April 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

9.3c to the 29th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.4c on the 24th, 25th, 26th & 27th
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

[richie3846]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Indeed - our climate seems to be becoming quite sharply seasonal, with dry, sunny, mild-to-warm springs (particularly mid March to late April; early March and May are less reliable), cloudy, changeable and often cool by day summers, cloudy autumns (but with inconsistent rainfall) and mild winters.

April has now, I believe, been drier and sunnier than average times 11 times out of 16 since 2007 (2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022).

Contrast that to July and August which have been persistently cloudier than average over the same time frame. IIRC the only sunnier than average Julys in this timeframe have been 2013, 2014 and 2018 - and only 2016 in August (and then only very marginally). So meterological summer seems to be rapidly becoming a rather cloudy, changeable season - it seems unwise to expect prolonged settled weather in July or August. I wonder if UK tourism will take this on board and encourage overseas visitors to focus on late March, April and September as the more reliable months for weather?

It's high time the English and Welsh schools moved the holidays forward a whole month. The decline in August is so marked, and with hot bursts most likely in July, the kids can't concentrate at the end of a hot summer term. 

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

It's high time the English and Welsh schools moved the holidays forward a whole month. The decline in August is so marked, and with hot bursts most likely in July, the kids can't concentrate at the end of a hot summer term. 

Or perhaps split the holidays, half in early-mid July and half in September - as Aug to Dec would be a long drag without a proper break.

[Earthshine]

Forecasts for a colder than average April were a complete bust then.  Even May is looking pretty decent now.

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Indeed - our climate seems to be becoming quite sharply seasonal, with dry, sunny, mild-to-warm springs (particularly mid March to late April; early March and May are less reliable), cloudy, changeable and often cool by day summers, cloudy autumns (but with inconsistent rainfall) and mild winters.

April has now, I believe, been drier and sunnier than average times 11 times out of 16 since 2007 (2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022).

Contrast that to July and August which have been persistently cloudier than average over the same time frame. IIRC the only sunnier than average Julys in this timeframe have been 2013, 2014 and 2018 - and only 2016 in August (and then only very marginally). So meterological summer seems to be rapidly becoming a rather cloudy, changeable season - it seems unwise to expect prolonged settled weather in July or August. I wonder if UK tourism will take this on board and encourage overseas visitors to focus on late March, April and September as the more reliable months for weather?

Warmer air holds more moisture a warming climate therefore more likely to result in warmer wetter summers than dry I would say. 

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, richie3846 said:

It's high time the English and Welsh schools moved the holidays forward a whole month. The decline in August is so marked, and with hot bursts most likely in July, the kids can't concentrate at the end of a hot summer term. 

Indeed the Scots have it right breaking up early July. By late August we are rapidly losing light, indeed mid April is just as light. The holidays were reserved for August so children could help with the harvest..  bygone era and not relevant nowadays. It's also a long drag to mid to late July, an earlier start would even out the year. Most exams are finished by late June and as a child I always remember July being a time when less was taught it seems and you were always tired and restless due to the light nights and warm weather. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 9.2C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall 27.6mm 49.2% of the monthly average.

[BruenSryan]

Final April 2022 CET came out at 9.1C, the 8th consecutive above average month. 

1.1C above 61-90

0.6C above 81-10

0.1C above 91-20

Certainly far from the "coolest/coldest April in quite a few years possibly on the way" that was looking incredibly unlikely anyway from the start after April 2021.

Edited May 1, 2022 by BruenSryan

[Summer8906]

15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Warmer air holds more moisture a warming climate therefore more likely to result in warmer wetter summers than dry I would say. 

It's an interesting one because it also depends on the synoptics; the tendency of the summers of the past 15 years to be cloudy and changeable seems to be more down to the synoptics than anything else.

I guess if we have damp Atlantic air then the effect of warming will indeed be to make it wetter, but the increased cloud is likely to lead to cooler daytime temps combined with warmer nights - which is a pattern which has been prevalent since 2007. On the other hand, if the "natural" synoptic pattern of summer is anticyclonic, then a warming climate will just make it hotter. We see that in recent Aprils.

