Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[clark3r]

Looking like a standard uk hot spell now, unless we get late upgrades, looking like my location will hang on to the heat for Saturday day time, still think this weather is very well welcomed and a good start to summer 

[Frosty.]

 

 

 

Just had a butchers at the GEFS 0z regarding next week and I think I can safely say P12 is the winner!  

 

[Man With Beard]

Also my attention was drawn to very warm weather continuing through much of next week on the GFS 00Z, bar a "transition" day on Sunday. Not the extremes of this Friday (Saturday?), but mid 20s for many in England/Wales will be very seasonal.

Records looking less likely for the end of this week now, but while the 20C uppers line is banging at the UK's door, it's not something you'd want to rule out even at this stage. 32-34C probably the landing spot based upon current information.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Man With Beard

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Also my attention was drawn to very warm weather continuing through much of next week on the GFS 00Z, bar a "transition" day on Sunday. Not the extremes of this Friday (Saturday?), but mid 20s for many in England/Wales will be very seasonal.

Records looking less likely for the end of this week now, but while the 20C uppers line is banging at the UK's door, it's not something you'd want to rule out even at this stage. 32-34C probably the landing spot based upon current information.

Hows ecm looking tuesday through to saturday temp/rain wise?!!

[Captain Shortwave]

25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKV has a 32c, but all of the other main runs top out around 30c. Add a degree or two on and it’ll be around that. Think the crazy UKV run yesterday showing 36c was far too extreme!

Still questions with regards to how much heat holds on in the south on Saturday.

It seems to be dependent on how cleanly the hot air pushes northwards during Friday (Some of the lower maxima are timing it a little too late), there is still time for this to adjust to bring the 20c isotherm through southern Britain during Friday afternoon.

It does look like that the weekend will turn cooler with some rain moving south, the start of the following week looks decent though with the Atlantic ridge likely to extend across the U.K. for a time. That said another bout of cooler and mixed weather looks inevitable unless we can shift that amplified Atlantic ridge.

UKMO and ECM day 7

   

[NewEra21]

That's really not great imo, with the GFS op one of the warmer runs 850s wise after Fri/Sat

 

[minus10]

Well the 20 degree 850 still over far south on ecm 0z..

Heat just about hanging on for Saturday also in far south..

Still adjustments to come no doubt....

[Earthshine]

Next week looking pretty decent here.  Temperatures should generally reach or exceed 20°C which is about bang on average here.  Most importantly it's looking dry so plenty of comfortable weather!

[Roadrunner]

I love seeing records broken and all that extreme weather stuff but seeing as I'm playing golf Friday, Saturday and Sunday in Oxfordshire, hitting 30+ degrees each day wouldn't be pleasant at all! Decent enough temperatures forecast in my opinion however after the plume into the weekend for where I'll be and mainly dry too. Certainly no wash out. 

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM has a maximum for Friday and Saturday of 29c (Note that the maxima for Friday is a degree or so up on previous runs).

The GFS is 30c for Friday with widespread high 20s, and 28c for Saturday but the line is effectively the southern stretch of the M25.

GEM has a high of 30c towards areas favoured by south westerly winds (northern and eastern East Anglia and Lincolnshire), a high of 31c in the far south east though still very warm south of the wash roughly.

All these maxima may allow a couple of degrees leeway, so at the moment I would punt At 32c being reached in a few spots on Friday, Saturday could be good south of London, locations that will see some moderation in terms of the heat on Friday due to the south westerly breeze.

Edited June 13, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

As per usual ,models have downgraded the heat, just like they downgrade cold spells! .looks the briefest of plume events ,blink and you miss it scenario. At the moment the weekend looks rather wet....

[Frosty.]

The longer term ECMWF 0z ens mean / op have something in common.. …they are both poor for summer fans…  

 

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

As per usual ,models have downgraded the heat, just like they downgrade cold spells! .looks the briefest of plume events ,blink and you miss it scenario. At the moment the weekend looks rather wet....

I think we need to be careful, it’s been like a yo-yo the last 24-36hrs. Clearly with uppers exceeding 20C, even if for a short time there’s potential for low 30s at least, which is pretty good for mid June. Saturday still up for grabs….

[StretfordEnd1996]

23 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

As per usual ,models have downgraded the heat, just like they downgrade cold spells! .looks the briefest of plume events ,blink and you miss it scenario. At the moment the weekend looks rather wet....

In all fairness I think ever since this feature was being modelled it could of been described as 'the briefest of plume events' - unless I'm mistaken at no point have I ever seen it last longer than 24 hours or so so I'm not sure if we've seen much of a downgrade in that respect but I acknowledge the temperatures on the ground may not as high as they may have looked a few days ago (when there was a bit of talk of 34-36'C etc).

