June 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.4C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 21.3mm 27.7% of the monthly average.

Looking at the local forecast looks like we end up between 15.5C and 15.8C so it could sneak into our top ten warmest Junes. It may also sneak into the top ten driest as well.

[Summer Sun]

14.8c to the 24th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

So far this contest year, I have not been tracking the performance of consensus and the two normals 1981-2010 and 1991-2020. So here's where things stand. The contest was scored using legacy CET values Dec to Apr and v2.0 (all that now exists) in May and will be also in June. These tables show the actual values, then the errors, and the contest ranks of the entrants who have similar values for average error. This gives an approximate idea of how the "robots" are doing although their scores might have added up somewhat differently as the forecasters with those average errors ranked differently in specific months. This will be adjusted when average errors for the contest through June are available.  I have only compared the contest entrants who have not missed any months. A handful of others might rank better than these robots with one or two missing forecasts.

 

(a) actual values

ROBOT ______ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN

Consensus __ 4.8 __ 5.4 __ 5.6 __ 7.1 __ 8.4 _ 12.3 _ 15.1 

1981-2010 ___4.6 __ 4.4 __ 4.4 __ 6.6 __ 8.5 _ 11.7 _ 14.4

1991-2020 ___5.0 __ 4.7 __ 4.9 __ 6.7 __ 8.9 _ 11.9 _ 14.6

contest CET _ 6.4 __ 4.6 __ 6.8 __ 7.9 __ 9.1 _ 13.1 _ 14.9

 

(b) absolute errors

ROBOT _____ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN ___ average

Consensus __ 1.6 __ 0.8 __ 1.2 __ 0.8 __ 0.7 __ 0.8 __ 0.2 ____ 0.87

1981-2010 ___1.8 __ 0.2 __ 2.4 __ 1.3 __ 0.6 __ 1.4 __ 0.5 _____ 1.17

1991-2020 ___1.4 __ 0.1 __ 1.9 __ 1.2 __ 0.2 __ 1.2 __ 0.3 _____ 0.90

SUMMARY: Consensus was warmer than both normals for all months except Dec (where it was between them) and Apr (when it was below both). The actual value was warmer than both normals in Dec, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, and June, so the contest consensus was correctly placed in Feb, Mar, May and (marginally so) June. In December and April our consensus was too low, and in January and June it was too high. The overall performance of consensus was slightly better than the 1991-2020 normal and considerably better than the cooler 1981-2010 normal value. The lowest average error would have been achieved by any strategy of making forecasts around 1.2 above 1991-2020 averages (the results drop steadily from the 0.90 of 1991-2020 for each 0.1 increment, and the gain reverses starting at 1.3 above). The average error of those forecasts (1991-2020 + 1.2) would have been around 0.57 deg.  

 

(c) Contest ranks (comparing only entrants with seven of seven contests entered and notes to show rank including those with one missing forecast)

 

optimal strategy (91-20)+1.2 (avg error 0.57) __ 3rd (richie3846 0.50, freeze 0.51)

consensus (avg error 0.87) ___________________t-11th (three others with one missing forecast are better, t-14)

1991-2020 (avg error 0.90) ____________________ 13th (two others with one missing forecast are tied, 18th)

1981-2010 (avg error 1.17) ____________________t-28th (no additional from one missing forecast, t-33rd)

(Average error is well correlated with total score but not perfectly so, however it can be inferred that contest ranks overall for the three "robots" would be similar to the above.)

Obviously playing an optimal strategy is a good one, if you can guess in advance what that is; at the moment, any optimal strategy between adding 0.5 and 1.5 to 1991-2020 would put you pretty close to the lead held by freeze (as of June, freeze edged past Richie3846 on points but the latter still has lowest average error by .01, these two are doing better than the optimal strategy) and using that you could be well into the top ten, even just using 1991-2020 is good for 13th place in average error. Using 1981-2010 gets you no further into the table than middle ranks (55 are ranked based on at least five of seven entries). Since average error is not the only component of CET contest scoring, it would take a more rigorous analysis to work out the points totals for these automatic type strategies but they are bound to be close in rank to the average error. 

Going colder than 1981-2010 is what we call a sucker bet in the business (so why do you and I make them? nobody knows but the ghost of 2010).

