April 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.2C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Today could be the first pause in the rise.

[damianslaw]

April 2022 likely to be a much warmer version of 2021, both very dry and settled and very sunny.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.3C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Should be a little decline this week so likely to end up near average.

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 24th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.4c on the =24th*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 9.3C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 24.1mm 43% of the monthly average.

Looking like Sheffield will finish around 9C to 9.2C so basically average.

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 25th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.4c on the =24th & 25th*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[LetItSnow!]

Some nice mild days coming but also probably some quite chilly nights... I don't see it moving much from here, perhaps slightly below. I feel it will probably end up in the upper 8s or very low 9s - rather mild but unexceptional (might even come in slightly below the 1991-2020 average). The thing that will make this April memorable is its lack of meaningful rainfall for many places, the third in a row.

[damianslaw]

April fast becoming the dry season. It's not a month synonymous with rain, the adage April showers being apt in that what precipitation often falls is light and sporadic in nature. Correct if wrong but the last notably wet one was probably 10 years ago now in 2012.

Edited April 26, 2022 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

If we finished at 30.0 mm, the three year April total (2020,21,22) would be 80.7 mm which ranks first for low three-year April totals (1766 to present), second would then be 1785-87 (80.8 mm). Third would become 1956-58 at 83.4 mm. Will attach a graph showing trends for this three-April dry spell tracker.  

___ <<< GRAPH: THREE-YEAR TOTAL APRIL RAINFALLS (PRC) EWP SERIES 1766 TO 2022 >>> ___

Edited April 26, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

Not expecting any change in the days ahead, indeed a possible drop, temps fairly suppressed under a chilly air source and cloud. Cold at night in any breaks. A possible finish in the 8s could be on the cards with downward adjustment still a good 2.5 degrees or so warmer than last April. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 9.3C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

April fast becoming the dry season. It's not a month synonymous with rain, the adage April showers being apt in that what precipitation often falls is light and sporadic in nature. Correct if wrong but the last notably wet one was probably 10 years ago now in 2012.

2018 was the last wet one here with 107.8mm so four years ago.

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 26th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.4c on the =24th, 25th & 26th*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[Methuselah]

Depending upon just how 'warm' Saturday is, I'd guess at a provisional 9.3C finish. Only for my guess of 9.2 to be snatched away by a downward correction!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.2C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Looking like a 9.1C to 9.3C finish for us.

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 27th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.4c on the =24th, 25th,  26th & 27th*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[Don]

Another above average month in the bag!

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Another above average month in the bag!

Long run of them now, think the last colder than average month was May 21 correct if wrong..

[Don]

41 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Long run of them now, think the last colder than average month was May 21 correct if wrong..

August 2021 was colder than  recent averages and bang on 61-90 at 15.8C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.1C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 24.1mm 43% of the monthly average.

Looks like a 9.2 finish for us so basically average month but a dry one..

[Roger J Smith]

I can update today ...

 

9.3c to the 28th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

0.4 c above the 91 to 20 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.4c on the =24th, 25th,  26th & 27th
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

[damianslaw]

Expecting a finish between 8.9 and 9.2 degrees depending on the extent of any downward adjustments. Outside chance could be as low as 8.8 degrees especially given there have been plenty of chilly ir cold nights this April and some of the returning CET has been a bit suspect, just like January.. 8.8 degrees would be just below the 91-20 average. The 61-90 average seems dated now especially with April which has seen very marked warming in last 30 years, possibly the largest difference if all months 61-90 and 91-20 mean. Correct if wrong.

Edited April 29, 2022 by damianslaw

[LetItSnow!]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Expecting a finish between 8.9 and 9.2 degrees depending on the extent of any downward adjustments. Outside chance could be as low as 8.8 degrees especially given there have been plenty of chilly ir cold nights this April and some of the returning CET has been a bit suspect, just like January.. 8.8 degrees would be just below the 91-20 average. The 61-90 average seems dated now especially with April which has seen very marked warming in last 30 years, possibly the largest difference if all months 61-90 and 91-20 mean. Correct if wrong.

Met Office running at 9.3 and Metcheck at 8.85 - I often use a mean between the two to gage where the month, that brings us to about 9.2 currently. Maybe another drop to 9.1 tomorrow, then perhaps finishing on 9.0. Then corrections could land it anywhere where you said really. Perhaps indicative of my age but apart from the dryness it's felt normal to me - cold start, warm spell over easter then colder again (though it's been especially cool here in the east so perhaps I'm biased). 

[Summer8906]

On 28/04/2022 at 23:31, Don said:

August 2021 was colder than  recent averages and bang on 61-90 at 15.8C.

Shows how strongly averages can be influenced by short bursts of more extreme weather - the overall impression of July 2021 was definitely a cool, cloudy and damp month yet around a week of intense humid and rather uncomfortable heat doubtless lifted the temp above average. Sadly a common character of modern summer months, mostly cool, cloudy and damp and the one break we do get from the weather is almost too hot and humid. August 2020 is another example - in fact summers 2019 and 2020 as a whole very much had this sort of character - cool and cloudy with a few short bursts of intense and humid heat.

August 2021 more or less completely lacked heat though - IIRC the absolute max was very low, and I'm not sure we had a single day with widespread 25C+ temps - so no surprises to see that one wasn't above average.

Edited April 30, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 26/04/2022 at 18:04, damianslaw said:

April fast becoming the dry season. It's not a month synonymous with rain, the adage April showers being apt in that what precipitation often falls is light and sporadic in nature. Correct if wrong but the last notably wet one was probably 10 years ago now in 2012.

Indeed - our climate seems to be becoming quite sharply seasonal, with dry, sunny, mild-to-warm springs (particularly mid March to late April; early March and May are less reliable), cloudy, changeable and often cool by day summers, cloudy autumns (but with inconsistent rainfall) and mild winters.

April has now, I believe, been drier and sunnier than average times 11 times out of 16 since 2007 (2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022).

Contrast that to July and August which have been persistently cloudier than average over the same time frame. IIRC the only sunnier than average Julys in this timeframe have been 2013, 2014 and 2018 - and only 2016 in August (and then only very marginally). So meterological summer seems to be rapidly becoming a rather cloudy, changeable season - it seems unwise to expect prolonged settled weather in July or August. I wonder if UK tourism will take this on board and encourage overseas visitors to focus on late March, April and September as the more reliable months for weather?

Edited April 30, 2022 by Summer8906

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.1C +0.3C above normal. Rainfall 24.1mm 43% of the monthly average.

Looking like a 9.2C finish for the month so average would be take on it.