Something - not sure if it is an effect of climate change - is causing an increased tendency for anticyclonic weather in the second half of March and in April and a low-latitude jetstream in the summer, leading to warmer sunnier late March-April periods but cloudier damper summers. Certainly prolonged anticyclonic spells in July and August of the sort common in the late 1980s to the mid 2000s are decidedly rare these days. The last long anticyclonic spell in August was in 2003, while in the preceding years they occurred in 1976, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1995 and 1998.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Summer8906

[Earthshine]

April continuing the theme of significantly warmer than average maximum CET with 14.0°C, over 2°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

It's an interesting one because it also depends on the synoptics; the tendency of the summers of the past 15 years to be cloudy and changeable seems to be more down to the synoptics than anything else.

I guess if we have damp Atlantic air then the effect of warming will indeed be to make it wetter, but the increased cloud is likely to lead to cooler daytime temps combined with warmer nights - which is a pattern which has been prevalent since 2007. On the other hand, if the "natural" synoptic pattern of summer is anticyclonic, then a warming climate will just make it hotter. We see that in recent Aprils.

Something - not sure if it is an effect of climate change - is causing an increased tendency for anticyclonic weather in the second half of March and in April and a low-latitude jetstream in the summer, leading to warmer sunnier late March-April periods but cloudier damper summers. Certainly prolonged anticyclonic spells in July and August of the sort common in the late 1980s to the mid 2000s are decidedly rare these days. The last long anticyclonic spell in August was in 2003, while in the preceding years they occurred in 1976, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1995 and 1998.

Perhaps the quieter second half to March through to late April tendency is down to quick PV collapse, increased final early warnings in the strat leading to more blocked episodes. This year we were forecast a late warming yet we had a final one earlier and much of April has seen yet again a dead Atlantic. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP likely finished around 32 mm. Will confirm tomorrow from tracker. Preliminary scoring was posted a few days ago. Next update to that would be on the 5th when a more precise EWP value is posted. 

Only one forecast was below this outcome and it was the probable monthly winner. 

Okay, now on to posting a preliminary CET scoring teaser in advance of the official tables. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

April continuing the theme of significantly warmer than average maximum CET with 14.0°C, over 2°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average.

Well of course it’s going to be significantly warmer than the old stat with all the global warming taking place!!

[Roger J Smith]

The APR 2022 CET value is shown as 9.1 in the updated tables (from 9.05). 

I have gone all out and posted the whole table of entries edited to show CET scoring in order.

This will be subject to confirmation by J10 and for the purposes of determining ranks for "best combined" late penalties drop ranks by one per day which is why a couple of these may appear to be out of scoring order. They are marked with an asterisk in the rank column. Otherwise, order of entry for on-time forecasts determines any tie breakers. 

EWP forecasts are also shown and ranked, and the top (16) "best combined" are identified. 

 

Rank _ CET _ EWP __ Forecaster (order of entry) _ EWP rank _ Best combined info

 

_01 __ 9.1 __ 67.0 _ SteveB ( 02 ) __________________ (19th EWP) 1 + 19 = 20 _ 3rd best combined (t)

_02 __ 9.1 __ 55.0 _ The PIT ( 24 ) _________________ best combined (2nd & 5th EWP) =7

_03 __ 9.2 __ 75.0 _ EdStone ( 31 ) ________________ (26th EWP) 3 + 26 = 29 _ 7th best combined

_04 __ 9.0 __ 82.0 _ Stationary Front ( 35 ) ________ (40th EWP) 4 + 40 = 44 _ 16th best combined (t)

_05 __ 9.2 __ 60.1 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 49 ) __ (13th EWP) 5 + 13 = 18 _ 2nd best combined

_06 __ 9.3 __ 79.0 _ seaside60 ( 21 ) ______________ (31st EWP) 6 + 31 = 37 _ 10th best combined (t)

_07 __ 8.9 __ 81.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 42 ) ___________ (37th EWP) 7 + 37 = 44 _ 16th best combined (t)

_08 __ 8.9 __ 83.0 _ February1978 ( 53 ) __________(41st EWP)

