Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

21 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Decided not to bother last night and stayed home. Tonight is looking more promising. Yesterday I had thought of heading to the south coast tonight but I believe that I would be best to head south but not that far. I don't want to end up to the south of where the storms fire. Thunderstorms will probably become a mass of thundery rain as they spread north into the Midlands and East Anglia and so I don't want to be too far north either. Current charts would suggest I want to probably position on the M1 somewhere near Bedford/Luton by evening and see what develops.

Sounds like you're in for a very stressful day models seems to be at odds as to the exact evolution and it could be that the very south coast get the brunt, or as you say it initiates over landmass and London / M4 see the best show.

M1 sounds a little too far north, I would posit Richmond Hill as a good spot this evening - wondering whether to venture too far myself but we have a great vista at two points near the A3 about 15 mins from here, or there’s a good spot at Loseley Park I often use with a cracking expanse of open sky down to the SE towards Gatwick.

Rain will be an issue tonight as will gusty winds, but it all sounds much better than the other week where the storms were far to fast moving and the strong breeze meant it was a struggle to get any footage from the direction the storms were coming in from.

I’m a little more optimistic about tonight now - despite the lack of a UKWW forecast and a poor showing on Ventusky for overnight - but I’m still a little worried the channel is going to “drain the battery” before we get to see anything significant

Edited June 4, 2022 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[camturbo]

Not sure if I will get anything maybe a few crumbs but I would still take that. Could be a wait and see to see where everything starts to fire up,hopefully 

[BrickFielder]

Tricky to forecast exactly what will happen and complicated conflicting indicators. There are a number of typical thunderstorm scenarios for the UK but todays has elements of typical scenarios yet is slightly different. Looking for upper air and mid layer air divergence can be a good sign of thunderstorms and frontal genesis. Whilst this is evident it is unlikely to be the main driver of storms today.

Most likely we are going to see surface based storms developing over parts of France late afternoon and these will trundle North eastwards and perhaps the south east of the UK. Temperatures in the UK will not be supportive of surface based storms generally and imported storms are likely to have anvils streaming ahead over the UK. 

There is another scenario at play where the plume destabilises as evening cooling aloft starts with initiation over Normandy and the channel islands and perhaps even the south of the UK. At some point storms are likely to be outflow dominant and less electrified (Just. heavy rain for some).

Most likely parts of the south will see storms and lightning tonight with further risks of convective activity tomorrow. A lot depends on what happens over France so the best forecasting is probably by radar and satellite watching.

[tomp456]

After yesterday's damp squib, I am expecting just heavy rain this evening and overnight, with a few distant rumbles mixed in, maybe.....

 

Feels quite sticky outside when the sun is out and the wind isn't blowing 

[Supacell]

@Flash bang flash bang etc

I probably should have made it clearer. Will be aiming for Luton area as a rendezvous point for waiting to see what transpires, not a final destination. The idea is it will take me 100 miles closer to any action, and so I can be on it quicker. Although if it is a south coast event I will likely not get there in time. Hopefully things become clearer by the evening.

[Super_Uwe]

Sustained heavy rain and rumbles of thunder every few mins in Kingsbridge. Holidaymakers sheltering away!

Another loud boom of thunder as I type...

You would imagine there's some localised flooding in and around KB and Salcombe.

[Electricmumma]

Sitting here in bexhill, expecting a wave of storms initiating in France to creep close enough to just about see and then die, followed by storms that either initiate in the channel see Beachy head and blibble off north or storms that initiate just north of bexhill and are out of sight. 
 

here’s hoping I’m wrong 

[Super_Uwe]

Torrential rain and several large cracks of thunder. Does seem to be brightening up from the south at last

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Lance M said:

A very interesting outlook from Dan:

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-06-04

Sounds like it might miss me and be in France and then inland, but we'll see, I hope for early initiation obviously once in the channel just of shore this evening.

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Sounds like it might miss me and be in France and then inland, but we'll see, I hope for early initiation obviously once in the channel just of shore this evening.

Yes, be interesting to see more expert analysis of the fronts and bits and bobs when it gets nearer to the time, should get an area of initiation come up and rough timing of it rather than relying on Models.

[Sprites]

Probably won't have to water the garden for a couple of days, dam gastropods love it though. 

. 

[ChannelThunder]

Some nice Ac Cas etc amongst the decaying remains of this morning's Cherbourg storms, as it drifts over here. A nice clearing showing behind it on the satellite, so I'd imagine I'll be treated to some lovely thundery skies this afternoon with further pockets of Ac Cas and the like.

 

[sunnijim]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Sounds like it might miss me and be in France and then inland, but we'll see, I hope for early initiation obviously once in the channel just of shore this evening.

Trying to be positive as the feel of it out there now in humid sunshine does feel ripe.

Was a little puzzled at the warnings in the previous 24hrs as could never really see it myself given the dross beforehand ( low level cloud and patchy rain) and lack of trigger.

The dynamics on offer tonight appear much more promising.

However,the negative itch agrees.

I see big French storms getting to the Channel Isles,fading over the channel allowing some light showers to arrive on the South Coast and then exploding back to life North of Gatwick!

Distant lighning seen to my South and North kind of affair.

Prove me wrong Weather Gods!

[Rufus Butterfield]

Going to Bedford tonight to visit some family for a birthday and staying overnight, would it be worth bringing the camera gear?

[sheikhy]

Clear skies spreading northward from the south!currently approaching northampton!!is that the warmer thundery air goin north?!!

[Mapantz]

[sunnijim]

Picking apart the wording of the latest M.O forecast doesn't fill a coast dweller like me with too much optimism ( although you can overthink these things!)

'Thunderstorms will develop OVER England' 

This suggests channel development or imports might be off the agenda.

As I live a mile from the seafront it could be a tight squeeze to fit in with that narrative

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Does that stuff south of the main line come north, or swerve and go to the North sea and Benelux.

5 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Picking apart the wording of the latest M.O forecast doesn't fill a coast dweller like me with too much optimism ( although you can overthink these things!)

'Thunderstorms will develop OVER England' 

This suggests channel development or imports might be off the agenda.

As I live a mile from the seafront it could be a tight squeeze to fit in with that narrative

Same.

[Harry]

At the Kent coast today. The day has been a bit reminiscent of chasing in the plains. Thick low cloud and dampness this morning, now sunnier skies but a screaming wind.

I don’t have any firm views about how it’ll pan out but looking forward to radar watching tonight

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Does that stuff south of the main line come north, or swerve and go to the North sea and Benelux.

Neither really. A  few showers develop across the south coast - Dorset and eastwards. As destabilisation occurs, thunderstorms break out across the Midland's before turning in to a large mass of heavy rain. All about timing though, so it's just a radar watch imo.

[StormLoser]

While the mid/upper layers of air progress very slowly northwards, we have a strong, gusty low level wind pouring across Surrey from the north-east. 

Interesting to watch.

Visions of nice rotating supercells and tornados spring to mind for later on.   However, this is the UK...   (Oh no! A plastic garden chair just blew over...!!!  )

Edited June 4, 2022 by StormLoser

[Biggin]

Dull here this morning currently sunny with a breeze is it sposed to get humid later ?  Is the centre of the low moving W-E ?

[Eagle Eye]

Feels oddly like watching a Reed Timmer stream here, hopefully this is how homegrown French imports feel like because that's essentially what today is.

[samadamsuk]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Feels oddly like watching a Reed Timmer stream here, hopefully this is how homegrown French imports feel like because that's essentially what today is.

Bada bada bee bop da bop da bop! 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Bada bada bee bop da bop da bop! 

showaddywaddy!