Edited July 5, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffeild still at 15.4C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall up to 27.8mm 36.2% of the monthly average.

So after yesterdays showers we are now out of the top ten driest Junes for Sheffield. Looking at the local forecast gives the landing zone for the average temperature 15.5C to 15.8C. 15.8 would put us in the top ten just.

[Summer Sun]

14.8c to the 25th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Outlook suggests average even a little below average conditions for late June.. may see a drop in the CET rather than a rise.. my prediction is a final finish in the 14.4-14.6 degree range, very near average overall in a month that has delivered only fleeting heat to a localised few namely in the SE. 

[Don]

39 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Outlook suggests average even a little below average conditions for late June.. may see a drop in the CET rather than a rise.. my prediction is a final finish in the 14.4-14.6 degree range, very near average overall in a month that has delivered only fleeting heat to a localised few namely in the SE. 

It's strange that the Netweather temperature tracker has the June CET at 15.81C, a degree higher than Hadley.  The Netweather tracker is often above that of Hadley but not that much.

[reef]

I think it must be remembered now we're on CET v2.0 there might well be no corrections at the end of the month as they're essentially baked in. Indeed, the daily figures for June so far are currently populating the finalised data, so there's a good chance they're doing the corrections 'on the fly' so to speak, hence why some days' updates take a while.

[LetItSnow!]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Outlook suggests average even a little below average conditions for late June.. may see a drop in the CET rather than a rise.. my prediction is a final finish in the 14.4-14.6 degree range, very near average overall in a month that has delivered only fleeting heat to a localised few namely in the SE. 

Am I right in saying that for the north it's even been quite cool? I don't think the north/Scotland has any appreciable heat all month.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is currently close to 40 mm based on the known 36.3 mm to 24th, and 3-4 mm since then, and it continues to build slowly at least in northwest England, Wales, and Cornwall-Devon. Some of those areas will add 30-40 mm but the grid average now to end of 30th appears to be 15 mm, so the estimated EWP finish is 55 mm. 

[snowray]

3 hours ago, Don said:

It's strange that the Netweather temperature tracker has the June CET at 15.81C, a degree higher than Hadley.  The Netweather tracker is often above that of Hadley but not that much.

Yes very strange, it hardly moved up after the very warm spell, and I notice that PIT over in Sheffield is running 0.6c above Hadley, now that never happens, 0.1c- 0.3c higher is about as much as I would expect in June.

Anyway, its been mainly warm or very warm down this way, lots of sunshine and mostly dry.

[Don]

21 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes very strange, it hardly moved up after the very warm spell, and I notice that PIT over in Sheffield is running 0.6c above Hadley, now that never happens, 0.1c- 0.3c higher is about as much as I would expect in June.

Anyway, its been mainly warm or very warm down this way, lots of sunshine and mostly dry.

Not been bad up here either really.  I wonder if the Hadley CET will be amended upwards at the end of the month?

[richie3846]

23 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

So far this contest year, I have not been tracking the performance of consensus and the two normals 1981-2010 and 1991-2020. So here's where things stand. The contest was scored using legacy CET values Dec to Apr and v2.0 (all that now exists) in May and will be also in June. These tables show the actual values, then the errors, and the contest ranks of the entrants who have similar values for average error. This gives an approximate idea of how the "robots" are doing although their scores might have added up somewhat differently as the forecasters with those average errors ranked differently in specific months. This will be adjusted when average errors for the contest through June are available.  I have only compared the contest entrants who have not missed any months. A handful of others might rank better than these robots with one or two missing forecasts.

 