_(xx)__8.9 __ 63.2 __ 1991-2020 average__________

_09 __ 9.4 __ ------ _ Richie3846 ( 15 ) ______________

_10 __ 9.4 __ 70.0 _ Earthshine ( 36 ) ______________ (22nd EWP) 10 + 22 = 32 _ 9th best combined

_11 __ 8.8 _110.0 __ summer blizzard ( 39 ) _______(47th EWP)

_12 __ 8.8 __ 55.0 __ Norrance ( 52 ) ______________ (8th EWP) 12+8 = 20 _ 3rd best combined (t)

_13 __ 9.4 __ 65.0 _ J 10 ( 54 ) _____________________ (18th EWP) 13 +18 = 31 _ 8th best combined

_14 __ 9.5 __ 71.0 _ snowray ( 04 ) ________________ (23rd EWP) 14 + 23 = 37 _ 10th best combined (t)

_15 __ 8.7 __ 60.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 12 ) _______ (11th EWP) 15 + 11 = 26 _ 5th best combined

_16 __ 8.7 __ 85.0 _ stargazer ( 22 ) _______________ (42nd EWP)

_17 __ 8.7 __ ----- _ damianslaw ( 44 ) _____________

_18 __ 9.6 __ 67.0 _ feb1991blizzard ( 08 ) _________ (20th EWP) 18 + 20 =38 _12th best combined (t)

_19*__ 8.7 __ ----- _ Duncan McAlister ( L1-1 ) ______

_20 __ 8.6 __ ----- _ Mark Bayley ( 30 ) ______________

_21 __ 8.6 __ 77.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 45 ) _________ (28th EWP)

_22 __ 8.5 __ 80.0 _ Freeze ( 26 ) ___________________ (34th EWP)

_23 __ 8.5 __ 85.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 28 ) _________________ (43rd EWP)

_(xx)__8.5 __ 64.8 __ 1981-2010 average _____________

_24 __ 8.4 __ 55.0 _ Frigid ( 01 ) ____________________ (3rd EWP) 24+3 = 27 _ 6th best combined

_25 __ 8.4 __ 78.0 _ davehsug ( 46 ) ________________(30th EWP)

_(xx)__ 8.4 __ 75.0 _ consensus ____________________

_26 __ 8.3 __ 65.0 _ virtualsphere ( 11 ) _____________ (16th EWP) _ 16 +26 =42 _15th best combined

_27 __ 8.3 __ ----- _ Summer Sun ( 17 ) ______________

_28 __ 8.3 __ 65.0 _ stewfox ( 27 ) ___________________ (17th EWP)

_29 __ 8.3 __ 60.0 _ weather-history ( 29 ) ___________ (12th EWP) _ 29 +12 = 41 _14th best combined

_30 __ 8.3 __ 91.0 _ Wold Topper ( 47 ) ______________ (45th EWP)

_31 __10.0__ 72.0 _ Weather26 ( 09 ) ________________ (24th EWP)

_32 __ 8.2 __ 69.0 _ Reef ( 13 ) _______________________ (21st EWP)

_33 __ 8.2 __ 79.0 _ Mulzy ( 40 ) ______________________ (32nd EWP)

_34 __ 8.1 __ 64.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 18 ) ___________(15th EWP)

_35 __10.1__ 79.0 _ rwtwm ( 43 ) _____________________ (33rd EWP)

_36 __10.2__ 59.4 _ Bobd29 ( 03 ) ____________________ (9th EWP)

_37 __ 8.0 __ 22.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 06 ) ______________ (1st EWP) _ 37 +1 = 38 _ 12th best combined (t)

_38 __ 8.0 _ 114.0 _ noname_weather ( 37 ) __________(49th EWP)

_39 __ 8.0 __ 81.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 41 ) ___________(36th EWP)

_40 __ 7.9 __ 90.0 _ Summer18 ( 14 ) _________________(44th EWP)

_41 __10.4__ 61.2 _ Polar Gael ( 05 ) __________________ (14th EWP)

_42 __ 7.8 __ 60.0 _ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 10 ) ___(10th EWP)

_43 __ 7.8 __ 82.0 _ coldest winter ( 33 ) _______________(39th EWP)

