Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

2002 and 2013 are the most recent seasons to wait until September to produce a hurricane. 2002 then produced four with two majors. 2013 produced only two hurricanes, no majors.

Essentially we are probably looking at little meaningful activity even if we produce weak crud.

The forecast is for an active season, so why nothing happening. 

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

The forecast is for an active season, so why nothing happening. 

2013 had the same -PDO, late multi year Nina signature. I wonder if you can just get to a coupled point where you kill the tropics completely.

[matty40s]

You tell that to Dallas...

The moisture is still there, just not the windfields .

 

[SnowBear]

12 minutes ago, matty40s said:

You tell that to Dallas...

The moisture is still there, just not the windfields .

 

Yes, even if a disturbance doesn't make tropical storm status it can still collect a huge amount of water and dump it on land. 

13" of rain in 12 hrs, that's as much as some Cat1+ hurricanes drop. 

No wind, no storm surge, just mountains of rain! 

[damianslaw]

48 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

2013 had the same -PDO, late multi year Nina signature. I wonder if you can just get to a coupled point where you kill the tropics completely.

Hoping for no Oct 13 to Feb 14 period, it was one long very wet storm! 

[SnowBear]

Chances for anything forming from the current activity around Cabo Verde Islands dropping, reduced showery activity and as such the chances are now a low 10% in 24hrs, 20% over 5 days. 

We wait some more. 

[matty40s]

3 hours ago, SnowBear said:

Chances for anything forming from the current activity around Cabo Verde Islands dropping, reduced showery activity and as such the chances are now a low 10% in 24hrs, 20% over 5 days. 

We wait some more. 

I think it's usually 10 days from that area to hit US territory or Cancun

[SnowBear]

8 hours ago, matty40s said:

I think it's usually 10 days from that area to hit US territory or Cancun

Yes, can be 10 days or even more if it goes a wandering lol

 

A little more activity though low chances for now, 3 areas being noted. 

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

Will the tropics wake up with a roar? 

Edited August 23, 2022 by SnowBear

[WillinGlossop]

It's The Atlantic Hurricane Season's Least Active Start In 30 Years | Weather Underground

WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM

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But here's why this notably slow start doesn't necessarily mean a season without impactful storms.

Interesting article especially with Andrew 1992 and 1988 Gilbert being late severe hurricanes in seasons with late starts 

[damianslaw]

Interesting to note la nina increases chance of stronger start. We may go from zero to full on in a short space of time.

[karyo]

35 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting to note la nina increases chance of stronger start. We may go from zero to full on in a short space of time.

Yes, but the start of the hurricane season was nearly 3 months ago.

[Don]

21 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Hoping for no Oct 13 to Feb 14 period, it was one long very wet storm! 

No, I do not like the sound of that at all!! 

[SnowBear]

14 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, but the start of the hurricane season was nearly 3 months ago.

I don't think you can compare our notion of spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons to hurricanes. A hurricane "season" is when they may occur, but it doesn't mean to say it will start in any particular month, have a certain number of storms, etc. It may start early, late or even have storms completely outside of the expected months or "season", we may see one storm per month or 3 or even 4 storms all active at the same time. 

Many factors need to be right for them to form, sheer, humidity, sea surface temperatures, the right air coming from the Sahara and so on. 

We have also seen a -1°c+ Sea surface temperature anomaly off the coast of Africa, this is now reducing in size and more favourable 26°c+ water is covering a larger area. 

What it does mean is that whilst conditions may not be right at the moment and we have a subdued start to the "season", once the storms do start to appear in favourable conditions it's often seen that the large available energy from the sea surface can be tapped into and as a result stronger storms may occur. 

An earlier or near normal season would have seen that energy being slowly used as the season progresses. 

[SnowBear]

For anyone interested in the sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and the hurricane belt, this page shows the current temperatures and the anomalies. 

Remember tropical storms are generally formed in 26°c plus sea surface temperature areas. 

Reynolds SST Analysis

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

[summer blizzard]

Aug-Oct has 80% of the activity.

Regarding the lemon near the Caribbean, 3 of 4 GFS runs developed this today.

[SnowBear]

Nothing much has changed, both current areas of interest have a 20% chance over 5 days still. 

So we wait.... 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Nothing much has changed, both current areas of interest have a 20% chance over 5 days still. 

So we wait.... 

And the sleepy season continues.....

[SnowBear]

Thinks seem to be livening up a little bit now, four areas of interest. 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad and elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Central Atlantic: Shower activity has become less organized during the past several hours in association with a small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while the low meanders over the central Atlantic. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea: A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of the week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Some gradual development of the system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[matty40s]

 

[aggy]

Currently in Mexico  

hoping the 60% area is a fish 

the area closest to us I don’t think will come to anything thankfully 

[SnowBear]

We have a high possible now, the area in the central Atlantic is now 70% over 5 days. 

//

1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad and elongated area of low pressure is located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased somewhat since yesterday, it currently lacks organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while moving toward the west and then west-northwest at around 10 mph, toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

//

[SnowBear]

Certainly beginning to look like things are waking up, we now have a good chance of seeing tropical depression status being attained for the red area indicated on the graphic. Currency at 50% chance in the next 48 hrs and 80% over 5 days. 

The yellow area off the coast of Africa is currently at a low chance of 10% in 24hrs, 30% over 5 days. 

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Although environmental conditions ahead of the system are currently only marginal favorable, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward Islands.

Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Edited August 29, 2022 by SnowBear
Spelling

[damianslaw]

About time something happens, have we ever had to wait until September for first storm of the season?

[Don]

19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

About time something happens, have we ever had to wait until September for first storm of the season?

I thought we had a cat 1 hurricane at some point?  I think 1992 had a quieter start than this year.

[SnowBear]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I thought we had a cat 1 hurricane at some point?  I think 1992 had a quieter start than this year.

Bonnie reached Cat3 in early July, it was an Atlantic to Pacific traveller, or crossover hurricane.