Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on

[karyo]

... and we have Nicole with 45mph sustained winds. Nicole is expected to strengthen as it heads west towards Florida. It is very rare to have a storm moving westwards in this location in November!

[matty40s]

 

[weatherobsuk]

The folks at NASA will be thrilled with 'Nicole', having just rolled out Artemis1 again for what was supposed to be the next launch opportunity on the 14th. 

[matty40s]

Is it all over now??

So far..

 

[Thunders]

I know this is a bit late but some cool radar of hurricane Ian just before landfall

[summer blizzard]

So just looking at my early thoughts on the hurricane season. 

Best ENSO, PDO and QBO analogues IMO are 1972, 1986, 2009, 2014, 2018. 

1972 - 7/3/0 

1986 - 6/4/0 

2009 - 9/3/2

2014 - 8/6/2

2018 - 15/8/2

Ajusting for the core Aug-Oct period we get 

1972 - 4/2/0 

1986 - 3/2/0 

2009 - 8/2/2

2014 - 7/5/2

2018 - 12/6/2

Worth saying that the West African Monsoon operates on a ~20 year cycle and we entered an active phase around 2010 so it may bias us towards something more like 2018 however if we operate on a median excluding the outliers then it looks like a poor season albeit radar captures a lot of tropical storm rubbish these days. Nevertheless, i shall lean towards a season of death in the core Cape Verde season, 6/4/1 for the Aug-Oct period. If we allow for 1 storm a month outside that then we may hit 9/4/1 as a total season goal.

In terms of landfall risk, that's relatively low during August and October with a +PNA trough however analogues do advertise a -PNA during September enhancing the Cape Verde risk for peak season. June, July and November also tend to see a higher Carribean risk.

 

[summer blizzard]

Tropical Storm Cindy is alive but like Bret, forecast to be sheared to death in a few days. 

Update on my prediction is that thanks to the active formation in June even if fodder, my numbers are tracking at 11/4/1 for the season. 

[karyo]

Colorado State University has updated their Atlantic hurricane season forecast. They are now going for an above average season, they expect that the warm Atlantic SSTs will override some of the effects of the El Nino.

 

[Derecho]

7 hours ago, karyo said:

Colorado State University has updated their Atlantic hurricane season forecast. They are now going for an above average season, they expect that the warm Atlantic SSTs will override some of the effects of the El Nino.

 

Interesting, I expect it to be a below average season unless the El Nino is weak or we get a Modoki type El Nino

[karyo]

8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Interesting, I expect it to be a below average season unless the El Nino is weak or we get a Modoki type El Nino

It will be interesting to see if the very warm SSTs can dominate the atmospheric pattern. An insight to future El Nino seasons that will more and more often coinside with Atlantic marine heatwaves.

[Derecho]

10 minutes ago, karyo said:

It will be interesting to see if the very warm SSTs can dominate the atmospheric pattern. An insight to future El Nino seasons that will more and more often coinside with Atlantic marine heatwaves.

The big issue with an El Nino is that the Caribbean often sees higher wind shear which inhibits hurricane formation regardless of SSTS. The modoki events of 2003 and 2004 however show that an active hurricane season can occur.

I think during a Modoki the areas of high wind shear must differ compared to a typical east based Nino.

[bluearmy]

SST around the n Caribbean and nw towards florida and into the gulf are notably above normal 

that’s a lot of food for any storm on the right track (or wrong if you live there) 

[karyo]

And we have Dom in the centre of north Atlantic. No risk to land but he may come close to the Azores at some point.

It looks like the warm Atlantic will produce a number of storms this season. The area around western Africa and cabo verde also looks quite active.

[karyo]

A week later and Don is still going and roughly located in the same part of north Atlantic . Not expected to impact land.

A tropical low has formed in central Atlantic and although there is dry air to the north of it, warmer than average SSTs should help it to gradually strengthen into a tropical depression.

Finally, the Weather Company has updated their seasonal forecast and (like the Colorado University) they expect an above average hurricane season. They are basing this upgrade on the strong startr to the season coupled with the very warm Atlantic waters.

[Thunder Snow]

Don becomes a hurricane 

[Metwatch]

23 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Don becomes a hurricane 

@Don

 

[matty40s]

2 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

Don becomes a hurricane 

Without portfolio...unless the sea temps make him do something interesting and unique 

[Don]

11 hours ago, Metwatch said:

@Don

 

@Metwatch
It was the hot curry Friday night!

[matty40s]

Is this what is meant by winding yourself up...

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]