Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on

[matty40s]

 

[karyo]

Today, all the models have followed the ECM/ICON lead by shifting the track of 98L east.  Cuba-southern Florida-Atlantic.

Only the GFS still takes the storm to the GOM but even that has shifted east considerably.

[Thunder Snow]

We now have tropical depression 9

[DeepSnow]

Is there a tropical depression close to the Canaries? I've seen a few forecasts now saying where I am on holiday in Grand Canaria is suppose to get some torrential rain and storms over the weekend associated with a tropical wave/depression? 

[Thunder Snow]

We also have tropical depression 10

[Allseasons-Si]

2 hours ago, DeepSnow said:

Is there a tropical depression close to the Canaries? I've seen a few forecasts now saying where I am on holiday in Grand Canaria is suppose to get some torrential rain and storms over the weekend associated with a tropical wave/depression? 

 

1 hour ago, Thunder Snow said:

We also have tropical depression 10

Yes it looks like TD 10 and there is also TS Gaston but both shouldn't effect the Canaries

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

TD 9 could become a Cat 3 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Florida.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[karyo]

3 hours ago, DeepSnow said:

Is there a tropical depression close to the Canaries? I've seen a few forecasts now saying where I am on holiday in Grand Canaria is suppose to get some torrential rain and storms over the weekend associated with a tropical wave/depression? 

Tropical depression 10 has formed between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde islands. It is moving northwards currently but it should shift westwards in a few days so unlikely to reach the Canary islands. However, the Canary islands may get some showery activity associated with this system.

 

[DeepSnow]

Ok thanks  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[matty40s]

Florida may get Ian not Hermine...

[Thunder Snow]

58 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Florida may get Ian not Hermine...

Yep TD10 got hermine

[matty40s]

31 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Yep TD10 got hermine

He he!!

[karyo]

Ian is strengthening in the central Caribbean. He should reach hurricane status by Monday according to the NHC, well before making landfall in western Cuba. 

Central pressure: 1003 mb

Sustained winds: 45 mph

[Thunder Snow]

34 minutes ago, karyo said:

Ian is strengthening in the central Caribbean. He should reach hurricane status by Monday according to the NHC, well before making landfall in western Cuba. 

Central pressure: 1003 mb

Sustained winds: 45 mph

I think Ian will strengthen rapidly 

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Thunder Snow said:

I think Ian will strengthen rapidly 

Yes the environment is condusive for that. The track after is not clear but a US landfall for sure.

[Nick F]

GFS continues to be further west in track than EC on its 00z/06z runs, both agree on a Florida Gulf coast landfall, but where is uncertain for now. The NHC cone of possible paths quite wide area covering all of Florida, though its current expected path makes landfall around Tampa.

Must say ECMWF has been much more reliable with track of hurricanes, Fiona a good example, GFS been too far west at range.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Nick F

[weatherobsuk]

Launch Control at Cape Canaveral aren't taking any chances with the TS Ian forecast for the next few days having Artemis 1 still on the launch-pad, the expected launch date was Tues 27th but they're now rolling Artemis 1 back into the VAB to ride-out the storm and aim for a preliminary launch date of October 2nd if all remains fine.

[DeepSnow]

Hermine is producing a lot of rain here in the Canaries despite not being over us, red warnings out for 100-150mm of rain today.

[Typhoon John]

There is a red 70% chance of new formation in the next 48 hours out in the Atlantic that needs watching.  Still at 70% chance out to 5 days.

[karyo]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon John said:

There is a red 70% chance of new formation in the next 48 hours out in the Atlantic that needs watching.  Still at 70% chance out to 5 days.

Yes but even if a tropical depression forms, it is likely to be short lived because of wind shear. Also, it is expected to start to move north so not of interest to any land.

[matty40s]

 

[Thunder Snow]

2 areas of interest currently in the Atlantic, are they likely to turn into anything major.

[karyo]

3 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

2 areas of interest currently in the Atlantic, are they likely to turn into anything major.

My eyes are on the one southeast of the Windward islands. Although it is currently given less chance of development, is in an interesting position with the caribbean on the horizon.

[Don]

After an exceptionally quiet start, I wonder if this season will reach the close to normal category by the end?