(a) actual values

ROBOT ______ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN

Consensus __ 4.8 __ 5.4 __ 5.6 __ 7.1 __ 8.4 _ 12.3 _ 15.1 

1981-2010 ___4.6 __ 4.4 __ 4.4 __ 6.6 __ 8.5 _ 11.7 _ 14.4

1991-2020 ___5.0 __ 4.7 __ 4.9 __ 6.7 __ 8.9 _ 11.9 _ 14.6

contest CET _ 6.4 __ 4.6 __ 6.8 __ 7.9 __ 9.1 _ 13.1 _ 14.6*

*current estimate to be adjusted

(b) absolute errors

ROBOT ______ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN ___ average

Consensus __ 1.6 __ 0.8 __ 1.2 __ 0.8 __ 0.7 __ 0.8 __ 0.5 _____ 0.91

1981-2010 ___1.8 __ 0.2 __ 2.4 __ 1.3 __ 0.6 __ 1.4 __ 0.2 _____ 1.13

1991-2020 ___1.4 __ 0.1 __ 1.9 __ 1.2 __ 0.2 __ 1.2 __ 0.0 _____ 0.86

SUMMARY: Not including June yet, consensus was warmer than both normals for all months except Dec (where it was between them) and Apr (when it was below both). The actual value was warmer than both normals in Dec, Feb, Mar, Apr and May, so the contest consensus was correctly placed in Feb, Mar and May. In December and April our consensus was too low, and in January it was too high. It looks like June might work out similar to January in this analysis. The overall performance of the 1991-2020 normal was best of the three robots; the contest consensus did better than the cooler 1981-2010 normal value. The lowest average error would have been achieved by any strategy of making forecasts between 0.5 to 1.2 above 1991-2020 averages (the results are just about the same in each case although the absolute peak is around +1.2) and the average error of those forecasts would have been around 0.64 deg. Before June a strategy of adding 1.2 was also best but gave a smaller average error (0.53). Therefore I show that in the summary but it will be adjusted to whatever is optimal after June when June ranks are known. 

 

(c) Contest ranks (approx)

optimal strategy (91-20)+1.3 (avg error 0.53) __ 2nd

1991-2020 (avg error 0.86) ____________________ 9th

consensus (avg error 0.91) ____________________11th

1981-2010 (avg error 1.13) ____________________21st

(Average error is well correlated with total score but not perfectly so, however it can be inferred that contest ranks overall for the three "robots" would be similar to the above.)

Obviously playing an optimal strategy is a good one, if you can guess in advance what that is; at the moment, any optimal strategy between adding 0.5 and 1.5 to 1991-2020 would put you pretty close to the lead held by richie3846 and well into the top ten, even just using 1991-2020 is good for 9th place in average error. 

Going colder than 1981-2010 is what we call a sucker bet in the business (so why do I make them? nobody knows)

Yep, this is exactly my strategy, I aim for a sensible number slightly above the average of the last 30 years. The exception to this is July, I've put in a figure over 18 because I believe the conditions across Europe and even parts of UK are 'dustbowl' and any heatwave coming out way could be severe IMO.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Am I right in saying that for the north it's even been quite cool? I don't think the north/Scotland has any appreciable heat all month.

No notable heat this month, we breached 25 degrees just on Thursday, a benchmark for what I would call a very warm day in the Lake District, but not the hot category - 28 degrees.

Temp wise this month has been very average here, nighttime minima has helped prop mean values up.

[Relativistic]

18 hours ago, Don said:

Not been bad up here either really.  I wonder if the Hadley CET will be amended upwards at the end of the month?

There won't be as end-of-month corrections are a thing of the past. As Reef pointed out, finalised daily data are posted on the fly now.

Edited June 27, 2022 by Relativistic

[Don]

55 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

There won't be as end-of-month corrections are a thing of the past. As Reef pointed out, finalised daily data are posted on the fly now.

I'm just wondering why there is such a big difference between Hadley and the Netweather tracker this month?

[Summer Sun]

14.9c to the 26th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.4C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 27.8mm 36.2% of the monthly average.

GFS now showing the rest of the week to warm to very warm here so should finish 15.6C to 15.8C

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.4C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall up to 28.7mm 37.3% of the monthly average.

GFs now showing slightly lower temps.  Now looks like we will end up at 15.5C to 15.6C.

[Roger J Smith]

Preliminary scoring for June EWP

Scoring is based on 57.1 mm end of month, this table will be adjusted when actual value known. 

The table is in order of annual scoring, the monthly results can be seen in the last column of the table. Those are subject to change, the results could be somewhere between 53 and 59 mm.

The average errors are ranked for anyone who has entered 4/7 or more contests. This lets in Wold Topper and Earthshine who were not ranked in May when 4/6 was the minimum. From now on, the ranking will depend on three contests short of the total to 9/12. 

change in ranks _ n c is "no change" or level with previous month ... -- -- is unranked previous month. 