_44 __ 7.8 __ 77.0 _ Jeff C ( 50 ) _________________________ (29th EWP)

_45 __ 7.8 __ ----- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 56 ) ___________

_46 __ 7.7 __ 54.0 _ Pegg24 ( 20 ) _______________________ (2nd EWP)

_47 __ 7.7 __ 77.0 _ jonboy ( 32 ) _______________________ (27th EWP)

_48 __ 7.7 __ 55.0 _ NeilN ( 34 ) ________________________ (7th EWP)

_49 __ 7.7 __ 80.0 _ Don ( 51 ) __________________________ (35th EWP)

_50 __ 7.6 _102.0_ Godber1 ( 48 ) ______________________(46th EWP)

_51 __ 7.5 _ 130.0 _ summer8906 ( 16 ) _________________(50th EWP)

_52 __ 7.5 __ 55.0 _ syed2878 ( 25 ) _____________________ (6th EWP)

_53*__7.6 __ 80.0 _ daniel* (  L2-1 ) ____________________ (38th EWP)

_54 __ 7.2 _ 113.0 _ LetItSnow! ( 19 ) ___________________(48th EWP)

_55 __ 6.9 __ 73.3 _ Roger J Smith ( 23 ) _________________ (25th EWP)

_56 __ 6.7 __ ----- _ Kentish Man ( 55 ) ___________________

_57 __ 5.4 __ 55.0 _ SLEETY ( 07 ) ________________________ (4th EWP)

_58 __ 4.4 _800.0 _ Thundershine ( 38 ) _________________(51st EWP)

 

 

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Well of course it’s going to be significantly warmer than the old stat with all the global warming taking place!!

In an earlier post I said use of the 61-90 average mean seems wrong to me, given how much milder more recent mean averages are 91-20 average, even 81-10 average, I would much sooner we used either of those. With this in mind April 2022 was only ever so slightly above average.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 9.1c April 2022 shares the same mean CET with April's:

1803

1825

1896

1995

2019

 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ended up on 31 mm. No point in making two sets of small revisions in the posted scoring, one today and one on the 5th, so we can review the exact number for April on the 5th and the more precise scoring adjustments (which will very likely be either nil or insignificant). 

The annual scoring update was posted almost a week ago in the thread. Will repeat it on the 5th with any minor adjustments required then. 

If you missed it, scroll back a couple of pages. But the main story is that the annual race tightened up considerably as quite a few of the previously top scoring forecasters had lower scores in April, allowing various people who predicted a dry April to catch up at least part way. 

[Don]

On 30/04/2022 at 13:48, Earthshine said:

Forecasts for a colder than average April were a complete bust then.  Even May is looking pretty decent now.

At the end of March, the chance of a colder than average month to follow looked realistic, albeit not necessarily exceptionally so or on a par with last year.  I believed April had the strongest chance of  being the first colder than average month of 2022, hence why I went for a CET of 7.7C.  However, yes it was a total bust!!

Agreed, May is also looking to be another warmer than average month.

Edited May 2, 2022 by Don

[Greyhound81]

On 01/05/2022 at 10:02, BruenSryan said:

Final April 2022 CET came out at 9.1C, the 8th consecutive above average month. 

1.1C above 61-90

0.6C above 81-10

0.1C above 91-20

Certainly far from the "coolest/coldest April in quite a few years possibly on the way" that was looking incredibly unlikely anyway from the start after April 2021.

What is the record for consecutive months above average?  A below average month will happen at some point, so could this mean a below average summer could be on the cards?

[LetItSnow!]

6 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

What is the record for consecutive months above average?  A below average month will happen at some point, so could this mean a below average summer could be on the cards?

I'm confident that the record is April 1947 to May 1948, each of those months were above average, some notably so: August 1947 and March 1948 are amongst some of the warmest respective months on record.

[summer blizzard]

9 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I'm confident that the record is April 1947 to May 1948, each of those months were above average, some notably so: August 1947 and March 1948 are amongst some of the warmest respective months on record.

Have a feeling it was actually around the 04-05 period. 

