotel Isles of Scilly

STMARYSHALLHOTEL.CO.UK

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View over Porthmellon to the Island of Tresco. The RNLI George Cross flag can usually be seen over the lifeboat station, along with the lifeboat, the largest in the RNLI fleet, at it's mooring.

 

Peak winds there are around 7am, so around sunrise, so it may still be on the dark side depending on cloud cover.

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Without wishing to go too far off topic..... I think most of the tall buildings in the UK are built to a pretty good standard, the problem is many of them aren't maintained very well. We're unlikely to see a building blow over but if wind gets to anything that was added post-build, like a pitched roof, cladding, penthouse apartment plonked on the roof, then we may be in for some spectacular footage. 

The most dangerous element of wind storms is the force with which heavy projectiles picked up by gusts and then become missiles that can kill us, like falling masonry or cladding. 

I'm not sure the buildings themselves are in trouble, I hope not anyway, but what they do re bring strong gusts down from where the stronger winds are, to ground level. Lots of tall building have a wind tunnel effect, best avoided I would think, and not everyone knows where the bad winds normally are, unless it's their local area. That's where the issue is with high rises, and tomorrow's storm

[ChezWeather]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I do wonder if there's enough there for a red warning on the south coast too, considering the 12Zs. Confidence increasing of 85mph gusts, maybe even more

Would the fact that on the South Coast, the wind will be more of an offshore direction make any difference? 

[Eagle Eye]

6 minutes ago, seb said:

 

It’s not like school closures for snow are announced the day before in most cases…

Last time I saw that was in America and they trust the NOAA days before over there (at least quite a lot of places do)

[Skullzrulerz]

33 minutes ago, Midlander said:

Yeah it’s with in the 72mph contour line 

Do you have a link so i can look at other places please?