 

ANNUAL CONTEST STANDINGS (subject to adjustments on 2 July)

 

Rank _ change _ Forecaster _____ Points ____ Avg error (rank) ___ June pts, rank 

_01 ___ up 1 ____ Bobd29 _________ 46.12 ___ 23.20 (4) _ down 1 __ 4.50 (24)

_02 ___ up 2 ____ Feb1991Blizzard_45.78 ___ 25.00 (5) _ down 1 __ 7.72 (11)

_03 ___ down 2 _ Freeze ___________45.66 ___ 21.60 (2) _ down 1 __ 3.09 (30)

_04 ___ down 1 _ The PIT __________ 44.15 ___ 22.57 (3) _ down 1 __ 5.21 (21) 

_05 ___ up 4 ____ Ed Stone ________ 43.44 ___ 26.26 (6) __ up 3 ____ 9.76 ( 2) 

_06 ___ up 2 ____ SLEETY __________ 43.30 ___ 28.63 (14)_ up 7 _____ 8.92 ( 6) 

_07 ___ down 2 _ Polar Gael ______ 43.12 ___ 27.30 (10) _ n. c. _____7.12 (13) 

_08 ___ up 14 ___ Reef _____________ 39.99 ___ 27.80 (12) _ up 5 ____ 9.52 ( 3) 

_09 ___ up 10 ___ Mulzy ____________39.91 ___ 27.29 (9) __ up 4 ____ 8.08 ( 9) 

_10 ___ up 5 ____ seaside60 _______ 39.72 ___ 27.22 (8) _ up 4 _____ 6.88 (14) 

_11 ___ up 10 ___ DR(S)NO _________39.54 ___ 28.49 (13) _ up 7 ____ 9.04 ( 4) 

_12 ___ up 8 _____J 10 ______________ 38.97 ___ 27.20 (7) __ up 8 ____ 8.44 ( 8.)

_13 ___ up 5 ____ Don ______________37.87 ___ 31.49 (21) _ up 5 ____ 5.92 (18) 

_14 ___ up 11 ___weather-history _37.62 ___ 29.74 (17) _ up 7 ____ 8.56 ( 7) 

_15 ___ down 8 _dancerwithwings_37.52 ___ 28.97 (15) _ down 7__3.32 (29) 

_16 ___ down 3 _ Mr Maunder ____ 37.10 ___ 27.54 (11) _ down 5__4.14 (26) 

_17 ___ down 5 _ Neil N ___________ 36.79 ___ 29.17 (16) _ down 5__3.78 (27) 

_18 ___ down 4 _ Jeff C _____________35.81 ___ 30.17 (18) _ down 2__2.86 (31) 

_19 ___ up 5 _ prolongedSnowLover _35.30 ____31.79 (22) _ up 6 ____ 5.44 (20) 

_20 ___down 14 _ Frigid ____________34.97 ___ 36.03 (30) _ down 7 __0.18 (44) 

_21 ___ up 5 ____ syed2878 ________34.71 ___ 34.79 (28) _ up 4 _____6.76 (15) 

_22 ___ down 5 _ Roger J Smith ____33.53 ___ 30.47 (19)_ down 14__0.90 (40) 

_23 ___ down 12 _virtualsphere ___ 33.52 ___ 32.69 (25) _ down 1 __5.21 (21) 

_24 ___ down 14 _DiagonalRedLine_33.47___ 31.15 (20) _ down 1 __ no fcst

_25 ___ down 9 _ davehsug ________33.21 ___ 35.26 (29) _ down 7 __ 0.54 (42) 

_26 ___ up 13 ___Midlands Ice Age_31.60 ___ 38.29 (37) _ up 5 _____ 8.98 ( 5) 

_27 ___ up 4 ___ summer8906 _____31.57 ___ 40.18 (41) _ up 3 _____ 6.16 (17) 

_28 ___ up 9 ___ Godber 1 _________ 30.80 ___ 37.34 (33) _ up 4 _____ 7.36 (12) 

_29 ___ down 6 _Weather26 _______30.12 ___ 38.69 (39) _ down 21__ 0.00 (45) 