[BruenSryan]

Against the 81-10 average, the longest run of consecutive months above average (+0.1C or greater) I know of is September 2006 to June 2007 and 4 of those were over 2C above average too.

Don't have anomalies against 61-90 or 91-20 average for every month since 1659 so unsure about those. 91-20 probably similar to 81-10 I'd have thought but to April 2007 instead of June. 61-90 might have been a different period.

CET monthly anomalies from 81-10.xlsxCET monthly anomalies from 81-10.xlsx

[LetItSnow!]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Have a feeling it was actually around the 04-05 period. 

Using the all time average I believe the correct answer is actually April 2006 to June 2007

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP has come in at 31.3 mm. The only changes to earlier posted scoring would be small differentials in average errors. All but one April forecaster has a slightly reduced error (by 1.3 mm) from that provisional so if you've played four months, your average error will drop by 1.3 divided by five, or 0.26 mm. Here's that table with the average errors adjusted. There were no changes to any points scoring. 

 

___ << Updated Scoring for the EWP contest (Dec 2021 to April 2022) >> ___

Rank (prev)_ Forecaster __ Points ___ Avg err, rank (prev) __ Monthly ranks __ Apr score

01_(01)___ Freeze _________ 37.55 ____ 24.06 mm (01) (01) ___ 03 05 02 22 34 ___ 3.19 

02_(02)___ Polar Gael _____ 34.22 ____ 33.12 mm (10) (17) ___ 09 48 04 10 14 ___ 7.31    

03_(03)___ Bobd29 ________33.92 ____ 28.38 mm (03) (03) ___ 43 15 07 16 09 ___ 8.35

04_(11)___ The PIT ________ 33.10 ____ 27.62 mm (02) (04) ___ 52 01 26 14 05 ___ 9.34

05_(10)__ DiagonalRedLine _31.85 ____ 32.62 mm (05) (15) ___ 56 04 08 24 11 ___ 8.02

06_(06)___ Feb91Blizzard _ 31.31 ____ 33.86 mm (t06)(09) ___ 04 22 19 34 20 ___ 6.14 

07_(21)___ Neil N _________ 30.56 ____ 33.22 mm (09) (24) ___ 53 13 24 15 07 ___ 9.10 

08_(04)___Roger J Smith __ 30.55 ____ 30.66 mm (04) (02) ___ 21 03 36 21 25 ___ 5.01

09_(14)___dancerwithwings _29.68 ____ 34.22 mm (14) (20)___ 20 23 11 39 15 ___ 7.10     

10_(15)___ virtualsphere __ 29.34 ____ 33.22 mm (11) (12) ___ 31 11 45 12 16 ___ 6.88      

 

11_(09)___ Weather26 ____ 29.32 ____ 32.94 mm (08) (08) ___ 24 26 20 17 24 ___ 5.22 

12_(07)___ davehsug ______ 29.09 ____ 37.42 mm (t21)(22)___ 06 43 23 09 30 ___ 3.99       

13_(12)___ EdStone _______ 28.54 ____ 34.82 mm (16) (11) ___ 18 27 25 18 26 ___ 4.80     

14_(27)___ SLEETY_________ 28.26 ____ 38.42 mm (t24)(33) ___ 13 20 32 48 04 ___ 9.46         

15_(08)___ Mulzy __________ 28.13 ____ 35.02 mm (17) (10) ___ 19 25 43 t01 32 ___ 3.67 

16_(05)___ daniel* ________ 27.83 ____ 32.82 mm (t06)(05) ___ 30 07 42 05 38*___ 2.35 

17_(22)___ J 10 ____________ 27.76 ____ 34.26 mm (15) (19) ___ 26 28 14 35 18 ___ 6.64     

18_(13)___ Jeff C __________ 26.96 ____ 36.42 mm (19) (18) ___ 34 18 09 33 29 ___ 4.36     

t19_(31)___Frigid __________ 26.41 ____ 39.10 mm (26) (37) ___ 48 46 03 27 03 ___ 9.58         

t19_(23)___Reef ___________ 26.41 ____ 36.46 mm (20) (26) ___ 22 29 50 06 21 ___ 5.86    

 

