Storm Eunice - 18th February

[TwisterGirl81]

7 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

it should be text to every phone in times like this ...

I agree, they do in America and they certainly bloody did here for c*vid

Edited February 17, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[January Snowstorm]

All pretty normal in Cork.

Initial rain has cleared and we await Eunice

[GSP]

18 minutes ago, Just Before Dawn said:

I should probably go to bed given that I’m on call from 6am, but I’m hanging in there for what promises to be a shipping forecast for the ages.

You couldn’t jot them all down could you?

[Mapantz]

Whilst I agree with many points regarding the Met Office' warning system, I think it'd be best if we move on from that for now, and dissect the outcome after the results are in, so to speak.

I also recommend sending an email to the Met Office, raising these concerns. I bet there's thousands of folks who have moaned about it on various forums and other platforms, and I bet very few have actually bothered to contact them?! Always worth pursuing!

[Andy Pepler]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

That is a bloody great idea.

if thay can get covid country wide alert out ..thay can do the same with weather .... its not rocket science ..well maybe it is to those in westminster lolol

[Alexis]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That is a good point,..not everyone looks at the Meto warnings or they just brush the warnings off as if this is going to be a gentle breeze

the forecasts on the telly should mention the matrix more and what it means.

The matrix is a load of garbage though, dreamt up in some Monday morning management meeting.

The public wants concrete warnings and doesn't want to know about levels of confidence. They also don't care if 30cm of snow is less or more impactful than 70mph of wind.

[matty40s]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That is a bloody great idea.

It happens in most civilised countries...

[Pixel]

worth a bookmark 

Shipping forecast and gale warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Latest shipping forecasts for the next 24 hours. Contains gale warnings, wind direction, wind force, sea state, weather and visibility.

 

[Chris.R]

19 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Estimated storm centre, 51.45N/16.18W. 115kph winds in SW quadrant. Moving forward slightly north of east. 

I'm going to make a guess at landfall in Ireland.... Somewhere around Galway. 

My storm tracking maybe very rusty now so don't quote me on that lol

I like these coordinates, keep them going. Very useful.

[Man With Beard]

18 minutes ago, Downburst said:

But it’s not consistent to be frank. Most gust charts are max gust in 3hrs period. It has to be called out. I’m not taking away from the seriousness of the damage and mayhem this is likely to cause, but I’ve noticed folk seem to be taking gust charts as sustained wind forecast. It’s the world we live in I know.

 

This is a fair point - there will be areas with gusts consistently challenging 80mph over several hours, and others that may only have them for a short time.

I am starting to wonder, though, if GFS gust charts on Meteociel are not maximum gusts within the period. It looks very wrong that the SW gets leapfrogged from one frame to another.

[Nick F]

Yawn, the 18z UKV seems slow coming out tonight

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Stood outside, eerily calm. Gives me the shudders knowing that some of the surrounding trees may well be lost this time tomorrow. 

[StingJet]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I like these coordinates, keep them going. Very useful.

likewise

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Eunice is looking dam pretty ATM but evil looking at the same time with an eye wall trying to form.

 

[hotsummer]

Hi all, been quite some time since I posted. Mere observer! Posted on SE thread but here there seems to be a wider reach, and quite a lot of discussion re warnings. My view on this is…

For the SE I’m wondering why there appears to be only an amber warning for tomorrow despite apparent likely wind speeds?

I’d have thought with those speeds… 

- and a large and densely populated area

- a large (very) urban areas 

- and tall/densely packed buildings in parts creating increased local speeds with the fact there is a greater population ^

…would result in an increased risk of injury etc. More buildings to be damaged means greater risk of flying debris (notwithstanding garden items), and with more people meaning a higher chance of someone copping it. Or is it that the winds aren’t so likely to cause quite this despite the greater chance of something flying and hitting someone or a moving car etc. 

I see reasons for it in the SW. Looks very bad, but it’s hardly looking much less around the SE - the most densely populated part.

I’ve seen us with gusts of over 50mph and it’s been ok. I don’t know if it’ll get much over that. To me it seems it could be unlikely if I take warnings at face value. Public perception is key here I feel.

I can only assume it won’t be quite that bad on this basis. And seemingly this is the perception. This is hardly the amber first warning we’ve had for weather and the events have never posed much of an issue. So people get complacent with that level. 

Having just got in I saw numerous bins out on the paths and drives. Soon they’ll be parted from their owners. Park bins with some tied up bags next to them too, and a few very full but this isn’t too unusual with the local parish! Not only that but I’ve also seen someone on my Twitter feed wishing their SW followers luck for tomorrow seemingly unaware that we’ll have a little more than a breeze here! And with so much more around is this a good thing to have millions thinking? 

So yeah, it must be the risk isn’t great enough and it won’t be quite that bad?? 

Having read on here I get the feeling it will be bad, but then more officially less so! I’ve seen some charts posted looking lower in terms of max wind speed. 

[SnowBear]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I like these coordinates, keep them going. Very useful.

Just be aware it is estimated, unlike when they track hurricanes via flights through and via satellite data. So it's a bit more rough and ready but it's somewhere near I think

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Latest fax, 18z:

So when does it get that elongated shape?

[Andy Pepler]

bristol airport avation forcast  75kts ..

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Andy Pepler

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, SnowBear said:

Just be aware it is estimated, unlike when they track hurricanes via flights through and via satellite data. So it's a bit more rough and ready but it's somewhere near I think

Do they have flight data from a UK weather plain like the do in the states?

 

[SnowBear]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Do they have flight data from a UK weather plain like the do in the states?

 

No, we don't send recon flights into storms. 

[Mapantz]

Eunice is beginning to tickle my cups.. anemometer cups, that is..

[Saint coolio]

I don’t disbelieve the forecasts, but it’s incredible that at 23:59 it’s dead calm and in less than 7 hours we’re looking at 70mph gusts in south central

[DaveL]

Latest TAF for Heathrow: 10 am to 2 pm 45kt, gusts 60 kt (51 mph mean, 70 mph gusts).

Ouch.

[Downburst]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Eunice is looking dam pretty ATM but evil looking at the same time with an eye wall trying to form.

 

Eye wall? I’d refer to tropical cyclone’s and the completely different physic’s at work there. This is a storm created by cyclogenisis and has a total imbalance compared to a tropical cyclone. But we’ll leave the science out for tonight.

[Hammer]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Do they have flight data from a UK weather plain like the do in the states?

 

I am sure if UK public demands this in future it will happen. I can't think the spend would be warranted IMHO. But maybe my view is outdated. I would not be surprised.