Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on

[karyo]

Have we already seen the peak of this year's hurricane season? If so, then it is the quietest I can remember!

Particularly notable that the GOM has been dead almost throughout.

[Don]

2 hours ago, karyo said:

Have we already seen the peak of this year's hurricane season? If so, then it is the quietest I can remember!

Particularly notable that the GOM has been dead almost throughout.

Possibly but like you say, that wouldn't have been much of a hurricane season this year and possibly one of the quietest on record?!  However, whatever happens now, I cannot see this being a strong season as was forecast?

[karyo]

39 minutes ago, Don said:

Possibly but like you say, that wouldn't have been much of a hurricane season this year and possibly one of the quietest on record?!  However, whatever happens now, I cannot see this being a strong season as was forecast?

Indeed, there should be some activity left for the next few weeks but normally it nose dives in October so a below average season is likely now.

[matty40s]

Portugal is about to be hit by the remnants of Danielle. There is a mass of moisture arriving, indicated by this river level mist moving through the central channel in Lisbon.

【LIVE】 Live Cam Panorama of Lisbon | SkylineWebcams

WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

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Panoramic view of the port area of Lisbon Live cam

 

[Thunder Snow]

We have tropical depression 7

[matty40s]

Which could well become Fiona very swiftly.

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/weather/2022/09/14/tropical-depression-seven-become-named-storm-fiona-florida-track-models-path-forecast-weathertiger/10376597002/

[WillinGlossop]

On 11/09/2022 at 16:35, matty40s said:

Portugal is about to be hit by the remnants of Danielle. There is a mass of moisture arriving, indicated by this river level mist moving through the central channel in Lisbon.

【LIVE】 Live Cam Panorama of Lisbon | SkylineWebcams

WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

---

Panoramic view of the port area of Lisbon Live cam

 

Off there (Lisbon) tomorrow for 5 days.. forecast temperatures recovering to 27-32c sunny and dry after their deluge over the last 3/4 days… lookslike they’ve had 3-4 inches of rain ️ 

Portugal – Floods and Landslides Cause Severe Damage in Manteigas – FloodList

FLOODLIST.COM

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by WillinGlossop

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Interesting to see if future runs follow suit, GFS 18z with a biggy perilously close to the Carolinas coastline 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Both GFS and ECM sniffing out action in the GOM

 

Edited September 19, 2022 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Ladyofthestorm]

I'm finding this incredibly intriguing this year. We haven't had many triple dip la Nina years on the decades gone by, but it looks like using analogue years maybe fruitless. 

An increase in hurricane activity in North Atlantic is characteristic.... Yet here we are in an unprecedented lull. 

Obviously other factors driving this.. maybe oceanic rather than atmospheric. Maybe cooler denser fresh water from melting ice caps softening the waters as to speak. 

 

 

 

[karyo]

9 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Both GFS and ECM sniffing out action in the GOM

 

Yes, at long last something meaningful is showing up! Both the ECM and the GFS agree on a hurricane in the GOM in 9 days time! Still very far away of course to have any certainty in this but the NHC has already identified the area of disturbed weather that is currently southeast of the Leeward islands. 

[Derecho]

3 hours ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

I'm finding this incredibly intriguing this year. We haven't had many triple dip la Nina years on the decades gone by, but it looks like using analogue years maybe fruitless. 

An increase in hurricane activity in North Atlantic is characteristic.... Yet here we are in an unprecedented lull. 

Obviously other factors driving this.. maybe oceanic rather than atmospheric. Maybe cooler denser fresh water from melting ice caps softening the waters as to speak. 

 

 

 

 

I think it may be about to pick up though. Hurricane Fiona is quickly strengthening and both EC and GFS are hinting at something significant developing over the GOM over the weekend. The drop in tropical Atlantic SSTs anomalies over the summer along with Saharan dust stunted early development but a major GOM hurricane at the end of September and a busy October would soon turn this season into an above average one.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Thunder Snow]

11 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think it may be about to pick up though. Hurricane Grace is quickly strengthening and both EC and GFS are hinting at something significant developing over the GOM over the weekend. The drop in tropical Atlantic SSTs anomalies over the summer along with Saharan dust stunted early development but a major GOM hurricane at the end of September and a busy October would soon turn this season into an above average one.

Do you mean  Fiona is quickly streghthing?

[Derecho]

25 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Do you mean  Fiona is quickly streghthing?

Yup, not sure where I got Grace from!

[Thunder Snow]

Looks like we are about to have tropical depression 8 over the north Atlantic 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Thunder Snow

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[matty40s]

Interestingly, this could be the news maker.

Lots of northerly shear to deal with yet, but looks ominous

....for somewhere...

 

However, tropical storm Gaston has nipped in and pinched the next name. Only the Azores needs to watch this one.

 

[Thunder Snow]

Has someone turned the Atlantic switch on loads of areas of interest 

[Don]

43 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Has someone turned the Atlantic switch on loads of areas of interest 

It's like it has woken up and thought, 'Oh no, I've overslept' and is now in manic mode trying to catch up!!

[Thunder Snow]

49 minutes ago, Don said:

It's like it has woken up and thought, 'Oh no, I've overslept' and is now in manic mode trying to catch up!!

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Don said:

It's like it has woken up and thought, 'Oh no, I've overslept' and is now in manic mode trying to catch up!!

It didn't set up the alarm clock!

The question is will the GOM wake up? That's what can produce the creme de la creme of hurricanes. 98L has a chance to make it to the GOM but we will know by the weekend when the system properly forms and the models get a better idea of the atmospheric pattern ahead of it.

[matty40s]

 

22 hours ago, Don said:

It's like it has woken up and thought, 'Oh no, I've overslept' and is now in manic mode trying to catch up!!

 

[summer blizzard]

ASCAT has confirmed a closed low. TD likely to be declared tonight.

[Don]

I'm starting to wonder if the Hurricane season will run on late this year?

Edited September 22, 2022 by Don

[karyo]

Up to this morning all the models were taking 98L to the GOM with a US landfall. However, the 12z ECM and ICON have shifted the track east with the storm passing over Cuba, southern Florida and then the Atlantic. As a result, it develops less due to land interaction.