21_(33)___ Norrance ______ 25.84 ____ 35.82 mm (18) (30) ___ 36 24 46 19 08 ___ 8.98    

22_(19)___ Mr Maunder ___24.46 ____ 34.02 mm (13) (06) ___ 39 02 35 25 37^___ 2.47     

23_(17)___ stargazer _____ 23.99 ____ 37.42 mm (t21) (14) ___ 40 19 16 23 42 ___ 1.62       

24_(25)___ seaside60 _____ 23.60 ____ 37.72 mm (23) (23) ___ 01 21 34 ---- 31 ___ 3.79       

t25_(20)___DR(S)NO ______ 23.28 ____ 38.42 mm (t24)(20)___ 35 38 06 20 43 ___ 1.50      

t25_(16)___Godber 1 _____ 23.28 ____ 40.66 mm (31) (13) ___ 16 06 28 46 46 ___ 0.90            

27_(18)___summer blizzard__23.07 ____ 44.62 mm (36) (25) ___ 54 14 33 t01 47___ 0.72               

28_(34)___ stewfox ________ 22.79 ____ 45.06 mm (t37)(42)___ 33 12 37 49 17 ___ 6.76               

29_(38)___weather-history_ 22.52 ____ 39.82 mm (28) (34) ___ 47 31 51 13 12 ___ 7.90         

30_(24)___ February1978 _ 22.25 ____ 39.66 mm (27) (27) ___ 08 30 21 44 41 ___ 1.80         

 

31_(47)___ syed2878 ______ 22.23 ____ 45.56 mm (40) (44) ___ 25 49 40 32 06 ___ 9.22                   

32_(26)___ Don ____________22.18 ____ 41.86 mm (33) (31) ___ 27 44 17 26 35 ___ 3.07                 

33_(42)__ProlongedSnowLover_21.08 ___ 41.68 mm (32) (39) ___ 23 39 54 28 13 ___ 7.52                   

34_(29)___noname_weather_18.43 ____ 46.82 mm (42) (29) ___ 32 08 44 37 49 ___ 0.36                          

35_(28)___ summer8906 __18.31 ____ 54.87 mm (48) (35) ___ ---- 42 13 08 50 ___ 0.18                                   

36_(37)___ rwtwm _________ 18.24 ____ 45.82 mm (41) (40) ___ 50 41 05 40 33 ___ 3.55                      

t37_(44)___jonboy _________ 17.78 ____ 45.42 mm (39) (40) ___ 38 32 30 45 27 ___ 4.59                    

t37_(53)__I Rem Atlantic 252_17.78 ____ 54.54 mm (47) (48) ___ 49 47 18 50 10 ___ 8.14                               

39_(30)___ LetItSnow! _____ 17.75 ____ 43.36 mm (35) (07) ___ 29 37 ---- 04 48 ___ 0.54                     

40_(45)___Emmett Garland_17.57____ 48.22 mm (43) (43) ___ 15 45 48 36 28 ___ 4.48                         

 

41_(39)___MidlandsIceAge_ 17.12 ____ 51.74 mm (45) (46) ___ 05 35 47 51 36^___ 2.59                               

42_(32)___ Kasim Awan ___ 16.68 ____ 37.25 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- 09 10 ---- ----- ___  - - -

43_(35)___ Leo97t _________ 15.94 ____ 33.70 mm (12) (16) ___ 41 36 01 ---- ---- ___  - - -     

44_(52)___ Steve B _________15.93 ____ 60.38 mm (50) (50) ___ 45 52 15 ---- 19 ___ 6.26                                         

45_(36)___BlastFromThePast _15.57 ____ 42.85 mm (34) (36) ___ 12 40 49 30 ---- ___ - - -                               

46_(41)___ summer18 _____15.34 ____ 56.62 mm (49) (47) ___ 17 51 29 42 44 ___ 1.26                                          

47_(43)___Stationary Front_15.15 ____ 45.06 mm (t37)(38)___ 44 34 38 31 40 ___ 2.07                                

48_(55)___ snowray ________14.82 ____ 49.32 mm (44) (45) ___ 51 17 55 47 23 ___ 5.42                                    