_30 ___ up 2 ____ February1978 ___ 30.11 ___ 32.06 (23) _ up 3 _____ 4.74 (23) 

_31 ___ down 4 _ daniel* __________ 29.77^___ 32.67 (24) _ down 5__ 1.94 (35) 

_32 ___ up 4 ____ stargazer ________ 29.67 ___ 33.00 (26) _ up 3 _____ 5.68 (19) 

_33 ___ down 4 _noname_weather_29.56 ___ 37.54 (34) _ down 1 __ 2.17 (33) 

_34 ___ up 1 ___ summer blizzard_ 29.44 ___ 37.71 (35) _  up 1 _____ 5.09 (22) 

_35 ___ down 5 _ rwtwm __________ 28.96 ___ 36.69 (31) __ n. c. ______ 2.10 (34) 

_36 ___ down 2 _ Emmett Garland __ 27.58 ___ 38.49 (38) _ down 3 ____ 2.69 (32) 

_37 ___ up 4 ____ Wold Topper ____ 27.36 ___ 17.53 ( 1 ) _ -- -- ________ 6.40 (16) 

_38 ___ down 9 _ Norrance ________ 27.24 ___ 34.65 (3) _ down 2 _____ no fcst

_39 ___ down 6 _ SteveB ___________ 25.01 ___ 47.68 (48) _ down 3 ____ no fcst

_40 ___ up 10 ___shillitocettwo ____ 23.85 ___ 48.06 (50) _ down 2 ___10.00 ( 1)

_41 ___ down 1_ Stationary Front _ 23.75 ___ 38.14 (36) _ down 6 ____ 1.14 (39) 

_42 ___ down 4 _ stewfox __________ 22.79 ___ 45.06 (46) _ down 3 ____ no fcst

_43 ___ down 1_I Rem Atl 252 _____ 22.52 ___ 47.11 (47) __ n. c. ______ 4.26 (25) 

_44 ___ up 1 ____ snowray _________ 21.37 ___ 40.39 (42) __ down 1 ___ 3.66 (28)

_45 ___ down 2 _ jonboy ___________ 19.59 ___ 41.63 (43) __ down 4 ___ 1.77 (36)

_46 ___ n. c. ____ summer18 _______ 18.92 ___ 47.74 (49) __ down 3 ___ 1.48 (37)

_47 ___ down 3 _ Let It Snow! ______ 17.75 ___ 43.35 (45) __ down 5 ___ no fcst

_ from this point on, only those who entered June or who have a ranked avg error appear _

_49 ___ n. c. ____BlastFromThePast _16.28 ___ 43.26 (44) __ down 6 ___ 0.72 (41)

_53 ___ up 11 ___ Earthshine _______14.03 ___ 36.75 (32) _ -- -- ________ 7.84 (10)

_55 ___ down 1 _ coldest winter ____12.70 ___ 39.58 (40) _ down 6 ___ 1.26 (38)

 

________________________________________________

^ daniel* has 33.47 points with ineligible 4d late May forecast (3.80) and an avg error of 29.26 mm (counting the 8.8 mm)

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Hadley stuck once again, having not updated since the 26th. They've had a very poor end to June for whatever reason on the updates.

[reef]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Hadley stuck once again, having not updated since the 26th. They've had a very poor end to June for whatever reason on the updates.

As mentioned above, they're posting finalised data on the fly so there are occasional delays but it should mean no corrections at the end.

[The PIT]

41 minutes ago, reef said:

As mentioned above, they're posting finalised data on the fly so there are occasional delays but it should mean no corrections at the end.

Must be a big fly they've got to swat.

[The PIT]

Right Sunny olde Sheffield still on 15.4C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall up to 32.1mm 41.7% of the monthly average.

Beginning to look like a possible average June temperature wise. Unless we get some stormy weather a dry month again.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, The PIT said:

Right Sunny olde Sheffield still on 15.4C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall up to 32.1mm 41.7% of the monthly average.

Beginning to look like a possible average June temperature wise. Unless we get some stormy weather a dry month again.

A marked NW- SE divide rainfall wise this month, the last few days have brought appreciable rain here.. but likely to only end up near or just a tad above average probably as we have had a fair amount of dry weather as well.