This is the GFS forecast temperatures for Friday showing south eastern areas perhaps just about scraping 30'C - I often think it underestimates these a bit so perhaps give it 31-32'C

The lower ground temps are as a consequence of slightly lower uppers than what we saw a day or two ago

 

But I don't imagine there's two many heat lovers who would be very disappointed at temperatures of 24-32'C widely (north to south) 

As I said a slight slight downgrade on ground temps by 1-3'C this morning if you want to call it a downgrade but the fact of the matter is we're still on course for a day or so of very warm or hot temperatures for most on Friday - at no point was it ever supposed to last much longer than a day or so 

 

Let's also not get carried away - it's mid June, not late July/early August - should this feature of happened then, then we may have been looking at temperatures widely well into the 30s.

Edited June 13, 2022 by StretfordEnd1996

[mb018538]

44 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

In all fairness I think ever since this feature was being modelled it could of been described as 'the briefest of plume events' - unless I'm mistaken at no point have I ever seen it last longer than 24 hours or so so I'm not sure if we've seen much of a downgrade in that respect but I acknowledge the temperatures on the ground may not as high as they may have looked a few days ago (when there was a bit of talk of 34-36'C etc).

This is the GFS forecast temperatures for Friday showing south eastern areas perhaps just about scraping 30'C - I often think it underestimates these a bit so perhaps give it 31-32'C

The lower ground temps are as a consequence of slightly lower uppers than what we saw a day or two ago

 

But I don't imagine there's two many heat lovers who would be very disappointed at temperatures of 24-32'C widely (north to south) 

As I said a slight slight downgrade on ground temps by 1-3'C this morning if you want to call it a downgrade but the fact of the matter is we're still on course for a day or so of very warm or hot temperatures for most on Friday - at no point was it ever supposed to last much longer than a day or so 

 

Let's also not get carried away - it's mid June, not late July/early August - should this feature of happened then, then we may have been looking at temperatures widely well into the 30s.

That chart you have posted is from 1pm as well....daytime maxima are usually around 3-4pm. I'd still expect that given SSTs are above average and the ground is very dry in the SE that we will see 32c somewhere. 

UKV still has 32c:



Temps up around 34-35c look like they've certainly gone off the table. 32c is still mighty impressive though, especially coming off 25c Tuesday, 26-27c Wednesday, and perhaps 27-28c Thursday. A very fine summer week that was most unexpected around the turn of the month.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS Friday and Saturday;

 

Same as the 00z for Friday, 30c in London but generally add a degree or so on to these.

 

Low thirties widely for Saturday, the frontal boundary clearly marked and very wet with the front tending to stall rather than push south. The low and subsequent fronts slowly clear east on Sunday.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

GFS Friday and Saturday;

 

Same as the 00z for Friday, 30c in London but generally add a degree or so on to these.

 

Low thirties widely for Saturday, the frontal boundary clearly marked and very wet with the front tending to stall rather than push south. The low and subsequent fronts slowly clear east on Sunday.

Is that an upgrade for saturday i see with higher temps further north?!!midlands at 27 or 28 degrees compared to 18 on the 00z?!

[mb018538]

6z again holding out at only 30c max:



The only reason I can think that it's holding back a bit is that the flow isn't quite a straight southerly. There's a little bit of a SW component which is just knocking a few degrees off the absolute maximum:

[StormChaseUK]

06z bringing back the contrast

 

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

GFS Friday and Saturday;

 

Same as the 00z for Friday, 30c in London but generally add a degree or so on to these.

 

Low thirties widely for Saturday, the frontal boundary clearly marked and very wet with the front tending to stall rather than push south. The low and subsequent fronts slowly clear east on Sunday.

Spot the front. No prizes! Anything south of this staying very warm or very hot.

[StormChaseUK]

Will there be a Hollywood blockbuster sequel.   TopPlume 2 

 

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by StormChaseUK

[minus10]

24 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is that an upgrade for saturday i see with higher temps further north?!!midlands at 27 or 28 degrees compared to 18 on the 00z?!

I reckon that you may see temps a bit higher than forecast as dont forget this time of year is when the sun is at its strongest...highest amount of insolation...could be wrong but its a fair chance i think...

[Scorcher]

People are reading too much into the temperatures showing from run to run. Almost always in these setups I find temperatures go higher than initially predicted.

Interesting to see things beginning to correct north for Saturday as well- the heat is definitely clinging on further north than it was on the previous run. It's not going to take much of an adjustment for most of England to have another hot day on Saturday. Friday now looks like a nailed on hot day (27-32C) for most of England.

[Paul]

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[bluearmy]

Still no compelling evidence to call Saturday/Sunday 

also, no strong steer on whether the upper trough will verify middle next week as far south as recently modelled on the ens means. 
 

hence, we’re all here !