49_(40)___ stevew _________ 14.14 ____ 40.63 mm (29) (32) ___ 42 10 39 ---- ----___  - - -                            

50_(64)___ shillitocettwo ___ 13.85 ____ 53.82 mm (46) (49) ___ 55 50 52 41 01 ___10.00                                    

 

51_(46)___Durham Weather_13.04 ____ 23.55 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 27 11 ---- ___ - - -

52_(54)___ Coldest Winter__11.44 ____ 40.30 mm (30) (28) ___ 28 ---- 57 29 39 ___ 2.19                        

53_(48)___ John88b _______ 11.20 ____ 30.10 mm ( -- ) ___ 10 ---- 41 ---- ---- ___  - - -

54_(49)__Kirkcaldy Weather_10.76____15.75 mm ( -- ) ___ 46 ---- ---- 07 ---- ___ - - -

55_(50)___ Wold Topper ___10.96 _____ 30.10 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- ---- 03 45 ___ 1.08

56_(51)___ Mapantz ________ 9.82 _______ 3.60 mm ( -- ) ___ 02 ---- ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

57__(---) __ Pegg24 __________9.79 ______ 22.7 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- ---- ---- 02 ___ 9.79

58_(56)___ AWD ____________ 8.94 _______ 5.40 mm ( -- ) ___ 07 ---- ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

t59_(t57)__ legritter ________ 8.06 ______ 27.80 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 12 ---- ---- ___  - - -

t59_(t57)__ Booferking _____ 8.06 ________7.40 mm ( -- ) ___ 11 ---- ---- ---- ----___  - - -

 

61_(59)___ Typhoon John___ 7.70 ________ 8.60 mm ( -- ) ___ 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

62_(60)___Dunstable Snow_ 6.93 _______ 55.70 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- 16 ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

63_(61)___ Downburst ______ 6.02 ______ 36.20 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 22 ---- ---- ___  - - -

64_(68)___ Earthshine ______ 5.81 ______ 50.05 mm ( -- ) ___ 57 ---- ---- ---- 22 ___ 5.63

65_(62)___sukayuonsensnow __ 4.55 _____ 43.80 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 31 ---- ---- ___  - - -

66_(63)___ sundog __________ 4.31 ______ 67.75 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- 33 53 ---- ---- ___  - - -

67_(65)__ froze were the days_3.80______ 21.40 mm ( -- ) ___ 37 ---- ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

68_(66)___ thundershine___ 2.40 ______ 413.85 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- ---- 38 51 ___ 0.00

69_(67)___ DeepSnow ______ 1.40 _______ 39.00 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- ---- 43 ---- ___ - - -

70_(69)___Ross A Hemphill _ 0.06 _______ 61.40 mm ( -- ) ___ 58 ---- ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

 

71_(70)___ Stephen W ______ 0.05 _______ 65.80 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 56 ---- ---- ___  - - -

===========================================================

_ _ _ _ contest entries _ _ _ _ _ _ ____________________ ___ 58 52 57 51 51

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scoring for consensus and normals _ decimal rankings indicate relative position vs forecasters*

Ranks ______ Forecaster _____ Points ___ Avg error (ranks) _____ Monthly ranks ____________Apr score

 1.1 _(1.7)___ 1992-2021 avg __37.44 ___ 27.66 mm (2.1) (1.9) ___ 1.8 _19.8_17.3_15.7 14.1 __ 7.30

 1.1 _(1.7)___ 1991-2020 avg __37.42 ___ 27.97 mm (2.5) (1.9) ___ 1.8 _17.7_18.7_17.2 14.7 __ 7.15

 4.7 _(5.5)___ 1981-2010 avg __32.26 ___ 31.60 mm (4.5) (8.2) ___14.5 _17.2_23.7_25.5 15.8 __ 6.94

18.6_(19.7)__ consensus ______26.65 __ 36.22 mm (18.7)(18.8) __17.5 _22.0_28.0_25.5 26.0 __ 4.80

* e.g., 1.1 indicates between first and second rank, but closer to first than first, etc. 

