Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on

[philglossop]

I've been looking at this invest - clearly its Lee in the making and the models last evening were taking it just north of Virgin Islands. Then it curves away missing the Bahamas and USA but Bermuda could could be in the firing line.

Lowest forecast pressure I've seen is 913mb and a high end cat 4 by next weekend but it's possible it could increase to cat 5. 

Luckily there's a front due to come out eastern US next weekend to save them but this looks like the Hurricane of the season to watch. 

[Man With Beard]

Don't know where to put this...

 

[Coastal Eddy]

Question for Hurricane experts

I noticed on latest NHC forecast Franklin has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm again after going Ex tropical

If this happens will it maintain the same name and how unusual is this ?

Thanks in advance

 

[matty40s]

Next biggie is Nigel, following Lee

Making plans for Nigel eh..

 

[Thunder Snow]

On 07/09/2023 at 00:31, Coastal Eddy said:

Question for Hurricane experts

I noticed on latest NHC forecast Franklin has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm again after going Ex tropical

If this happens will it maintain the same name and how unusual is this ?

Thanks in advance

 

Yes it would retain the name seen it quite a few times over the years

[karyo]

Amazing to see how active this hurricane season is, considering the strengthening el nino. I guess it shows that the very warm Atlantic can override some of the el nino effects. certainly something that we will be seeing more and more in the future with the seas getting warmer.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

Amazing to see how active this hurricane season is, considering the strengthening el nino. I guess it shows that the very warm Atlantic can override some of the el nino effects. certainly something that we will be seeing more and more in the future with the seas getting warmer.

 

Instead of the Nino providing a 'Special Heat Source' this year ALL Ocean Basins are pumping out extraordinary heat (0.4c above average for 60S to 60N?) & that's before the Arctic Basin releases its 'small El Nino's worth of energy' before it can re-freeze....quite something eh?

[Metwatch]

Part of the excessively warm North Atlantic state

[DR(S)NO]

Hope ok to add link

Could be a doozy of a season!!

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweather-sounding-alarm-bells-super-charged-hurricane-season-possible-in-2024/1623587

 

[karyo]

Accuweather has issued their forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. A combination of a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina is expected to give a lot of fuel to the hurricane season.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/94d900bc-eae8-49f2-bdf5-09e2aace931a?utm_source=connatix&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=link