(in fact the two recent normals are just about level with first place in the contest now)

=============================================================

 

Notes for April rankings: 

* daniel* loses two ranks due to 2d late penalty.

^ two others gain one rank relative to errors as a result.

 

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Spring 2022 (March-April) standings for EWP

Rank _Forecaster ____ Avg err (mm) ____ Points

_01 __ The Pit ________ 17.1 _____________ 16.74

_02 __ Neil N _________ 18.1 _____________ 16.22

_03 __ Polar Gael _____ 18.3 _____________ 15.46

_04 __ weather-history_19.6 ____________ 15.42

_05 __ BobD29 ________ 20.45 ___________ 15.27

_06 __ Norrance _______20.1 _____________15.00

_07 __ Reef ____________ 20.6 ____________ 14.63

_08 __ virtualsphere ___ 21.6 ____________ 14.60

_09 __ Frigid ____________ 24.6 ____________ 13.98

_10 __ Mulzy ___________ 24.1 ____________ 13.67

_11 __ DiagonalRedLine_24.6 ___________ 13.41

_12 __ syed2878 ________26.1 ____________ 12.90

_13 __ davehsug _______ 26.6 ____________ 12.34

_14 __ shillitocettwo ___ 23.9 _____________11.95

_15 __ Weather26 ______ 27.6 _____________11.94

_16 __ ProlongedSnowLover 26.65 __________ 11.83

_17 __ Daniel* _________ 25.6 _____________ 11.53

_18 __ Ed Stone ________ 30.6 _____________ 11.08

_19 __ Wold Topper ____ 30.1 _____________ 10.96

_20 __ Roger J Smith ____30.85 ____________ 10.86

_21 __ summer blizzard _39.6 ____________ 10.72

_22 __ Sleety ____________ 39.6 _____________ 10.06

_23 __ LetItSnow ________ 41.6 ______________ 9.92

_24 __ Pegg24 ___________ 22.7 ______________ 9.79 (Apr only)

_25 __ J10 ________________32.6 ______________ 9.71

_26 __ Feb91Blizzard ____33.6 ______________ 9.34

_27 __ dancerwithwings _35.1 ______________ 9.29

_28 __ freeze ____________ 34.6 _______________8.82

_29 __ summer8906 ____ 52.1 _______________8.74

_30 __ KirkcaldyWx ______ 2.7 ________________8.67 (Mar only)

_31 __ IrememberAtl252_52.1 ______________ 8.34

_32 __ Durham Weather_ 8.5 _______________ 7.94 (Mar only)

_33 __ Don _______________ 35.6 ______________ 7.87

_34 __ JeffC _______________38.1 ______________ 7.74

_35 __ Dr(S)No ___________ 36.6 ______________ 7.56

_36 __ Mr Maunder ______ 35.6 ______________ 7.48

_37 __ EmmettGarland ___39.6 ______________ 7.27

_38 __ Stewfox ____________53.1 ______________ 7.16

_39 __ Stargazer __________ 37.1 ______________ 7.13

_40 __ SteveB ______________35.7 ______________ 6.26 (Apr only)

_41 __ snowray ____________ 45.6 ______________ 6.22

_42 __ Coldest Winter _____ 38.6 ______________ 6.19

_43 __ Stationary Front ____ 39.1 ______________ 5.95

_44 __ Jonboy _______________ 45.6 ______________5.87

_45 __ Earthshine ___________38.7_______________5.63 (Apr only)

_46 __ rwtwm _______________ 42.6 ______________ 5.62

_47 __ BlastFromThePast ___ 25.5 ______________3.98 (Mar only)

_48 __ seaside60 ____________ 47.7 ______________3.79 (Apr only)

_49 __ February1978 ________ 46.6 ______________3.10

_50 __ summer18 ____________ 48.6 _____________ 3.09

_51 __ noname_weather _____ 58.6 _____________2.96

_52 __ MidlandsIceAge _______ 62.6 _____________2.67

_53 __ Thundershine _________ 35.5 _____________2.40 (Mar only)

_54 __ Godber1 _______________58.6 ______________1.90

_55 __ DeepSnow _____________45.5 _____________ 1.40 (Mar only)